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Cricket betting tips: Big Bash outright preview and best bets
The Big Bash League is back on Thursday, and Richard Mann's outright preview of the latest edition features three recommended bets.
Cricket betting tips: Big Bash League
2pts Brisbane Heat to win the Big Bash League at 9/1 (General)
2pts Brisbane Heat Top 2 league table finish at 9/2 (Sky Bet)
1pt Brisbane Heat/Perth Scorchers final at 14/1 (Sky Bet)
BRISBANE HEAT have a chequered Big Bash history, but the seeds of change were sown in an excellent campaign last year and they are backed to finally go all the way this time around.
For so long, the Heat ranked high on sex appeal, had big names on their books and the muscle to power them to the top of the class. But rarely in franchise cricket has that been a recipe for championship-winning success. It is teams that win tournaments, and for a long time, the Heat didn’t have that.
Chris Lynn, Brendon McCullum and AB de Villiers have all turned out for the Heat at various stages, and for many years Lynn was captain, leader and very much the centrepiece of the whole operation. But though that might have won them a sixes challenge, a bench press competition, it didn’t make for a strong, well-rounded outfit that could consistently win cricket matches.
The Heat needed change, and when Wade Seccombe replaced Darren Lehmann as head coach, and Lynn then left for Adelaide Strikers last season, along with the axing and subsequent departure of Mark Steketee, a new, exciting era was ushered in.
New dawn for exciting Heat squad
Usman Khawaja and Jimmy Peirson took over the reins and between them, started to build something. Exciting rookies such as Spencer Johnson, Nathan McSweeney and Josh Brown were blooded and backed, while more familiar faces, Matt Renshaw and Michael Neser, led from the front.
When international commitments allowed, Khawaja and Marnus Labuschagne delivered in big games, particularly late in the tournament, but it was the young guns who sparked the Heat’s dramatic turnaround which saw them sneak into the play-offs through the back door, before progressing all the way to the final.
They beat the mighty Sydney Sixers in the Challenger, and had Perth Scorchers on the canvass for much of the final until only succumbing late in the piece.
The foundations have been laid for the Heat to take another step forward in the coming weeks, and with such a powerful and deep squad now assembled, they rate good value in the outright market at 9/1.
The batting looks especially strong, initially when the likes of Khawaja and Labuschagne are available, and then even when that pair join up with Australia’s Test squad. Colin Munro was an excellent overseas signing last term – scoring 278 runs in eight matches, while striking at 150.27 – and he returns, as does Englishman Sam Billings. Add Peirson, Renshaw and the hugely talented Max Bryant to the list and the batting has most bases covered.
Neser will again lead the bowling attack, having taken 26 wickets in 17 matches last year, while Johnson’s stock continues to rise following his exploits in The Hundred in England last summer. Where Neser offers swing, guile and craft, Johnson has raw pace and the left-arm angle that is so valuable in this format. Spin is covered through Matt Kuhnemann and Mitchell Swepson, both whom have played Test cricket for Australia in the last 18 months.
New recruit Will Prestwidge is another name to note, while all-rounder Jack Wildermuth might well feel like a new signing having missed last season through injury.
The aforementioned McSweeney didn’t feature that much last term, either, but he impressed greatly when he did, top-scoring in the final, and is already a runner to replace Pat Cummins as Australia Test captain when the time comes. McSweeney captained Australia A against New Zealand recently and will lead a Prime Minister’s XI against Pakistan this week. A fine prospect, he should fill Khawaja’s shoes expertly this term.
The Hundred wasn't ready for Spencer Johnson 💪⏩https://t.co/edV2SyYRZR pic.twitter.com/dsjtgUn0Ym
— Fox Cricket (@FoxCricket) August 10, 2023
I’m struggling to pick too many holes in this squad, or a potential first XI when the time comes, and if able to take some learnings from last season’s excellent campaign, they are surely well equipped to mount another stern title challenge. I'll be be backing them in the outright market at 9/1, and also for a top two finish in the league table. Sky Bet are a clear standout at 9/2.
Sixers on the slide?
While the suspicion is that last season is the beginning of the end for the great Sixers team, it’s hard to completely discount a side that have also built their success on a strong team culture, one which has made winning a habit. Nevertheless, this is an ageing squad which looks ripe to pick up injures through such a long tournament. Bringing back James Vince and Tom Curran was good business, but I’m happy to let the Sixers go at a general price of 4/1.
Defending champions and market leaders, Perth Scorchers (11/4), look a far stronger outfit coming into this season, and the last one once again demonstrated their outstanding squad depth and ability to overcome injures and setbacks.
Ashton Turner will captain once more, and no doubt marshal a middle order featuring some fine young hitters, while the top order has been boosted by the capture of Zak Crawley who ought to enjoy batting on these fast, hard Australian pitches. Laurie Evans is another good pick up, and Jos Inglis and Mitchell Marsh will be buoyed by their recent World Cup heroics for Australia. Aaron Hardie was outstanding last season and is another name to note.
The Scorchers' batting can never be described as a weak link, but over the years, the strong Western Australia fast bowling stocks have generally done the business for the club, and Jason Behrendorff, Lance Morris, AJ Tye and the fit again Jhye Richardson form a fearsome pace attack. Add experienced spinner Ashton Agar, and the Scorchers are clearly the right favourites.
Adelaide Strikers have probably underachieved in recent seasons, but losing Rashid Khan this year threatens to be a big blow, though perhaps not as much as veteran seamer Peter Siddle who has moved to Melbourne Renegades.
I’m probably on my own here, but I’m not sure Jason Gillespie has taken this side forward and I wouldn’t want to be backing them at 7/1, nor do I understand why they are shorter than the Renegades who can be backed at 9/1.
Renegades have the tools to surprise
The Renegades have certainly recruited well. Siddle should continue to be one of the best death bowlers in the competition, while in enticing Adam Zampa from local rivals Melbourne Stars, the Renegades have signed one of the best limited-overs spinners in world cricket. With Mujeeb Ur Rahman and Kane Richardson in there, the bowling looks very good.
As for the batting, much will depend on how much life there is left in the old legs of Aaron Finch and Shaun Marsh. Last season suggested there was something left in the tank, with Finch scoring 428 runs in total, and Marsh averaging 46.20 from the six appearances he made. If overseas recruits Joe Clarke and Quinton de Kock fire, this is a line-up full of potential.
With the Scorchers reluctantly passed over on price grounds, the Renegades were closest I came to striking a second bet in the outright market. However, their potential for disaster is as great as their potential to shine.
And so, I once again find myself coming back to Brisbane Heat who look rock-solid and primed for another shot at title glory. I can’t believe this isn’t a side on the up and ready to show up well.
With similar feelings about the Scorchers, betting a repeat of last season’s PERTH SCORCHERS/BRISBANE HEAT FINAL at 14/1 makes sense. Hopefully the outcome is different this time.
Preview published at 2210 GMT on 04/12/23
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