Jake Osgathorpe brings you his best bets for Sunday's action in the Premier League.
- Jake's Predictions (before this weekend): Staked 344.75pts | Returned 378.92pts | P/L +34.17pts | ROI 10%
Football betting tips: Premier League
Scroll further down for his earlier weekend selections
1pt Trent Alexander-Arnold 2+ total shots in Man City vs Liverpool (16:30) at 2/1 (bet365, Coral, Ladbrokes)
0.5pt Trent Alexander-Arnold 3+ total shots in Man City vs Liverpool (16:30) at 13/2 (Coral, Ladbrokes)
Manchester City vs Liverpool
- Kick-off time: 16:30 GMT, Sunday
- TV channel: Sky Sports Premier League
- Home 9/5 | Draw 14/5 | Away 6/5
So, I guess City's win over Newcastle last weekend was another false dawn? They followed up what was a dominant display with what has been described by fans as a spineless one in Madrid in midweek, as they exited the Champions League before the last 16.
That performance has seen Pep Guardiola's side drift like a barge this weekend, with the reigning Premier League champions now available to back at 2/1 to win on Sunday. That is the biggest price they have ever been in a home game under Pep, which tells you all you need to know about where they currently are.
After being 17/10 at home to beat Barcelona in the Champions League back in 2016/17, only twice before this season had the Cityzens been bigger than even money to win a game at the Etihad under Pep - that's seven years.
In their current plight, it's no surprise that this will be the third straight home league game in which they will be odds-against. It almost makes me want to back them, as I do think there has been too much of an overreaction, but I can't trust City right now.
The same goes for Liverpool, who we successfully opposed on these pages in midweek, as their schedule has been relentless and they are looking a tired bunch. This will be their 19th game in 67 days, working out at a game every 3.5 days since mid-December. So, I'll be swerving the 1X2.
Instead, I'll take a small punt on TRENT ALEXANDER-ARNOLD continuing his rich shooting form and back him to have 2+ TOTAL SHOTS.
City look weak down their left-hand side, so much so that all three of Real's goals in midweek came down that flank, and while Mohamed Salah is the most obvious danger man, Trent carries a big threat of his own.
Across his last seven starts, Trent has taken 16 shots, covering this line in six - pretty impressive given he's only played the full 90 minutes in three of them. In terms of shots per 90, Alexander-Arnold has averaged 2.76.
This weekend we should see him for the full 90 after Conor Bradley's injury in midweek, only enhancing the chances of him covering this line. He's a big shooting threat from open play but we also have set-pieces on our side, with Trent in the running to take all free-kicks.
Over their last 26 matches, Manchester City have conceded an average of 12 shots per game, but have been hit for some real big numbers against the best sides. Liverpool themselves fired 17 shots in the reverse game and West Ham managed the same number at the Etihad in Julen Lopetegui's final game in charge.
Brentford (18), PSG (26) and Real Madrid twice (20 and 15) have all taken advantage of a vulnerable City backline, and that gives me confidence that the Reds will rack up a big shots total at the Etihad. Hopefully, Trent is among them.
Let's also play the higher line as well, with TRENT 3+ TOTAL SHOTS available at 13/2.
This bet has landed in two of his last four away games against decent sides (Brentford and Bournemouth), while he also fired three shots in the reverse at Anfield.
