Brentford take on Swansea for a spot in the Premier League next season and Tom Carnduff has two best bets to back.
Football betting tips: Sky Bet Championship play-off final
1pt Mathias Jensen to score anytime at 11/1 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
1pt Sergi Canos to assist 1+ goals at 9/2 (Sky Bet)
It's two different tales in this season's Sky Bet Championship play-off final. Brentford will be hoping to end their wait for Premier League football while Swansea are seeking a return to England's top-flight. The Bees are favourites on the day and rightly so - Thomas Frank's men have been one of the eye-catching elements of the second tier in recent seasons.
They are odds-on to do it inside 90 minutes and they are capable of achieving that but Swansea's solid defensive unit may cause them problems. It's trying to find a balance between a Swansea side who saw 70% of their regular season games go under 2.5 goals coming against the division's top goalscorers.
It should be a good game for the neutral though and the occasion, combined with fans creating an atmosphere, will make it a watchable encounter. Brentford's second leg win over Bournemouth was a thriller - here's hoping for more of the same on Saturday.
Kick-off time: 15:00 BST, Saturday
TV channel: Sky Sports Football
Home 10/11 | Draw 23/10 | Away 16/5
Chris Kavanagh's appointment as referee may create some good value on offer in the cards market. He averages 3.67 cards per game and the average cards in the play-off finals over the past ten years sits at 3.8. It would be fair to assume that we could well see a couple here.
However, Brentford finished 20th for yellows over the regular season while Swansea were 21st for average fouls per game. While we may see some cards, there is every chance that this game could instead follow in the footsteps of recent finals that have seen just one across 90 minutes.
There are a couple of prices elsewhere that provide appeal though and the first is on the Brentford side of things with MATHIAS JENSEN a huge 11/1 for a goal anytime in 90 minutes. He should have had more than the two on his tally across the season.
The Bees midfielder is better known for his assists this season, with seven coming from an expected assists figure of 6.79. However, Infogol's expected goals model has him sitting on 4.15 instead of the 2 on his tally. Jensen has had chances to score but hasn't taken them as much as he should have.
Ivan Toney is Brentford's go-to man for goals but the Swansea defence focusing on stopping him could create opportunities for others to step up. Jensen averaged 0.9 shots per game throughout the regular season and had one in each of their two play-off semi-finals.
His record is largely the reason why 11/1 is on offer with a couple of bookmakers for a Jensen goal but his expected goals figure sitting at over double his actual tally does show that he could easily have one decent effort to score in the game - he also goes into the Wembley showpiece on the back of a very strong performance last time out.
Elsewhere, staying with this talented Brentford side, and I was surprised to see odds as big as 9/2 available on SERGI CANOS TO HAVE 1+ ASSISTS in 90 minutes. He managed nine across the regular season and finished with an assist in each of his final three games.
The impressive thing with that is that only one of those nine assists came from being fouled for a penalty. Eight were as a result of a set-piece or from open play, with his ability to provide a threat through crosses being problematic for a lot of Championship defences.
Alongside the assists, Canos averaged 1.2 key passes per game with three coming across the two semi-final contests against Bournemouth - he could have easily picked up an assist in one of those two games as well.
It may not turn into a goalfest but a price such as 9/2 on a player as creative as Canos has been is too good to turn down. He is a player that does go under the radar given the attacking talent that Brentford always seem to possess but he does more than play his part.
Brentford were forced beyond 90 minutes when they were beaten by Fulham last season but they should be able to go one better and get promoted this time around. They may also be able to do the job in 90 minutes although it shouldn't be as one-sided as we could perhaps expected.
The Bees' near even money price on victory in 90 minutes looks decent enough but the better value can be found in backing CANOS and JENSEN being involved in the scoring.
Sky Bet Championship play-off final best bets and score prediction
- 1pt Mathias Jensen to score anytime at 11/1 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
- 1pt Sergi Canos to assist 1+ goals at 9/2 (Sky Bet)
Score prediction: Brentford 2-1 Swansea (Sky Bet odds: 15/2)
Odds correct at 1930 BST (25/05/21)
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