PDC World Darts Championship 2023: Day four predictions, betting tips, acca, order of play and TV time
The PDC World Darts Championship continues on Sunday so check out Carl Fletcher's match-by-match predictions, best bets and a suggested acca.
Sunday sees another double session of darts, with a star-studded cast headlined by Damon Heta, Adrian Lewis and Nathan Aspinall.
Here, we look ahead to all four matches with seasonal statistics to help...
Darts betting tips: World Championship day four
1pt Raymond Smith to defeat Karel Sedlacek at evens (General)
2pts Over 4 180’s for Mike De Decker at 8/11 (Sky Bet)
1pt Scott Williams to defeat Ryan Joyce at 11/10 (General)
SL Acca: Aspinall (-1.5 sets), Campbell and De Decker all to win at 11/4 with Sky Bet
* YESTERDAY'S ACCA WON AT 13/2 (Gawlas, Soutar and Rock (-1.5) to win and over 3.5 sets in Menzies v Portela) *
World Championship: Sunday, December 18
AFTERNOON SESSION
- TV Coverage: Sky Sports, 1100 GMT
- Round and Format: Rounds 1 & 2 (Best of five sets)
- In the below stats (courtesy of @CarlyFletch) and his @DartsTracker), the averages and 180 per leg data is for all PDC events in 2022, while checkout percentage is for stage events only. For players who haven't played in any PDC events like Prakash Jiwa, Raymond Smith and Vladyslav Omelchenko, any data available is only from their World Championship qualification route.
Madars Razma (1/6) vs Prakash Jiwa (7/2) (R1)
- Head to Head (TV): 0-0 (0-0)
- 2022 Head to Head (TV): 0-0 (0-0)
- Three-Dart Average (2022): 90.94 - 80.14 (Indian Qualifier final)
- 180s per leg (2022): 0.14 - Unavailable
- Checkout % (Stage Events 2022): 35.94% - Unavailable
- 100+ checkout per leg won (2022): 9.24% - 5.13%
- Match Treble % (Win, most 180s & high checkout): 8.62% - Unavailable
The opening match sees Lativa's Madars Razma taking on the Indian qualifier Prakash Jiwa.
Jiwa is a veteran in the darting world, representing Warwickshire at county level and is a former tour card holder who even appeared at this year's UK Open, defeating Toni Alcinas 6-2 in the opening round before losing to Jason Heaver 6-3 in the second, averaging in the 80’s in both matches. He’s making his debut in the World Championships here by defeating his main rival for qualification, Nitin Kumar, in the final.
Razma has been here before. He was defeated by Steve Lennon at this stage last year but the previous year to that he reached the second round where he lost 3-1 to Gary Anderson, a game which Razma gave the Scot plenty to think about.
WATCH: Paul Nicholson and Chris Hammer predict the Ally Pally draw!
He’s enjoying a fruitful 2022, reaching the final of Players Championship 7, where he lost 8-4 to Gerwyn Price, and also reached the semi-final of the European Darts Masters. In addition to this he enjoyed a great run to the World Grand Prix quarter-final before losing 3-0 to Gerwyn Price after victories over Ryan Searle and Daryl Gurney.
The Latvian isn’t a big 180 hitter, in fact he is arguably the biggest user of treble 19 in the Tour Card holder ranks. I expect he’ll have enough to come through here but Jiwa may be able to make it a closer run event than the odds suggest.
Scoreline prediction: 3-1
Karel Sedlacek (4/5) vs Raymond Smith (10/11) (R1)
- Head to Head (TV): 0-0 (0-0)
- 2022 Head to Head (TV): 0-0 (0-0)
- Three-Dart Average (2022): 91.78 - 88.62
- 180s per leg (2022): 0.17 - 0.16
- Checkout % (Stage Events 2022): 31.43% - Unavailable
- 100+ checkout per leg won (2022): 13.73% - 10.90%
- Match Treble % (Win, most 180s & high checkout): 11.32% - Unavailabl
As the odds above suggest this is really a close one to call.
