Paul Nicholson looks ahead to this year's World Darts Championship in his latest column and gives you his Ally Pally predictions.
MVG favourite in wide open worlds
Michael van Gerwen has to be the clear favourite now. If there were any question marks about that, what happened at the Players Championship Finals in Minehead squashed them all.
It was probably one of his most impressive tournament wins in years and he’s probably not been as ready to lift his fourth world title as he is now.
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🎯🔮 World Darts Championship predictions: Part one!
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📽️ Paul @TheAsset180 Nicholson and @ChrisHammer180 join host @sportingdom to run through the first quarter of the Ally Pally draw.
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Everyone is looking at his section of the draw and wondering if anyone can stop him – and I don’t think they will.
There are obviously players out there who could beat him on their day and that’s the beauty of darts but I honestly feel it’s his time to get his hands on that trophy again.
However, outside of Michael van Gerwen being the favourite, this is one of the most open World Championship events we’ve ever had.
We know Gerwyn Price can turn it on and he handles the pressure really well, Peter Wright is the defending champion and will be coming in fresh, Michael Smith is now a major winner, fifth seed Luke Humphries is the real deal and don’t forget about Rob Cross at world number six.
Rob has made major finals in every year he’s been a professional and kept that run going at the Players Championship Finals which means he’s found form at the right time.
Keep going down the seeds and so many players have proved this season they are capable of deep runs like Danny Noppert, Nathan Aspinall, Dave Chisnall, Joe Cullen and Dirk van Duijvenbode.
Question marks
Gerwyn Price has struggled to pick up titles this season despite producing some high-quality performances but I think we set him high targets because of what he’s done in the past.
For many other players – his season would have been the best in their careers! He’s still one of the biggest hitters and will be hard to stop if he gets going.
Raymond van Barneveld once said that no matter what happens in the 11 months before, if you win the World Championship it’s been an amazing year. Price would do well to read that statement.
They could meet each other in round three, with Price bidding to get revenge for the two defeats he suffered at the Grand Slam. Barney loves the World Championship and he’s a different animal to the one a few years ago when he wasn’t enjoying the sport anymore.
We are looking at this match very differently to how we would have done a few weeks ago so Price will need to be at the top of his game if their paths meet.
Peter Wright has obviously had a difficult year, which was impacted by illnesses affecting himself and more recently his wife, but there have been periods where he’s played brilliantly and won a few titles.
He’ll have practiced hard behind the scenes to get himself ready but I can’t remember a time where the defending champion has gone so far under the radar!
He may be able to use this to his advantage.
Jonny Clayton will admit his season has been nowhere near as good as 2021, so it’s not too much of a surprise that he’s not being widely tipped for glory like he was 12 months ago.
It was always going to be hard to repeat what he did in 2021 and while you’d have expected him to pick up at least two or three titles. He still has the credentials as the world number seven to go deep.
Jonny will feel like he has some redemption to cash in from his last two Ally Pally outings, where he lost in thrillers to Joe Cullen and Michael Smith, so he’ll be hungry to go further than the fourth round for the first time.
Let’s not forget he’s not in bad form – he looked pretty sharp at the Players Championship Finals, where he reached the last four, so we shouldn’t look at him as a seed in early danger.
As far as Gary Anderson is concerned, it’s all about the potential rankings drop.
He’s defending £200,000 having reached the final two years ago but he’s endured a disappointing season and didn’t look all that great in Minehead. An early exit would see him drop out of the world’s top 20.
Gary isn’t playing to the level of two years ago, when he also reached the World Matchplay final, but he has a knack of reaching the latter stages here and I wouldn’t be surprised if he sneaks into the quarter-finals.
If he crashes out early on, I don’t think he’ll retire or announce a grand farewell year.
He won’t expect or demand to be included in the Premier League as Scotland’s flagbearer – he’ll probably just play in events he qualifies for and then just quietly disappear into the sunset, spend time with his family and do some fishing. He won’t want the big fanfare.
Seeded ‘dark horses’
Look no further than Ross Smith, the European champion.
He’s always been a tremendous player but now we look at him a lot differently. Winning his maiden major has done wonders for his confidence and someone has to play really well to beat him these days – and even then it seems to go down to the wire!
Ross has a lot of cardiovascular fitness which can’t be underestimated, especially if you get embroiled in long matches where you need mental and physical stamina.
He’s had some good wins on that stage – including an absolute belter against Stephen Bunting – so don’t be surprised to see him go far.
