Live Cheltenham blog: Latest news, gossip and tips
Ian Ogg is in the blog hot-seat for the opening day of the Cheltenham November Meeting.
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Like a Charm?
1522: The market has spoken ahead of the Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle (registered as the Hyde Novices' Hurdle).
Potters Charm was the early favourite but he has been knocked off his perch by Valgrand and the money has continued to come for the Skelton runner who is the 10/11 favourite. Both runners are obviously held in high regard but there's clearly a belief that Valgrand, a course winner of the Grade Two Sky Bet Novices' Hurdle last time, will be the better suited by today's test.
It's perhaps not a surprise that the Twiston-Davies runner may be better served by a trip in time but connections expect him to be fully effective over this intermediate distance. The only other runner in the betting is Gale Mahler who was slammed by Valgrand last time but was found to be in season and didn't give her running. Could she spring a surprise?
It's time to find out with the quintet approaching the starter.
Result
1st
2nd
Reaction
1508: Felix de Giles, a familiar name, was the winning jockey and he spoke to ITV Racing after passing the winning post: "You need the right horses to go to war with and this has been his objective for a good while.
"He was a bit out of the handicap but he knows cross-country races very well and a lot of these horses were having their first time out today and some of them take a bit of time to warm to it. Small horse but very tough.
"This is more like a French steeplechase (than a cross-country), generally speaking cross-country horses have a lot of banks and a lot of turning but this is a more galloping track. He's a five-year-old but he's got a lot of experience.
"He was going a little bit out to his left so when a horse runs out to his left he was very good to not follow. I'm glad I managed to get the right side of the rail in time. There was a little bit of rail which was sticking out and I just brushed it and brought it along with me but I'm okay."
Michael Nolan, rider of Tommie Beau, has just spoken to the cameras and looks the epitome of gutted. He says he had no chance of keeping Tommie Beau on the correct course given the timing of his left-hand drive and believed he was still in with a real shout at the time.
Cross-Country
1445: Conflated and Tommie Beau are the 4/1 joint-favourites for the Glenfarclas sponsored contest.
"He will improve a lot from the Charlie Hall," says Elliott of Conflated but he's not at all happy that the race in March has been changed to a handicap, saying that Cheltenham is about the best horses.
Conflated has to give away upwards of 23lbs to the field today and when asked if he's up to it, he replied 'I don't think so, not today'. Or words to that effect anyway.
I hope you're not on at 3s or any price for that matter. Still, trainers have been known to get it wrong but it doesn't exactly fill you with confidence. So, who does win? Erm.
Value Bet selection Tommie Beau is the new favourite and it would be nice to see one of the smaller trainers in Seamus Mullins win.
There are plenty of cross-country races in France and Gabriel Leenders has brought Sweet David over. An each-way bet to nothing? (Hangs head in shame).
They're heading out onto the course and we're just a couple of minutes from post time.
There are 31 fences and over three miles five furlongs ahead of this field; I'm going to put the kettle on and come back for the finish. Good luck.
Result
1st Sweet David 5/1
2nd Mister Coffey
3rd Back On The Lash
High drama as Tommie Beau ran out when in the lead, slightly hampering Sweet David but he was travelling so well it didn't prevent the youngster from winning easily. Tommie Beau does stay well but the winner looked to be travelling all over them at every stage. Conflated was last of those to complete.
Reaction
1427: "The only time he was going to be vulnerable was today," said De Boinville.
"Delighted with him. All ours have been needing a run a bit. We didn't set off at made fractions and I didn't want to be really aggressive on him but once he jumped two out, he was very brave at the last and kept finding all the way and I think he was pulling away at the line anyway. You've got to be positive with him but at the same time, it's a fine line. What a fantastic horse."
Henderson: "I think his jumping was as good as I've ever seen it be. He's really enjoyed himself. I suspect he'll tell me he had a good blow between the last two fences, it looked like that and I'd expect it too. We've got three weeks until the Tingle Creek and that would be the perfect prep I'd say; it's not a prep, it's a race you want to win but that was ideal.
"I thought he looked awful big in the pre-parade ring. It's a job done. A lovely race for him. It will be Tingle Creek, then the Clarence House again and the normal route I suspect; I'd be surprised if we vary it."
Betfair Sportsbook have left Jonbon unchanged as their 3/1 favourite for the Queen Mother Champion Chase.
Follow the leader
1409: Last year Jonbon got a lead in the Shloer Chase from Editeur Du Gite with Edwardstone held-up last of the four runners. Boothill was held-up when the three of them met at Sandown in April and can be expected to do so again but Edwardstone's team did adopt more positive tactics after last year's renewal and he seemed to respond well enough to them, wining the Game Spirit and going well enough until falling in the Champion Chase. Unexpected Party led at Carlisle earlier this week and could play the sacrificial lamb if Tom Cannon doesn't want to take the field along.
