Football betting tips: Champions League
2pts Ian Maatsen 1+ total shots at 5/4 (Unibet)
1.5pts Aston Villa to win at 23/20 (General)
BuildABet @ 21/1
- Aston Villa to win
- Maatsen 2+ total shots
- Maatsen 2+ tackles
“We are top of the league, say we are top of the league!” sang no one at Villa Park after a 2-0 win over Bologna made it three out of three in the Champions League for Unai Emery’s side.
They should sing it though.
These are halcyon days for Aston Villa, so much so that a first small blip of the season can very much be written-off as exactly that.
The home draw with Bournemouth will still sting, conceding a 96th-minute equaliser in a game they dominated (xG: AVL 1.81-0.31 BOU), the Carabao Cup exit to Crystal Palace won’t given Emery’s refreshingly honest admission about where that competition ranks in his list of priorities, and Sunday’s late collapse to lose 4-1 at Tottenham will probably hurt just about enough to focus minds for a trip to Belgium.
What are the best bets?
Club Brugge have faced two established European opponents thus far, sandwiching a hard-fought 1-0 win at Sturm Graz with a 3-0 loss at home to Borussia Dortmund and 3-1 defeat at AC Milan.
In fairness they put up decent resistance on both occasions, with all of Dortmund’s goals coming after the 75th minute, and Milan having to work similarly hard despite the Belgian club being down to 10 men for most of the game.
Domestically they already trail leaders Genk, a side who failed to make it out of their Conference League group last season, by seven points having drawn three and lost three of their opening 13 matches.
All told, we ought not overthink this contest.
There is very little to indicate ASTON VILLA will not WIN this match, with it all too easy to overreact to their chastening defeat in north London.
At odds-against quotes I’m prepared to keep things simple and back them at around 23/20, a touch shorter than Dortmund, but worth taking.
Maatsen the man
Having spoken nearly as much about Germany's Schwarzgelben as Villa in this preview, why change it up now?
During his loan spell with BVB in the second half of last season IAN MAATSEN scored three goals and provided two assists in just 23 appearances, a consistent attacking threat from left-back.
He has been slowly introduced to the Villa team this season since joining from Chelsea in the summer, starting just three games, and was superb in playing the full 90 minutes against Bologna last month.
The Dutchman again played a full part in the Carabao Cup defeat by Palace last week, having two shots on goal. Here we're looking to back him to have just 1+ TOTAL SHOTS.
The defenders of Milan and Dortmund registered a combined eight shots on goal across their two meetings with Brugge, with more (five) coming from open play than at set-pieces.
Half the total attempts were made by left-backs, which makes the 5/4 about Maatsen having an effort towards goal a serious runner.
Team news
Aston Villa striker Ollie Watkins could drop out for Jhon Duran, who started and scored in the last Champions League game against Bologna.
Villa's only confirmed injury absentee is Ross Barkley, with an otherwise fully-fit squad, although Morgan Rogers is doubtful after limping off against Tottenham.
Brugge could be without Gustaf Nilsson after he missed the weekend win at Leuven.
Raphael Onyedika is suspended following his red card in Milan so Hugo Vetlesen is likely to come in.
Predicted line-ups
Club Brugge: Mignolet; Seys, Ordonez, Mechele, De Cuyper; Jashari, Vetlesen; Skov Olsen, Vanaken, Tzolis; Vermant.
Aston Villa: Martinez; Konsa, Carlos, Torres, Maatsen; Onana, Tielemans; McGinn, Rogers, Ramsey; Duran.
Match facts
- Club Brugge have never previously faced Aston Villa in any competition. They are winless in 14 European games (inc. qualifiers) against English clubs, drawing three and losing 11 since a 1-0 win over Chelsea in the Cup Winners’ Cup in 1995.
- Aston Villa’s last meeting with a Belgian opponent was in 1981-82 European Cup semi-final against RSC Anderlecht, winning 1-0 at home and drawing 0-0 away on their way to lifting the trophy that year.
- Club Brugge have lost their last three home UEFA Champions League matches, failing to score in each game while conceding nine goals. They have only lost four in a row once, between 2016 and 2018.
- Aston Villa have won their first three UEFA Champions League matches without conceding a goal. Only three teams have won their first four games: Milan in 1993, Paris SG in 1994 and Juventus in 1995, none of whom did so with a clean sheet in each game.
- Across Club Brugge’s last 15 UEFA Champions League matches, they have either conceded 2+ goals (nine games, 35 conceded) or kept a clean sheet (six games). Since the start of 2022-23, only Internazionale (63%) have a higher clean sheet rate than Brugge (6/11, 55%) among teams to feature in more than one campaign.
- The only two teams in the UEFA Champions League this season who have both had the number of shots they have faced are Aston Villa (41) and Club Brugge (40).
- Aston Villa manager Unai Emery has faced Belgian opponents four times before in the UEFA Champions League, keeping a clean sheet each time (W3 D1) – he has won his last three games by an aggregate score of 16-0 (Valencia 7-0 Genk in 2011, Anderlecht 0-4 PSG and PSG 5-0 Anderlecht both in 2017).
- Aston Villa midfielder Amadou Onana has completed 51 of his 52 pass attempts while under high-intensity pressure in the UEFA Champions League this season (98.1%). Of players to attempt at least 20+ such passes, this was the highest completion rate of any player across the first three matchdays this term.
- Among goalkeepers to play 2,500+ minutes in UEFA Champions League history, Club Brugge’s Simon Mignolet has the worst minutes per goal conceded ratio (one every 46 minutes). He did keep a clean sheet in his last game against Aston Villa back in February 2016 in a 6-0 Premier League win with Liverpool.
- Morgan Rogers has completed 16 dribbles for Aston Villa in the UEFA Champions League this season, with this the most on record by an English player (since 2003-04) through the opening three games of a single campaign.
Odds correct at 1030 GMT (05/11/24)
More from Sporting Life
- Fixtures, results and live scores
- Expert xG analysis and features
- Transfer news and done deals
- Football and other sports tips
- Download our free iOS and Android app
- Podcasts and video content
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.