We’ve seen lots of Karel Sedlacek this year, featuring in 19 of the 30 Players Championship events - where his best result was a run to the last 16 - and also doing well enough on the European Tour to qualify for the European Championship.
Evil Charlie's opponent is back as an International Qualifier having qualified through the DPA Satellite Tour. Many will remember Raymond Smith's exploits last year when he reached the last 16 thanks to wins over Jamie Hughes, Devon Petersen and Florian Hempel with a string of mid 90 averages and terrific displays of finishing.
The Aussie fell at that stage to Mervyn King 4-3, having led 3-1. Unfortunately he wilted from this point after somewhat unnecessarily getting into a bit of banter with the pro-English crowd.
Smith came over here recently to prepare and just last weekend he participated in the Modus Super Series, winning the event for the week with some impressive performances.
Smith is a student of the game, admitting he analyses both his own and his opponents statistics and I like that. He identified areas of strengths and weaknesses in his opponents last year and knows what he must do and/or take advantage of if he’s to advance.
The stats suggest there’s not a great deal in this one too and although I could see this potentially going all the way I’ve been seriously impressed by the Aussie and think he’ll prevail here.
Scoreline Prediction: 2-3
Luke Woodhouse (1/20) vs Vladyslav Omelchenko (8/1) (R1)
- Head to Head (TV): 0-0 (0-0)
- 2022 Head to Head (TV): 0-0 (0-0)
- Three-Dart Average (2022): 91.56 - 69.97
- 180s per leg (2022): 0.23 - Unavailable
- Checkout % (Stage Events 2022): 35.93% - Unavailable
- 100+ checkout per leg won (2022): 11.03% - Unavailable
- Match Treble % (Win, most 180s & high checkout): 14.89% - Unavailable
Vladyslav Omelchenko came through the Ukrainian qualifying event to seal a first appearance at the World Championship. He averaged 76.42 in the final to win 3-0 and averaged 69.97 for the tournament so he’ll have to up that considerably if he’s to trouble Luke Woodhouse on Sunday afternoon.
Woody appeared at the Grand Slam of Darts in Wolverhampton in November which would’ve been the closest to a home event for the Bewdley thrower.
He played very well in that tournament, defeating European champion Ross Smith 5-4 in his opener before losing to Michael Van Gerwen in his second game. He then lost his crunch third game of the group to Nathan Rafferty 5-4 despite averaging 101.26. These short format games can be brutal at times.
Woodhouse reached the third round here in 2020, notably defeating Michael Smith 3-1 in the second round before falling to a 4-2 defeat at the hands of Dimitri Van Den Bergh in the next.
He's reached the Last 16 on the European Tour twice this year and on all known evidence he should have way too much for his Ukrainian opponent here to set up a second round tie against the number one seed Gerwyn Price.
Scoreline prediction: 3-0
Damon Heta (1/2) vs Adrian Lewis (6/4) (R2)
- Head to Head (TV): 2-1 (0-0)
- 2022 Head to Head (TV): 1-1 (0-0)
- Three-Dart Average (2022): 97.62 - 93.51
- 180s per leg (2022): 0.31 - 0.26
- Checkout % (Stage Events 2022): 38.19% - 38.27%
- 100+ checkout per leg won (2022): 12.67% - 9.33%
- Match Treble % (Win, most 180s & high checkout): 34.36% - 27.88%
This is quite some match to be featuring on a Sunday afternoon card and it’s the former two time world champion who starts the match as underdog.
We’ve already seen Adrian Lewis in action once at this event as he comfortably disposed of Daniel Larsson 3-0 in the opening round, averaging 93.57 which up until that point was the most impressive performance we’d witnessed.
Jackpot is yet to rediscover the old form which made him Ally Pally king but there have been signs of a revival at times this year which included him winning his first title in over three years at Players Championship 19 in July. It’s the consistency that’s issue with him more recently with averages ranging from 77.88 to 98.27 in his thirteen matches since the World Grand Prix.