A dawdle might provide De Boinville with an unwanted headache but connections have always said that they're happy to make the running if nothing else wants to go on. Jonbon was beaten in a small field at Cheltenham in January in a fairly remarkable renewal of the Clarence House Chase and it will probably take something similar for him to be beaten today.
He's brilliant and exciting but I don't know that he's a horse who fills me with confidence of getting the job done at 2/7 and, as usual, he's very much on his toes in the paddock. They're at the post and almost set to go.
Result
1st Jonbon 1/3 favourite
That was, though, a little bit more interesting than many might have expected. De Boinville probably didn't want to ask him to do too much but he was kept honest by Edwardstone and Boothill with the latter only a length or so down at the line. It was relatively exciting.
Reaction
1356: Nicky Henderson spoke to Rishi Persad on ITV Racing: "I can remember the first day we ever schooled him over the nursery hurdles he was unbelievable and that seemed his strength; I'm not sure how good we thought he was at the time and even this time last year I'd have been surprised if you'd seen him in a race like this but his jumping is just exceptional; loves this ground - has to have it - and he stays and he gallops and he jumps and he was very brave there to be fair. He just had his ears pricked all the way, he was loving it and Nico probably enjoyed himself there too.
"I didn't really realise all his form is on the Old Course but I can't believe he's going to be any different if you switch.....the one thing he has blown.....I was rather keen when he got put up to 144 after last time which would have brought him into the new National Hunt Handicap Chase but I fear we've just blown that!
"The other plan means he's got to come down but that's not a Henderson-style of action. We'll have to have a look-see. The ground is essential so there's no point saying we're going to go and do this.....We've got to make use of it while we've got it but it's a frustrating time for all trainers because we can't run what we want to get out so if you've got something like him then you should get on with it."
De Boinville: "He's actually a horse we can't school too much because he takes a bit of looking after but he's a very genuine sort. Jonbon is in great form, see if we can do it again."
Hope springs eternal
1338: There were high hopes for Springwell Bay as a hurdler which didn't quite materialise after his victory at this meeting last year but perhaps he will surpass those efforts now chasing.
There is money against him here with Buddy One, who provided some memorable moments last season, half a point longer than the favourite at 5/2 and Hyland 11/4. Indeed the outsider of the field, Resplendent Grey, is hardly that at 4/1.
All four have run over fences with Hyland two from three over the larger obstacles. He's a horse who never really captured my imagination as a hurdler but De Boinville remarked that he thought 'he was really going to enjoy chasing' after his victory at Southwell so perhaps he'll hit new heights.
Buddy One faced a stiff task last time with his 17 lengths defeat at the hands of the useful Heart Wood and Corbetts Cross at Wexford hardly a disgrace.
Money has come for Hyland who is now the 2/1 joint-favourite - that feels like quite a strong move in the Mucking Brilliant Paddy Power Novices' Chase. They're off.
Result
1st Hyland 2/1 joint-favourite
Hyland jumped off and made all in pleasing fashion. He jumped well on the whole, proved nimble when needed and resolute at the finish when pushed all the way by Resplendent Grey. The other pair were a shade disappointing although Springwell Bay was a shade keen early. Will it be the Ultima for him rather than the Grade One?
Reaction
1322: Winning trainer Neil Mulholland is on hand to throw a couple of buckets of cold water over Double Powerful and I'm sure we'll be hearing from him shortly.
We hear from Johnston first who is fulsome in his praise of the trainer and the horse who he goes on to describe as 'one dimensional', adding 'you have to ride him like that and when you ask him to go he picks up so quickly'.
One dimensional seems a little like damning with faint praise for a horse who has won six on the bounce and I don't suppose his owners will be complaining about their charge's lack of versatility.
Good news for those who like tradition as the ITV Racing coverage has started with Ed Chamberlin struggling to hold on to several hounds in the paddock; there will be the customary pictures of them out on the course later. Meanwhile, you can listen to a more pertinent and interesting except from Betfair's Racing Only Bettor podcast above.
Mulholland said: "He's still learning all the time. Thankfully he kept his head in the preliminaries. We had a plan that he would do one turn and then out in the parade ring and thankfully Dylan knows the horse and everything went to plan today. I was watching with the owners and he's a horse that you don't want to get lit-up too early in the race as well; it's a long way up the hill and you can think what you want with half a mile to go but you see many a race change from the last home here.