Another name that stands out for me is Martin Schindler. He’s played some fantastic darts away from the TV cameras this season and if he can get the right kind of win on the biggest stage of all, then he could be the ‘Callan Rydz’ of this year and reach the quarter-finals.
He’s got the talent levels but does need to beat a big name – like Michael Smith who lurks in his section of the draw – to give him that belief.
Qualifiers to watch
Josh Rock is already up to 44th in the Order of Merit before his debut World Championship which shows you the incredible year he’s had.
Nobody wanted to draw him and I fully expect him to win his opener no matter what Jose Justicia throws at him. Jose is a master of tactics, dark arts – you name it – but Josh will be prepared.
A mouthwatering tie with Callan Rydz awaits while he also has the likes of Nathan Aspinall and Jonny Clayton in his mini section – so it won’t be easy for him to go as far as the quarter-finals.
I really like the look of Scott Williams at the moment and if he gets past a tricky opener in Ryan Joyce, he’ll set up what could be the tie of the second round against Rob Cross.
They get on really well and practice together, so they’d bring the best out of each other on that stage.
Keane Barry looked sensational at the Players Championship Finals, where he took out Adrian Lewis, but his mentality also impresses me a lot.
He has a few World Championship experiences behind him now and I feel he’s prime to kick on further than ever before this year as he faces Grant Sampson first before a meeting with Kim Huybrechts.
As far as the international qualifiers are concerned we’ve got to mention Raymond Smith, who reached the last 16 against the odds last year.
He’ll prepare for Ally Pally at the Modus Super Series so he’ll be ready and raring to go again. And, don’t hesitate to look at how he’s played there this week already.
Robert Owen is a dangerous player from the Challenge Tour Order of Merit and will be slippery for Andrew Gilding whilst I’m really happy for Prakash Jiwi just to be in the field!
He’s been working so hard on his game and played in 129 Players Championship events down the years and this is his first appearance at Ally Pally after beating Nitin Kumar in the Indian Qualifier – but I can’t talk up his chances massively.
Female first
The prospect of Lisa Ashton facing Raymond van Barneveld on the Ally Pally stage with nine world titles between them is something all darts fans are rooting for.
I love Lisa to bits and really hope she can make it happen but I can’t see her beating Ryan Meikle because he’s had his best season so far and he’s in a good place.
He’s in the generation of players who have experienced cross-gender and open tournaments so the challenge won’t bother him at all.
Lisa gave Joe Cullen a run for his money in the short format of the Grand Slam of Darts but she will need to average around 94-96 over at least three sets.
I love Beau Greaves v William O’Connor and believe it could be the tie of the first round. I’d have loved to have seen Willie’s face when this draw came out because she was up there at the top of the list of players you’d want to avoid.
Not only is there a lot of hype surrounding Beau, but she’s playing so well and hardly lost a match this year! She’s averaged in the 90s plenty of times this year – including some over 100 – and won’t be fazed by William, who hasn’t enjoyed his most consistent of years, albeit with a few good results.
He’s also had some chequered experiences at Ally Pally so I really feel this is a 50:50 game.
Whoever wins will face Gabriel Clemens, and he knows what it’s like to lose to Fallon Sherrock when the whole crowd is against him. He will probably rather play Willie.
On paper, Fallon will be underdog against Ricky Evans but this is actually a good draw for her because she knows him so well dating back to their days playing youth darts for England and in local stuff too.
They have a similar mindset and that will help Fallon feel even more comfortable up on that stage. That said, Ricky will also enjoy the occasion for the same issue and won’t have any problems with the issue of facing a woman so we could expect a very entertaining game.
It would be amazing if two - or all three - can win on that stage and take female darts to another level, with more than one of them sharing the limelight.
Quarter-by-quarter predictions
From the first quarter of the draw, I'm going for Danny Noppert to reach the semis.
He's had a career-changing year but he still knows he needs to do something special to make the Premier League line-up, and beating a player like Gerwyn Price in the quarters would probably be enough.
In an explosive-looking second quarter, I'm going for Michael Smith even though he'll probably have to come through epic encounters against Joe Cullen and Luke Humphries to get this far.
A lot of people will be picking Josh Rock in the third quarter but I'm going for Nathan Aspinall given how well he's played in the major tournaments over the past few months.
I think Peter Wright might get found out by Keane Barry in the shorter format but even if he comes through those tests, Dimitri Van den Bergh or Krzysztof Ratajski will be dangerous.
I'm backing Michael van Gerwen to win the whole tournament so obviously he's my pick in the second quarter and will then be too strong for Aspinall in the last four.
In the final I believe he'll come up against Smith for the second time in three years and it should be another cracker.
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