The big hope for Lewis, however, will be the form of Damon Heta on TV. The Heat reached the UK Open quarter-finals, losing to eventual champion Danny Noppert and also claimed the World Cup for Australia alongside Simon Whitlock, but it was the Wizard who was very much the talisman in that pairing.
Since then however it’s been first round exits at the World Matchplay, the three World Series events Down Under, World Grand Prix, European Championship, Grand Slam of Darts and the Players Championship Finals.
TV aside he’s been playing excellently, so much so he was number one seed at the Players Championship Finals. This year away from the big TV events he’s won two floor events and a European Tour. In fact his seasonal average of 97.62 is amongst the elite, only bettered by Michael Van Gerwen and Josh Rock. The conundrum is can he get over the TV blip he’s experiencing of late?
The fans favourite will surely be Lewis and a confident Lewis turning up could be key here. I'm taking the weight of the burden to once again be too much for Heta with the underdog advancing.
Scoreline prediction: 2-3
EVENING SESSION
- TV Coverage: Sky Sports, 2000 GMT
- Round and Format: Rounds 1 & 2 (Best of five sets)
- In the below stats (courtesy of @CarlyFletch) and his @DartsTracker), the averages and 180 per leg data is for all PDC events in 2022, while checkout percentage is for stage events only.
Mike De Decker (4/6) vs Jeff Smith (11/10) (R1)
- Head to Head (TV): 0-3 (0-0)
- 2022 Head to Head (TV): 0-1 (0-0)
- Three-Dart Average (2022): 93.09 - 91.18
- 180s per leg (2022): 0.33 - 0.09
- Checkout % (Stage Events 2022): 27.03% - 32.39%
- 100+ checkout per leg won (2022): 9.47% - 11.81%
- Match Treble % (Win, most 180s & high checkout): 24.18% - 7.87%
Jeff Smith is a wily old campaigner and a former Lakeside World finalist back in 2009. He’s probably more consistent than his opponent Mike De Decker but I’d say the latter would have the higher ‘A’ game when all things are aligning.
A big part of De Decker's game centres around his maximum hitting. At 0.33 per leg he’s one of the top players this year in this statistical field while in comparison, Smith hits them at just 0.09 per leg. It really is a no contest on the maximum front.
That alone won’t be enough and the head-to-head actually reads 3-0 in the Canadian’s favour. Their sole meeting this year saw him emerge victorious 6-5 and I think this promises to have legs in it too.
De Decker reached a semi-final on the floor recently and seems to be enjoying a better season this time round. He came through Darius Labanauskas at this stage last year, who hit a nine-darter against him and he looked more settled on that occasion than he did in his previous venture at Ally Pally.
He’s very much on the up but the experience of Smith will count for a lot too. I’ve already mentioned that I can see this being another close encounter so the safe bet because of this is De Decker on the 180 market and hitting over four of them.
Scoreline Prediction: 3-2
Scott Williams (Evs) vs Ryan Joyce (8/11) (R1)
- Head to Head (TV): 1-0 (0-0)
- 2022 Head to Head (TV): 0-0 (0-0)
- Three-Dart Average (2022): 92.91 - 93.62
- 180s per leg (2022): 0.31 - 0.25
- Checkout % (Stage Events 2022): 40.79% - 40.74%
- 100+ checkout per leg won (2022): 11.64% - 13.57%
- Match Treble % (Win, most 180s & high checkout): 25% - 27.96%
Ryan Joyce has not enjoyed his finest year but there have been signs of a revival in his fortunes of late when he reached the last 16 of the Players Championship Finals, defeating Gerwyn Price in the first round, before coming through the last qualifying event to earn his spot here.
Scott Williams also reached the last 16 of the Players Championship Finals, where he claimed the notable scalp of Dave Chisnall on route. Success has been a regular thing for the non-Tour Card holder in 2022, winning Players Championship 17 on the floor and also topping the Challenge Tour Order of Merit.
He was drawn in the Group of Death at the Grand Slam of Darts alongside Ryan Searle, Josh Rock and Luke Humphries. Although he was eliminated, but did pick up a victory over Searle in a match that had a scoring average of 118.38 - the fifth highest in the event this year.