"But he was gutsy and he was determined and we're very happy. The horse is hopefully still improving but there's no major plans, we'll freshen him up and maybe look at a couple of nice little handicaps in the spring."
Going for broke
1310: We're at post time for the Lycetts Insurance Brokers Conditional Jockeys Handicap Hurdle and there's support for the O'Neills' Stay If U Want To who is 8s from 10s and also for Double Powerful who is now the clear 3/1 favourite. They're coming in....good luck and enjoy.
Result
1st Double Powerful 3/1 favourite
2nd Young Lucy 12/1
3rd Plaisir Des Flos 9/2
4th Tune In A Box 11/1
5th Il Va De Soi 25/1
6th American Sniper 17/2
American Sniper was gifted a lead of around 10 lengths by the time they passed the stands for the first time with the remainder covered by less than that distance. The field had closed back up by the top of the hill and there were four spread across the track behind him at the third last and Double Powerful and Plaisir Des Flos passed him at the last and Double Powerful just had enough in hand to hold the late run of Young Lucy.
The winner was ridden by Dylan Johnston who is enjoying some high profile rides courtesy of his retainer for Dai Walters and his star is firmly in the ascendancy in these early days of the season. He did, though, come across the third but Double Powerful was more or less clear of his rival and Johnston had his whip in the correct hand and did put it down to try and correct his mount; from a position of complete ignorance, I'm not sure there's too much more he could have done.
In the paddock
1300: The runners are parading for the opening Lycetts Insurance Brokers Conditional Jockeys Handicap Hurdle where there are 4/1 co-favourites with the two upwardly mobile five-year-olds joined by the 10-year-old Whatsupwithyou.
The latter was described as 'bet of the day' by Matt Brocklebank in his Value Bet column with Matt advising 1.5pts each-way at 11/1. That ship has sailed but loyalty to 'the team' does mean I'll have to cheer him on (as long as he's not coming to the last alongside Tune In A Box in which case......).
This hasn't been a bad race for favourites in the last 10 years with four successful although it catches the eye that three of those jollies were owned by JP McManus who is without a representative this time around. The top of the market has been the place to focus your attentions on though with only last year's winner returned at longer 8/1.
Go on you good things.
A change is as good as a rest
1253: Is a proverb that I've never put much stock in; a rest works for me every time.
David Pipe has opted for a change rather than a rest for American Sniper. The top-weight won the first race last year - one of three winners of the race in the last decade for Pipe - and he's only 5lbs higher this time around. He raced in cheekpieces for the first time 12 months ago but the headgear was dispensed with after he failed to back up that run the next twice.
The headgear was back on when he beat Emitom at Newbury and perhaps those subsequent defeats have led Pipe to swop them out for first time blinkers this afternoon. It certainly raises a question mark which is not ideal if you're looking to get with American Sniper for all that question may arguably be built into his price which is around the 8/1 mark.
Rebel Intention's profile is not wholly dissimilar in as much as he was in good form this time last year, winning in August and November, only to lose his way over the winter. The handicapper responded accordingly and he started the campaign off 96 (won off 95 last year) with a good second at Stratford before winning at Kempton. He's up 5lbs to 104 and it could be that his upturn in fortunes has more to do with his rating than the time of year or his well-being but he's in-form and has his conditions and, I think, there are worse 25/1 shots around. It's the sort of price where you might be prepared to chance your arm in a contest that might not be quite as deep as the numbers suggest, particularly with those extra places on offer.
And they're off
1229: Or at least they were but not at Cheltenham where we're still around 45 minutes away from the first.
The opening races have concluded at both Newcastle and Punchestown though - won by Rebecca Menzies and Gordon Elliott - and the result from Southwell's opener will soon be in too.
It is a bright and sunny autumnal day which does raise the question whether that glowing orb will cause any problems at Cheltenham. Hopefully not as it's always unsatisfactory to watch the obstacles in the straight being dolled off as it markedly changes the nature of the races but it's not a problem that is easy, or even possible, to solve.
She's on the case
1207: It's not the Royal Detective Mira accompanied by Mikku and Chikku which is a shame as they always solve the riddle but Sky Bet have asked Alex Hammond to find the answer to their 'Money Back As Cash' race which is the Glenfarclass Cross-Country Handicap Chase and you can find out who Hammond thinks is worth backing by listening to the tweet below.
(Can it still be called a tweet? Is it now a X? Does anyone bar the new US government's efficiency tsar care?)
I have little to offer on the Cross-Country race which is normally a contest I skip straight past but I will be keeping a close eye on Mister Coffey who in a fit of mid-winter madness I backed for the Kim Muir last year.
