The so-called 'richest game in football'.
A spot in the Premier League is on the line as Brentford face Swansea in the Sky Bet Championship play-off final at Wembley on Saturday.
Just one place and seven points separated the two in the league, but the gap is much wider when we look at the match-up from a data perspective.
Whether it's the pair's form this season, respective semi-final ties or most recent meetings between the sides, the underlying numbers tell us the same thing — the Bees carry a sharp sting, while, despite looking serene above the surface, the Swans are paddling furiously underneath.
What is expected goals (xG)?
- Expected goals (xG) is a metric that measures the quality of any given scoring opportunity
- Expected goals for (xGF) is the xG created by a team
- Expected goals against (xGA) is xG conceded by a team
Brentford are justified favourites
Brentford's progression past Bournemouth to the play-off final was a microcosm of their season, proving themselves to be one of the elite teams in the Championship without claiming the convincing victory their performances deserved.
They lost 1-0 in the first leg away to the Cherries despite creating the better chances (xG: BOU 1.06 - 1.87 BRE), before recovering in the second leg at the Brentford Community Stadium with the help of indiscipline from their opponents, winning 3-1 after gifting Bournemouth the perfect start (xG: BRE 3.12 - 0.42 BOU).
👏 Incredible play-off semi-final drama but Brentford deservedly come through it and book their place at Wembley.
— Infogol (@InfogolApp) May 22, 2021
Despite ending the regular season in third place, Thomas Frank's side were the number one team in the league based on underlying data, second only to champions Norwich in terms of scoring opportunities created, averaging 1.66 xGF per game, while boasting the best defence in the Championship.
Brentford conceded chances equating to an average of 0.90 xGA per game across their 46 games, an excellent trait which is overlooked thanks to the exploits of Ivan Toney and co.
Ultimately, the Bees have both overachieved and underperformed for a prolonged period, posting outstanding metrics with limited resource throughout Frank's tenure, without the reward of Premier League status.
A dip in form during spring likely cost Frank's men automatic promotion, but it is their only substantial blemish since his arrival in October 2018, and Brentford have responded by bouncing back to their brilliant best in recent weeks.
Sky Bet Championship play-off final
Kick-off time: 15:00 BST, Saturday
TV channel: Sky Sports Main Event
Brentford 10/11 | Draw 23/10 | Swansea 16/5
Swansea struggles unpunished
Much like their play-off final opponents, Swansea's semi-final tie epitomised their season effectively — just in a different manner.
Their 2-1 aggregate win over Barnsley was incredibly dour, , which was somewhat unfairly attributed to Barnsley's style of play.. Swansea advanced to the final despite creating very little in both legs, taking just 13 shots equating to 0.62 xGF across the two matches.
In truth, Steve Cooper's side have been outperforming extremely underwhelming xG numbers for a large part of the Championship season, ending the campaign in 11th place in Infogol's xG table.
After a positive start to the season, Swansea have posted underlying data more aligned with a team in the bottom half of the table since, holding a -3.7 expected goal difference (xGD) in their last 38 matches against Championship opposition.
In line with their performances last week, the Swans have struggled to muster scoring chances during that period, averaging 0.95 xGF per game.
Although their defensive metrics have been solid throughout, Swansea have overachieved at both ends of the pitch to secure a real chance of promotion here.
These long term issues are of major concern heading into a game against a Brentford team that is far superior from a data standpoint, but this is a one-off, and if any team can beat the odds in a play-off final, why not a Swansea side which has been doing it for the majority of the season.
Anything can happen
We only need to look back at the two most recent meetings between the teams to see how variance can play a role in the result of a single game of football.
Brentford and Swansea played out two 1-1 draws in the 2020/21 season despite the Bees edging the xG battle at home and completely dominating at the Liberty Stadium (xG: SWA 0.22 - 2.52 BRE), highlighting the volatility involved in one match.
Nevertheless, facing Swansea in the play-off final is a best case scenario for Brentford after they failed to secure an automatic promotion spot, at least from a data perspective.
It is a perfect opportunity to earn a prize they've deserved in recent seasons — a Premier League place.
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