Score prediction: Manchester City 1-2 Liverpool (Sky Bet odds: 8/1)
Football Betting Tips: Saturday/Sunday selections
Saturday 12:30
1pt Everton to beat Man Utd at 8/5 (Betfair, William Hill)
1pt Harry Maguire to be carded in Everton vs Man Utd at 15/4 (bet365)
Saturday 15:00
2pts Arsenal 1+ corner in first 10 minutes vs West Ham at 10/11 (bet365)
0.5pt Arsenal 2+ corners in first 10 minutes vs West Ham at 9/2 (bet365)
2pts Ryan Christie to commit 2+ fouls in Bournemouth vs Wolves at 21/20 (Unibet)
0.5pt Ryan Christie to be carded in Bournemouth vs Wolves at 22/5 (BetVictor)
1.5pts Alex Iwobi 1+ shot on target in Fulham vs C Palace at evens (Betfair, Paddy Power)
1pt Liam Delap to score anytime in Ipswich vs Spurs at 2/1 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
1pt Liam Delap to be carded in Ipswich vs Spurs at 11/4 (bet365)
1.5pts Kamaldeen Sulemana 2+ total shots in Saints vs Brighton at 11/10 (bet365)
0.5pts Kamaldeen Sulemana 4+ total shots Saints vs Brighton at 10/1 (bet365)
Saturday 17:30
0.5pt Marcus Rashford 2+ tackles in Aston Villa vs Chelsea at 10/3 (bet365)
0.5pt Morgan Rogers to be carded in Aston Villa vs Chelsea at 5/1 (Sky Bet)
Sunday
1pt Chris Wood to score anytime in Newcastle vs Forest (14:00) at 9/4 (Sky Bet)
Everton vs Manchester United
- Kick-off time: 12:30 GMT, Saturday
- TV channel: TNT Sports 1
- Home 6/4 | Draw 21/10 | Away 15/8
EVERTON are 8/5 to WIN against Manchester United and they look good value in my mind.
The Toffees are one of the most in-form teams in the Premier League heading into the weekend, winning four of an unbeaten last five, with David Moyes already tying Ruben Amorim's league win total despite having played eight games fewer.
It's been a pretty remarkable turnaround, with Everton now above United in the table, and it's clear to everyone watching that Moyes's players are understanding his messages, whereas the United players are still not up to speed with Amorim's despite being in the role a good deal longer.
In Moyes's four home league games the Toffees have averaged 1.95 xGF and 1.01 xGA per game, figures made to look even better by the fact they have faced Liverpool, Aston Villa and Tottenham (though granted Spurs aren't what they were) in that time.
United have a W4, D2, L8 record in the league under Amorim, a whopping 57% loss rate, and as well as being in the middle of an injury crisis, continue to perform like a bottom half team on all major metrics (14th for xGF, xGA and xP under Amorim).
It sounds bizarre to say it but these are two teams heading in opposite directions, so the fact we can get such a big price on the hosts should be snapped up.
I'll also have a small bet on HARRY MAGUIRE TO BE CARDED at nearly 4/1.
United's centre-back will be up against an in-form Beto and will have his hands full. Everton's striker is an extremely physical opponent who likes to get in a battle and has the pace to threaten in behind.
Since he came into the team, Beto has drawn at least one foul from his direct match-up, getting one of those booked. Maguire has seven cards in 18 appearances this season, averaging 0.53 cards per 90 in the top flight, so the price looks huge.
Andy Madley is the man in the middle and has averaged 4.5 cards per game in the top flight this season, and booked Maguire in the FA Cup against Arsenal.
Score prediction: Everton 1-0 Manchester United (Sky Bet odds: 6/1)
Arsenal vs West Ham
- Kick-off time: 15:00 GMT, Saturday
- Home 1/4 | Draw 9/2 | Away 10/1
Arsenal are a short price to win here but that looks more than fair. West Ham haven't really got going under Graham Potter, and now head to the Emirates to face the meanest defence in the league.
No team has conceded fewer than the Gunners 0.86 xGA per game this season, while the Hammers' attack continues to be stale despite the managerial change.
In six games under Potter, West Ham have averaged 0.89 xGF per game and 1.33 big chances per game, bringing the Arsenal win to nil into the equation, but at odds-on I'll happily leave it alone.
An odds-on shot I can get on board with is ARSENAL 1+ CORNER IN THE FIRST 10 MINUTES.
The Gunners have been starting fast at home all season long, winning a corner inside the first 10 minutes in 13 of their 19 matches (Bolton in the Carabao Cup excluded as lack of commentary), meaning this bet has a 68% strike rate - a figure that would give us implied odds of shorter than 1/2.
West Ham have been slow starters too, and have conceded a corner in the first 10 minutes in four of their last six away league games, and in both of Graham Potter's matches.