I was Mafeking relieved (as someone of an older vintage than me used to say regularly) when he wasn't confirmed for the race a few weeks later.
I was just checking his ground preferences (which I thought was for good but isn't backed up by form so we'll ignore that) when I saw this quote from his trainer early in his career, saying 'he is going to be a spectacular horse'.
Life doesn't always work out the way we think it will.
Warming up
1150: The Racing TV team have started their live introduction to a background of PA mumblings and dog whistles (literal ones) for it is Countryside Day so we can look forward to the sight of the hounds running down the track later (assuming they still do that) and one going rogue and running through the crowd to general amusement and delight. It is always a fun and relaxed atmosphere at this meeting, like the first day of the holidays.
Tom Stanley has just interviewed Michael Shinners of Sky Bet but the pair got distracted by a spider web - and spider - on Stanley's beard and they, and I, struggled to get back on track after that. I'm not sure there was anything very revealing but Shinners did report Sky Bet have seen some decent money for Valgrand who has taken over at the top of the market from Potters Charm.
Valgrand was a ready winner from Gale Mahler last time but the mare was found to have come into season and didn't give her true running. It's interesting to read the post-race quotes from Dan Skelton that he thought 'the mare would be very hard to beat' and Valgrand is worse off at the weights with her this afternoon.
There seems to be confidence behind him in the market but if Gale Mahler is back in top form and Skelton's original assessment was on the mark then this could turn out to be more than a match.
Festival pointers
1138: I know, I know. Talk of the Cheltenham Festival should be banished this far out but the November meeting has been an historically good pointer to events in March.
(Is it time for one of those financial services' warnings? I.e. Past performance is not a guide to future performance, nor a reliable indicator of future results or performance.)
However, a decent number of horses have doubled up at both meetings and today's obvious candidate would be Jonbon who should be a leading fancy for the Champion Chase if all goes well this afternoon and in the interim. If Conflated wins the cross-country that is another who would look to have leading claims in the spring while connections of those involved in the novice races will obviously be hopeful.
Three of the last four winners of the novices' chase have all returned in March and that would have been four had misfortune not befallen Broadway Boy the day before he was due to run. The Real Whacker famously won the Brown Advisory but Threeunderthrufive cut little ice while The Big Breakaway did finish third, albeit some 17 lengths or so behind Monkfish.
It's not just winners at this meeting which have a tidy Festival record with those making the frame also going on to enjoy their share of success so although March may seem a long way away with the deep, dark bleak midwinter still in front of us it will be worth keeping a close eye on what happens over the next three days.
Daily Jury
1119: You can now access Timeform's long-established tipping subscription service, Jury Daily, through Sporting Life Plus.
Get the best bets on today’s racing from the Timeform Jury! They scour the markets daily to find the best selections, at the best prices, and have rewarded followers with over 900 points profits since its launch.
When logged into Sporting Life Plus, you’ll be able to view their selections, listen to their rationale and advised stakes every day at 11.15am, unless they decide there are no viable betting options.
Sky Bet are also guaranteeing the best available price for one hour following publication. Click on the image above to hear the latest advice.
Take two
1107: Two bets for me today which I'll get out of the way now and bury deep in the blog.
I had expected / hoped to see some money around for Clap Of Thunder who makes his handicap debut in the last but none has been forthcoming which does make me a little uneasy and similar comments apply to the other runner too but in for a penny.....
Clap Of Thunder won very easily at Ascot in a modest race having been a disappointing favourite in a better race at Chepstow. Eyes not ears should be the order of the day but it was still interesting to hear Sam Twiston-Davies's post-race debrief where he said:
"I put him up early in the season as my horse to follow so when he trailed in a very poor fourth at Chepstow I was really questioning my judgement but the way he's gone through the race there and the way he's won is the sort of horse I thought we had so now hopefully we can ignore Chepstow.
"With the horse coming out it did look like a nice opportunity for him but most importantly he jumped nicely, travelled well and won as he liked so hopefully keep progressing."
He did go on to mention that further progress is expected when Clap Of Thunder jumps a fence and he could be vulnerable to some of the speedier ex-Flat horses on this turning track with decent ground but he's a double figure price and there's an extra place or two on offer with some firms. His bumper form is pretty decent with a second to Bill Joyce and a midfield finish behind Royal Infantry taking the eye while it also encouraged me that the Chepstow novice he ran in was won last year by Donnacha who went on to finish a good second in this contest.
I will always clutch at straws.
The first also looks nice and competitive and if you've read the Punting Pointers copy you'll know there's been a good punt on Whatsupwithyou who is eminently opposable at his current odds. He would be an unusual winner of this race in so much as it tends to be won by younger, up and coming hurdlers as opposed to relative veterans who have come back to a good mark with five-year-olds winning seven of the last eight runnings.
