Graeme North previews day four of the Cheltenham Festival from a timing perspective and highlights his best bet.
Back in the early eighties, I remember visiting Spigot Lodge – which is now where Karl Burke is based but was then occupied by Chris Thornton – as part of a Newcastle University Racing Society stable tour.
The reason I remember the visit clearly is because nearly every box in the yard was occupied by either a homebred son or daughter of Warpath who was owned and heavily supported by his main patron Guy Reed.
Except for Derby fourth Shotgun, nearly all horses by Warpath turned out to be staying slowboats and around that time I remember Thornton entering and then running around a dozen of his Warpath inmates out of exasperation in the same one-mile-six maiden race at Redcar.
I doubt Willie Mullins is running any of his eleven runners in Friday’s opening Triumph Hurdle out of frustration but an inability to have got plenty of them out on the racecourse earlier must be in part responsible and what any of those running for him for the first time might be capable of involves a significant degree of guesswork.
Of the half-dozen that Mullins has already run, Lady Vega Allen, who placed at Leopardstown both over Christmas and at the Dublin Racing Festival, is the pick on times, but she finished behind the reopposing Hello Neighbour (second top on time, and is an excellent historical fit for this race having won a Graded event first time out over hurdles as previous Triumph winners have done) on both occasions, and she doesn’t strike me as the obvious winner.
East India Dock stands out on time, 15lb clear of Hello Neighbour, and would also be top also on his second-best clock effort, so on the face of things ought to warrant a strong selection. I’m never sold on horses beating the same opposition in their build up races as he has done, however, having Torrent behind him in third on both those occasions.
Lulamba didn’t achieve much on the clock when beating the re-opposing French Derby fifth Mondo Man at Ascot on his only start over here, but impressed with the manner in which he powered home from the last. There are bound to be thrills and perhaps spills; 15 runners is by far the largest field for any juvenile hurdle run in Britain this season, eclipsing the 12 that lined up for one at Ludlow last October.
Most unusually, and somewhat bizarrely, only 16 go to post for the County Hurdle, including last year’s winner Absurde, who hasn’t been seen over hurdles since having been prepared for a tilt at the Melbourne Cup in which he finished a close-up fifth. Absurde has to race off an 8lb higher mark here which might not be beyond him given how easily he breezed into contention last year, mindful too he’s still unexposed over hurdles, and the seeming lack of pace might well play into his hands again as it did last year given his high-class Flat form.
Valgrand looks well handicapped on the clock, having posted a 141 here in October, and although that form appears to have taken some knocks since, it wouldn’t be a surprise if he has been laid out for this given his trainer has won the race four times since 2016.
Hansard, Our Champ and Daddy Long Legs are next on the clock and the last-named is perhaps the most interesting having had a spin out under today’s rider Sean O’Keeffe in the Irish Champion Hurdle last time when second to last-flight Champion Hurdle faller State Man, seemingly ridden out the back for a place for a long way but nonetheless running each of the last four furlongs fastest of all according to Race IQ, including a penultimate furlong six lengths faster than anything else.
He’s not the most consistent but he’s won two of his three starts in races of fifteen runners or more with a legitimate excuse in the other in which he started 5-1 favourite off a mark just 2lb lower than he races from here.
Lark In The Mornin was a good winner of the Fred Winter last year and, as then, comes here on the back of a similar preparation having been given a break after an eye-catching run. He’s a bit to find on the clock, however, and more than market rival Kargese who was second in last year’s Triumph, but needs to put an odds-on defeat at Ascot last time behind her, albeit her conqueror that day was Take No Chances, who ran well in the Mares’ Hurdle on Tuesday.
The third race of the day, the Mrs Paddy Power Mares’ Chase, is perhaps my least favourite race of the Festival and one I rarely spend much time on. Allegorie De Vassy is best on time, at least those timefigures recorded at around two and a half miles, but she’s not built up the formidable record her early foray’s over fences suggested she would, having been beaten twice in this race before, and she was touched off last time by the re-opposing Dinoblue, a stablemate of hers who was conceding her 6lb.