Expect the Gunners to again come flying out of the traps here, no doubt spurred on by Liverpool's dropped points in midweek, so we'll back ARSENAL 2+ CORNERS IN THE FIRST 10 MINUTES as well.
It may seem like a reach but it's a bet that has won in three of Arsenal's last four home matches across all competitions, and their style is centred around attacking down the flanks, putting in crosses and winning corners.
A final point on this game, Arsenal's hero last weekend, Mikel Merino, is priced at 11/4 to score anytime with Betfair and Paddy Power which looks a huge price should he start as a striker.
It's worth backing him now and making a note to check team news at 2.30 and possibly cashing out if he's not in the XI, but knowing we are on a value price should he get the nod from the off.
Score prediction: Arsenal 2-0 West Ham (Sky Bet odds: 5/1)
Bournemouth vs Wolves
- Kick-off time: 15:00 GMT, Saturday
- Home 4/7 | Draw 16/5 | Away 4/1
This should be an entertaining game and we must get RYAN CHRISTIE on-side given that it will be end-to-end. The Bournemouth midfielder is 21/20 TO COMMIT 2+ FOULS which is way bigger than I was expecting to see.
Across his last 15 league outings the Scot has averaged 1.90 fouls per 90, with this bet landing nine times, but the main reason I love this selection is because Christie will be operating in the same spaces as Matheus Cunha.
Christie plays on the right side of Bournemouth's double-pivot in midfield so with Cunha playing in a left-sided 'number 10' role, the pair will meet regularly.
Across all competitions this season Cunha has been fouled an average of 2.23 times per 90, and that has stepped up under Vitor Pereira, with the Brazilian fouled 24 times in nine outings for a per 90 average of 3.0.
He'll keep Christie busy and with fouls expected of the Scot, we have to back him TO BE CARDED too at 22/5.
The referee here, Michael Salisbury, isn't the best of appointments for card backers, averaging 3.45 cards per game this season, but let's hope Christie is among the small group to have had their names taken.
He's been booked nine times already this season, picking up four in his last seven league matches.
Score prediction: Bournemouth 3-1 Wolves (Sky Bet odds: 10/1)
Fulham vs Crystal Palace
- Kick-off time: 15:00 GMT, Saturday
- Home evens | Draw 12/5 | Away 13/5
We've been dangled a favourite punt at a very nice price so we simply have to back it. I am of course talking about ALEX IWOBI 1+ SHOT ON TARGET, which is available at evens here. The same bet is 4/11 in places.
When playing as a winger at home he's fired a shot on target in eight of 11, taking a total of 15 for a per 90 average of 1.44.
Fulham continue to be a tough team to assess, following up a defeat at home to Manchester United with back-to-back league wins over Newcastle and Nottingham Forest.
They are clearly a very good side, the data says so too (7th on xGD per game), but taking this pro-Iwobi stance instead of a Fulham-based one appeals much more.
Score prediction: Fulham 2-1 Crystal Palace (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
Ipswich vs Tottenham
- Kick-off time: 15:00 GMT, Saturday
- Home 13/5 | Draw 11/4 | Away 17/20
Tottenham just about squeezed past Manchester United last weekend, but can we trust them to follow up at Ipswich? I can't, but for those that can, you can get even money about an away win.
LIAM DELAP continues to be a handful for every opponent, and his price of 2/1 TO SCORE ANYTIME makes plenty of appeal, as does the 11/4 about him TO BE CARDED.
- CLICK HERE to back Liam Delap to score anytime with Sky Bet
- CLICK HERE to back Liam Delap to be carded with Sky Bet
He scored his 10th goal of the season last weekend at Aston Villa as Ipswich earned a point, and that was his fourth strike in seven league games, so he's a man in form.
His xG per 90 of 0.36 is impressive for a striker playing in a relegation threatened team, and he accounts for 40% of his team's per game xG.
Despite back-to-back clean sheets, Spurs are still extremely vulnerable defensively. They shipped 1.5 xG to a very poor Manchester United team, and in their previous game conceded a huge 1.9 xG at Brentford.
