The most eye-catching game of the round of 16 takes place on Sunday night, as Belgium take on Portugal. Jake Osgathorpe previews the contest and provides a best bet.
Euro 2020 betting tips: Belgium v Portugal
2pts Belgium to win in 90 minutes at 6/4 (General)
Arguably the standout tie of the round of 16, with the world’s number one ranked side taking on the reigning European champions.
For what is a cracking clash, it is somewhat disappointing that its being played in Seville, the venue with arguably the worst pitch at the Euros and the location with the most extreme heat.
Kick-off time: 20:00 BST, Sunday
TV Channel: ITV 1
Venue: Estadio La Cartuja - Seville, Spain
Belgium 7/5 | Draw 23/10 | Portugal 19/10
Red Devils to come out of second gear
Roberto Martinez’s side made light work of Group B, dismantling Russia and Finland with consummate ease either side of a hard-fought win in Copenhagen against Denmark.
They qualified without their star players being mainstays, as Axel Witsel, Eden Hazard and Kevin De Bruyne were all recovering from injuries.
The trio played the full 90 in the final group game, suggesting they are back to full fitness, which spells trouble for Portugal.
De Bruyne and Hazard couldn’t ask for a better front man to play behind, with Romelu Lukaku having a sensational tournament for Belgium.
The Inter man has netted three times at Euro 2020 so far, averaging 0.50 xG per 95 minutes, and is the obvious danger man for the Red Devils. Pepe and Ruben Dias, beware.
Portugal defence susceptible
The Cristiano Ronaldo-led defending champions scraped through the ‘group of death’ in third place, with their only win coming against Hungary in the group opener.
Against the better sides, Fernando Santos’s Seleção have struggled defensively, conceding six times when facing France and Germany.
They allowed 2.32 xGA in Munich against the 2014 world champions, before conceding chances equating to 1.81 xGA against the reigning world champions in the final group game.
With the likes of Nélson Semedo and Raphaël Guerreiro playing at full back – two attack minded players – and an ancient Pepe partnering Ruben Dias, the Portuguese defence isn’t as mean as it has been in past tournaments.
This game could become a shoot-out between two average defences, but even that wouldn’t suit Portugal.
While they scored seven times through three group games, three of those goals were penalties. It is unlikely that they will continue to be awarded penalties at that rate throughout the tournament, and their non-penalty xGF per game of 1.40 is underwhelming.
It is worth mentioning heading into this game that Cristiano Ronaldo is just one goal away from breaking the all time record for most international goals - he has an implied 44% chance of doing so in Seville according to the bookmakers.
🔝🌎 Not since 1980 has a European been at the top of the standings for most international goals, when the legendary Ferenc Puskas was replaced after 27 years at the helm.
— Sporting Life Football & Infogol (@InfogolApp) June 23, 2021
🤯 Cristiano Ronaldo is 36 clear of Lionel Messi and 40 ahead of the nearest active European (Lewandowski) pic.twitter.com/HhyZhbJLjR
Belgium again underestimated
In what has become a theme throughout Euro 2020, Belgium again appeared to have been underestimated by the bookmakers.
Yes, they have a vulnerable backline the same as Portugal, but they have the greater attacking threat and the capacity to control the midfield battle.
While reigning champions Portugal do warrant respect, their performances so far against two elite teams have been disappointing, especially defensively.
The Red Devils are the more well-rounded team with a true identity under Martinez, whereas Portugal are a team in limbo; unsure whether to stick with the defensive approach that won them the competition in 2016 or utilise the new attacking talent within the squad and play on the front foot.
With KDB and Eden Hazard now back, they will be able to unpick a deep-lying block if Portugal set up in that manner, while if this becomes a shoot-out, their added forward quality should tell.
Factor in that the Belgians head to Seville having had two days extra rest and a less taxing and draining group, and the 6/4 about a BELGIUM WIN IN 90 MINUTES does start to appeal even more.
Belgium v Portugal best bets and score prediction
- 2pts Belgium to win in 90 minutes at 6/4 (General)
Score prediction: Belgium 2-1 Portugal (Sky Bet odds: 8/1)
Odds correct 1200 BST (25/06/21)
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