Williams certainly is a player who is making great inroads this year and I can see that continuing here with victory over the 2019 quarter-finalist. His 180 prowess is the higher of the two at 0.31 per leg compared to that of Joyce at 0.25 per leg and that could make a nice double in this match.
Scoreline Prediction: 3-2
Matt Campbell (1/2) vs Danny Baggish (6/4) (R1)
- Head to Head (TV): 1-0 (0-0)
- 2022 Head to Head (TV): 0-0 (0-0)
- Three-Dart Average (2022): 92.80 - 88.60
- 180s per leg (2022): 0.16 - 0.13
- Checkout % (Stage Events 2022): 36.54% - 31.25%
- 100+ checkout per leg won (2022): 16.09% - 10.84%
- Match Treble % (Win, most 180s & high checkout): 11.22% - 9.09%
This all-North American tie between two players who represented their countries at the World Cup of Darts could be an excellent match. They’ve never met on the PDC circuit but have surely played each other back home numerous times.
Canada's Matt Campbell has already been a finalist on Tour this year, where he lost to Nathan Aspinall 8-6 at Players Championship 13. He’s also shown good signs on TV - losing 6-3 to Gary Anderson in the US Darts Masters but was far from disgraced.
He then appeared at the World Series of Darts finals, defeating Vincent Van Der Voort in the first round before losing a last leg decider in a great tussle against Gerwyn Price. More recently he reached the last 16 of the Players Championship Finals, once again losing a last leg decider to the UK Open champion Danny Noppert.
Danny Baggish is here virtue of exploits on the CDC tour but is a tour card holder too. It was a sluggish start to 2022 for him but he has been fairing much better of late, he’s been stringing two to three wins together here and there and qualified for the World Series of Darts Finals, coming through three qualifying matches, which with hindsight were very tricky: Ross Smith, Ryan Meikle and Brendan Dolan.
Baggish enjoyed a run to the third round in this event in 2021 defeating Damon Heta and Adrian Lewis before finding Glen Durrant too good, so we know the Ally Pally stage holds no fear for him.
This could be a real gritty game in which I slightly favour Campbell. Neither are notorious 180 hitters though and from a betting angle that’s something worth noting.
Scoreline Prediction: 3-2
Nathan Aspinall (2/9) vs Boris Krcmar (3/1) (R2)
- Head to Head (TV): 1-1 (0-0)
- 2022 Head to Head (TV): 1-1 (0-0)
- Three-Dart Average (2022): 94.95 - 93.05
- 180s per leg (2022): 0.26 - 0.18
- Checkout % (Stage Events 2022): 40.93% - 41.03%
- 100+ checkout per leg won (2022): 13.44% - 12.27%
- Match Treble % (Win, most 180s & high checkout): 22.05% - 17.86%
It’s been something of a welcome return to form from Nathan Aspinall this season after what looked to be a potentially career-threatening wrist injury towards the end of 2021. So much so that he’s reached seven finals.
He’s won two events - Players Championships 13 and 22 - but more noticeably he reached both the final of the World Grand Prix and Grand Slam of Darts losing to the two Michaels at the head of the outright betting for the Worlds. He started slow in both those so if he does venture that far, he’ll need to improve on that for sure.
He’s a tenacious character and this event suits him. Twice a semi-finalist at Ally Pally, again losing to both Michaels in those matches previously. He’ll be hoping of at least a repeat of those feats again this time around to what would probably secure him a place back in the Premier League.
Big Boris Krcmar has already graced the stage this year when he defeated Toru Suzuki on Friday afternoon 3-0 despite averaging just 78.21. He’ll need to step that up somewhat but we have seen him produce big numbers so we know he’s more than capable. In fact the head-to-head between the two this year reads one win apiece, both meeting coming in November.
The seasonal stats favour Aspinall and at times, when he finds his rhythm his maximum hitting is unbelievable. He should have too much in this one despite admitting he sometimes switches off in matches.
Scoreline Prediction: 3-1
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