Football betting tips: Premier League
1pt Sander Berge to be carded at 5/1 (bet365)
1pt Ross Barkley to be carded at 11/2 (bet365)
0.5pts e/w Alfie Doughty to score first at 33/1 (Sky Bet, 1/3 1-99)
0.5pts Sander Berge and Ross Barkley to both be carded at 38/1 (bet365)
This clash is intriguingly poised.
Victory for Luton would put real daylight in between themselves and the bottom two, hoisting them out of the relegation zone, seven clear of Burnley and nine away from the foot of the table. A win for the hosts would keep them within striking distance of the Hatters, they may end the weekend five points clear of safety though.
This match looks a lot closer to call then the odds suggest.
The Clarets have improved recently, despite not having the results to show for their endeavours.
They ran title contenders Aston Villa close, even though they played the majority of the second half a man light, and were unlucky not to earn a replay with Tottenham in the FA Cup.
A wonder strike from Pedro Porro separated the sides in North London but Vincent Kompany praised his side's valiant performance. It was a definitive improvement on their previous showing against Spurs where they shipped five goals.
It might be too little too late but a more defensive minded approach from Kompany is definitely a step in the right direction.
That said, they should not be at odds on Friday evening.
Opta gives Luton a 32.4% chance of winning technically making them the value in the 1X2 but I think nailing my colours to the mast is best avoided in this relegation six pointer.
What are the best bets?
Player cards look the best route and a case can be made for plenty TO BE SHOWN A CARD.
SANDER BERGE price stands out. The two yellows and subsequent red picked up in his last league outing took him to seven cards for the season and 11 across his last 30 top flight starts.
As short as 5/2 with some firms, 5/1 looks too large to ignore.
Berge’s direct opponent ROSS BARKLEY is also worth a poke.
The midfield dynamo has many facets to his game, his defensive output has flown a little under the radar.
He likes to get stuck in as 12 tackles and three cards in his last seven league appearances show.
Tony Harrington is the referee, predominantly a Championship official; he has dished out 4.75 cards per game in the Championship this term.
Given the magnitude of Friday’s game, we could see a few at Turf Moor. Combining both BARKLEY AND BERGE TO BE SHOWN A CARD is worth a punt.
ALFIE DOUGHTY ranks joint-14th in the top flight for chances created (35), alongside Dominik Szoboszlai and Morgan Gibbs-White.
A goal and three assists in his last five appearances suggest he has found an end product.
The 24-year-old has set up five goals in total, which puts him alongside the likes of Leon Bailey, Jeremy Doku and Anthony Gordon, but three shots in the two games against Sheffield United and Chelsea has piqued my interest in his price TO SCORE FIRST.
BuildABet @ 400/1
- Luton to win
- Sander Berge to be shown a card
- Ross Barkley to be shown a card
- Alfie Doughty to score anytime
CLICK HERE to back with Sky Bet
As previously pointed out, Luton are the value. Their away form may be patchy, seven points from nine games, but as the win at Bramall Lane showcased, they are capable of digging their heels in and finding a way.
Team news
Kompany opted to keep his cards close to his chest in regards to injury updates on Jordan Beyer, Charlie Taylor and Lyle Foster. The Belgian will be optimistic Forster’s ankle injury isn’t serious. He was forced off at half time against Tottenham and is touch and go for Friday.
Of the trio, Jordan Beyer is the most likely to start, he will return to central defence alongside Dara O’Shea. Charlie Taylor should be replaced at left back by Connor Roberts.
This match comes too soon for Luton’s Marvelous Nakamba, Reece Burke and Dan Potts. Carlton Morris is a doubt after he was forced off against Bolton, Elijah Adebayo should get the nod in attack regardless with Jacob Brown and Andros Townsend operating in behind.
Predicted line-ups
Luton: Trafford; Vitinho, O'Shea, Beyer, Roberts; Tresor, Berge, Brownhill, Odobert; Amdouni, Foster
Burnley: Kaminski; Osho, Mengi, Bell; Doughty, Barkley, Lokonga, Giles; Townsend, Adebayo, Brown.
Odds correct at 1545 GMT (11/01/24)
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