Double Powerful and Plaisir Des Flos represent that age group and both, somewhat remarkably, have won their last five. In contrast, Tune In A Box ran like a drain in the Silver Trophy at Chepstow but I'd be happy enough to put a line through that run given he's a double figure price here. He'd gone on a similar winning sequence last season, culminating with an impressive victory in a Punchestown handicap hurdle and although the handicapper has duly hammered him for that success, Tune In A Box looks capable of coping with his new mark.
More straw clutching but..... Tom Lacey also trained the favourite for the Punchestown contest in Montregard, he was a pretty disappointing favourite at Wetherby (over fences) in October but bounced back to win at Market Rasen yesterday offering some encouragement that Tune In A Box may be able to follow suit.
Again, there are extra places on offer and if he manages to fill one of them it may just be enough to resist temptation of dipping into the pool for the intervening four races.
'The only show in town'
1036: The Punting Pointers team of David Massey and Rory Delargy have put their heads together and come up with two selections for the Cheltenham card at rather more appealing prices than some of those listed below.
The duo also give a rundown on four of the six races which is as informative as ever although sometimes the pair have to agree to disagree as is the case in the finale.
Check out their thoughts by clicking on the image above.
The declarations for Sunday's card are in and the Greatwood Hurdle has held-up quite well. The presence of Dysart Enos adds a layer of intrigue, particularly after Fergal O'Brien described her as the best handicapped horse in Britain and Ireland something which I can't imagine the late Captain Tim Forster ever said, not in public at any rate.
She does have 14 rivals up against her on her handicap bow and they include another lightly raced contender in Be Aware who represents the Skeltons. It's always a good handicap and this year's renewal should have a little more zest to it with the potentially top-class favourite going to post; she should also ensure that the race has a decent each-way shape to it if taking short prices about a relatively unproven mare is not your thing.
Put the Boot in
1025: The early Paddy Power market moves have been published to X. There is nothing monumental which is a shame but they are as follows:
1310 Plaisir De Flos 4/1 from 9/2
Fergal O'Brien trained runner who has won his last five, 36lbs higher than for the first of them but still looked to have something left in the locker when winning at Carlisle last month.
1345 Springwell Bay 6/4 from 13/8
Decent staying hurdler from Jackdaws Castle who made a winning chase debut at Chepstow although the runner-up didn't do a huge amount for the form in the Rising Stars at Wincanton which was won by the third home, Boombawn. Mixed messages.
1420 Boothill 8/1 from 17/2
One of Mr Linfoot's two selections. Does he qualify as a free hit at Jonbon?
1455 Conflated 3/1 from 7/2
Gordon Elliott has enjoyed plenty of success in the Cross Country races and this smart chaser (only one and a quarter lengths off Jonbon in April) could defy top-weight if taking to this discipline although you have to go back to Balthazar King in 2014 to find a winner who carried more than 10-12.
1530 Valgrand 5/4 from 6/4
The Skelton stable is ticking along quite nicely. He's already won at Cheltenham this season and there's little on the ratings between the top two in a race which appears to be a match.
1600 Fasol 4/1 from 9/2
Decent stayer on the flat in France, just the two starts over hurdles for Paul Nicholls but he was given a flat rating of 101 when representing Ditcheat at Royal Ascot and runs off 108 here; could turn out to be very well handicapped.
Good morning
1010: Good morning and welcome.
A new day has dawned and it's an exciting one for the jockeys, not just because it's the first day of the November meeting but also as it's the first day of the David Power Jockeys' Cup which I'm sure you've read all about already. It will be a nice little earner.
The going, as Jon Pullin explains below, is good (good to soft in places) but there are already four non-runners in the opening contest (just as well it's not the second or third), including Phantomofthepoints who was flagged up by Ben Linfoot in his overview of the meeting but who didn't make the cut for today's tipping column. That still leaves 16 runners in the handicap hurdle so, hopefully, those each-way terms won't have been affected.
All in all the field sizes have held up pretty well given the lack (!) of rain over the last few weeks - although it's still pretty muddy in my neck of the woods - with neither the Shloer nor the Mucking Brilliant Paddy Power Novices' Chase historically attracting large fields and we do have a bona fide top-notcher in the Shloer with Jonbon making his reappearance.
He has a respected rival, too, in the shape of Edwardstone who finished runner-up to Jonbon in this race last year but got closer to him when last seen in April when a four length third in the Celebration Chase at Sandown and Tom Cannon is hopeful that the better ground may enable him to get closer still. Jonbon is deservedly short but does have a race on his hands.
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