Dinoblue was second on her only try over fences at today’s trip, in this race last year, and would probably have won had she not been ridden as if her stamina was in doubt. Limerick Lace, who beat her then when Allegorie De Vassy was fourth, takes her on again but hasn’t been in much form this year; her own stable-companion Brides Hill, second best on time, makes much more appeal despite two defeats in Britain on her last two starts, having an excuse each time.
Wingmen is top on time in the Albert Bartlett, having had a sighter here back in December before going on to finish third in the Lawlor’s Of Naas behind Turners’ runner-up and stablemate The Yellow Clay before then finishing second behind Turners’ third Final Demand at the Dublin Racing Festival, beaten around a similar distance each time.
The longer trip will be well within his grasp and he’s one of the more obvious contenders for a stable struggling a bit this week, but if he is, then so is Wendigo, who might have got turned over at Hexham in October by Battle Born Lad but who has won two of his three starts since and stayed on from some way back to finish second to Turners’ winner The New Lion in the Challow at Newbury.
He doesn’t figure highly on the clock, however, well down a list that behind Wingmen features course winner and French challenger Jet Blue, trip hopeful Jasmin de Vaux, regular British visitor (and winner) Intense Approach and progressive Irish handicapper Flicker Of Hope, whose large-field nous might be something of a trump card in this big field having previously won twice in fields of 16 and 20 runners and then finished third of 25 at the Dublin Racing Festival.
Derryhessen Paddy, who was sent down to Windsor in January along with Tuesday’s scorer Myretown, will have his supporters as will current market leader The Big Westerner, but neither have achieved much on the clock yet for all the latter’s win came in a Grade 2 event at Limerick on Boxing Day.
I’m not telling anyone anything they don’t already know that the Gold Cup is Galopin des Champ’s to lose; on recent form he’s 9lb clear on Timeform performance ratings and 15lb clear on timefigures. He’s not invincible, given he’s lost four of his last nine races, but none of the horses that have beaten him in those starts (Fastorslow three times, Spillane’s Tower and (believe it or not) Appreciate It are in opposition) are up against him here and the horse who was touted at the start of the season as his biggest challenger, Fact To File, won the Ryanair on Thursday.
High-class Banbridge is third best on time (behind the hard-to-fancy Gentlemansgame) and just as good at three miles as he is two, but he needs to prove he can stay the extra two furlongs in contrast to another high up on the clock, The Real Whacker, who won’t fail for a lack of stamina but might ability.
Potentially the most interesting runner is the supplemented Inothewayurthinkin, who won the Kim Muir last year, and then scored highly on sectionals when winning at Aintree subsequently, but he’s still some improvement to make on time.
Aintree has always looked a course that suits the mistake-prone Ahoy Senor (back after a breathing operation) better than Cheltenham and if there is a horse that might well leave his previous form this season behind it’s Monty’s Star (bit to find on the clock, though) who for a long time has given the impression this sort of test will suit.
With no timefigures available for point to points I’ll skip the Foxhunters and finish with the Martin Pipe for which French import Kopeck De Mee is as short as 9-4 off an official mark of 136 which could have been considerably higher had the BHA handicapper taken into account his form at Auteuil with Kitzbuhel, who was on his way to making the Champion Hurdle line up after two wins before injury ruled him out for the remainder of the season.
That’s a lot of pressure on the shoulders of conditional rider A. P Kelly, but he won’t be fazed having won this same race two years ago on the well-backed Iroko. In his ‘absence’, eyes are drawn on the clock to Uncle Bert, who is dropping back in trip, Irish Raider Taponthego and the consistent Act of Authority.
Preference is for the lightly-raced Taponthego, who was second in a hot handicap at Leopardstown over Christmas before finding the drop to two miles against him in small-field conditions races twice since, most recently won by Supreme runner-up William Munny. The return to a big-field well-run environment will suit and he can leave his previous form behind for a yard whose runners have largely run well this week.
Selection
Back Flicker Of Hope each way in the 3.20 Cheltenham at 18/1 (4 places)
Published at 1615 GMT on 13/03/25
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