So Ipswich will get chances here, meaning Delap will get chances, just as he did in the reverse when he netted.
Delap has nearly as many cards (8) as he does goals (10) this season, so with a good referee appointment - Tim Robinson who is averaging 5.0 cards per game - we should back him to collect a ninth.
He plays with a reckless abandon, throwing himself into challenges and pressing intently, which is why he's averaging 2.5 fouls committed per 90 and explains his high card count.
Delap has in fact been carded in five of his last 10 league games since the start of December, serving a suspension in that time too. Again, in the reverse he was carded and committed five fouls as he pressed Spurs' backline ferociously, and I wouldn't put anyone off backing the goal and card double at 10/1.
Score prediction: Ipswich 1-1 Tottenham (Sky Bet odds: 13/2)
Southampton vs Brighton
- Kick-off time: 15:00 GMT, Saturday
- Home 9/2 | Draw 16/5 | Away 8/15
I was going to rinse and repeat our approach from last week by backing Brighton -1 handicap at 6/4, but the Seagulls do tend to make life tough for themselves against poor sides, so I'll continue to only back them against the league's elite.
Instead, KAMALDEEN SULEMANA's shot lines should be attacked, with 2+ TOTAL SHOTS available at 11/10 with bet365, the same bet 2/5 in places.
He's made five starts since the turn of the year across all competitions and has covered this line in four of those, most recently firing five shots last weekend against Bournemouth.
Sulemana really is a shoot-on-sight merchant, and could again be dangerous this weekend playing alongside Paul Onuachu in a real throw-back strike partnership of big man-little man.
Brighton are conceding an average of 12.5 shots per away game, and the directness with which Saints will play could cause them serious problems.
I'll also take a swing at a longshot, with 10/1 too big for SULEMANA 4+ TOTAL SHOTS. It's generally priced at 5/1.
The Ghanaian has covered this line in three of his five starts since the turn of the year against Swansea (FAC), Manchester United (A) and Bournemouth (H).
Score prediction: Southampton 1-2 Brighton (Sky Bet odds: 13/2)
Aston Villa vs Chelsea
- Kick-off time: 17:30 GMT, Saturday
- TV channel: Sky Sports Premier League
- Home 8/5 | Draw 13/5 | Away 29/20
My first instinct here was - why are Chelsea favourites? The Blues have been in terrible form of late, winning just three of their last 11 and losing five. Enzo Maresca's side are winless in six away games, losing four, so a home win does look like a big price.
The issue is that Villa don't fare well at all after a midweek match. So far this season they have won just two and lost five of their 13 league games that have followed a midweek match, with those victories against Wolves and Southampton.
Give Unai Emery time to prepare and he's W8 D3 L2 this season but without it his side have struggled, so I'll swerve the 1X2, especially with defensive injuries mounting for the hosts and Axel Disasi unable to face his parent club.
Instead, hoping he starts, I'll have a small bet on MARCUS RASHFORD 2+ TACKLES at 10/3 with bet365. The beauty of backing this with 365 is that they void the bet should he not start.
Since joining Villa Rashford six tackles in just 136 minutes of football, a per 90 average of 4.0. Now that number absolutely needs to be taken with a pinch of salt given the small sample size, but we are seeing a huge uplift from his days at United.
This season at United he made just 10 tackles across nearly 1500 minutes of action (0.61 per 90), so it's pretty clear that Emery has given the Englishman a rocket, telling him he won't play if he doesn't get stuck in.
I think this bet is priced based on his figures at United, where he was disinterested, as opposed to at Villa, where he is fully engaged and looking reinvigorated.
He covered this line in sub appearances against Spurs in the FA Cup and last weekend against Ipswich, falling one short in midweek against Liverpool, but at the prices, he's worth a poke.
I also can't turn down the huge 5/1 about MORGAN ROGERS TO BE CARDED given his record and the referee appointment.
Rogers has already been booked eight times in the league this season and is averaging 1.68 fouls per 90, so the 13/5 prices generally available look about right, and we have to snap up the 5s.
That's especially the case as Michael Oliver is the man in the middle, and he's averaged 4.9 cards per Premier League game this season, being extremely consistent with his brandishing.
Score prediction: Aston Villa 1-1 Chelsea (Sky Bet odds: 13/2)
Football Betting Tips: Friday selections
Friday 20:00
1.5pts Brentford to beat Leicester at 21/20 (bet365)
0.5pt Brentford -1 handicap at 13/5 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
Leicester vs Brentford
- Kick-off time: 20:00 GMT, Friday
- TV channel: Sky Sports Premier League
- Home 12/5 | Draw 13 /5 | Away evens
Unfortunately, we simply have to keep backing against Leicester. They are showing no signs of improvement at all under Ruud van Nistelrooy, losing nine of their last 10 league games and five straight at the King Power.
The Foxes are comfortably one of the three worst teams in the league according to xG data, so it's no surprise to see them floundering.
BRENTFORD are the visitors and have to back the Bees TO WIN at odds-against prices.
Unsurprisingly Thomas Frank's side's away fortunes have turned in a positive direction just as their road schedule has eased. After failing to win any of their first nine away league matches (D2 L7), with seven of those coming against top 12 sides, they have since won three and drawn one against sides 13th and below.
It's coincided with the opposite happening at home, where they started emphatically thanks to a kind schedule (7W 1D) but have since been beaten up as things got tough (L4 D1).
Ultimately, that's Brentford's level - they generally beat the lesser sides and lose to the big boys, so we should back them accordingly here.
Price-wise they look value here too. Brighton (4/6), Crystal Palace (10/11) and Fulham (4/5) have all been to the King Power in the last six home league games and been a shorter price than Brentford are this weekend, and I'd put the Bees somewhere in between Palace and Fulham's price, so anything above 17/20 represents value in my book.
I'll also have a smaller bet on BRENTFORD -1 HANDICAP at 13/5.
All of Leicester's last five home defeats have seen this line covered, while Brentford recently smashed the Foxes' fellow promoted side Southampton 5-0 on the road and have been creating plenty of chances against better teams than they face on Friday.
Score prediction: Leicester 0-2 Brentford (Sky Bet odds: 11/1)
Odds correct at 1220 (20/2/25)
Newcastle vs Nottingham Forest
- Kick-off time: 14:00 GMT, Sunday
- TV channel: Sky Sports Premier League
- Home 4/5 | Draw 14/5 | Away 3/1
Many scoffed when Nottingham Forest signed CHRIS WOOD from Newcastle for £15m in June 2023, a player who had scored just five in 39 for the Magpies. Well, they aren't laughing now.
The New Zealander has bagged 18 league goals this season, a tally only Mohamed Salah (24) and Erling Haaland (19) have so far bettered, with Wood even outscoring the man forced him out of the equation on Tyneside, Alexander Isak (17).
Wood has scored in six of his last seven league outings, firing eight in total during that run, and his price of 9/4 TO SCORE ANYTIME on Sunday looks large.
Nuno Espirito Santo's side have been good travellers this season and play in a way that will frustrate their hosts. Newcastle meanwhile haven't been anywhere near as dominant at St James' Park as in the last few seasons, failing to win half of their home games and keeping just five clean sheets.
Forest's contain and counter approach should see them cause plenty of problems for Eddie Howe's men, and create plenty of opportunities for Wood to strike, just as he did last season.
While still in the infancy of Nuno's reign, Forest went up to Newcastle and put on masterclass in counter-attacking football as they ran out 3-2 winners with the big man up top, Wood, bagging a hat-trick on his return.
Score prediction: Newcastle 1-1 Nottingham Forest (Sky Bet odds: 13/2)
Super 6 predictions for round 40
- Arsenal 2-0 West Ham
- Ipswich 1-1 Tottenham
- Southampton 1-2 Brighton
- Aston Villa 1-1 Chelsea
- Newcastle 1-1 Nottingham Forest
- Manchester City 1-2 Liverpool
Saturday's tips - odds correct at 1400 GMT (21/2/25)
Sunday's tips - odds correct at 1600 GMT (21/2/25)
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