NFL betting tips: Best bets, predictions and picks for Week 11
Ross Williams looks ahead to Sunday, picking out four best bets from an interesting slate of NFL match-ups.
NFL betting tips: Week 11
2pts Arizona Cardinals (-2.5) to beat the Seattle Seahawks at 21/20 (bet365)
2pts Indianapolis Colts (+7.0) to beat the Buffalo Bills at 10/11 (General)
1pt Cam Newton (Panthers) to score a touchdown at 11/8 (Sky Bet)
1pt Ezekiel Elliott (Cowboys) & Travis Kelce (Chiefs) both to score a touchdown at 9/4 (Sky Bet, bet365)
Indianapolis Colts @ Buffalo Bills
- When: Sunday at 18:00 GMT
- TV: NFL RedZone on Sky Sports Mix
In a repeat of their AFC Wildcard match-up in January, the Buffalo Bills are heavily favoured to once again do the business over the visiting Indianapolis Colts. However, I don’t think this one’s as straightforward as the seven-point handicap suggests.
Due to a strange old year in the AFC, the Colts’ playoff hopes – despite their 5-5 record – are still just about alive, but they need to continue winning. Indy have taken out four of their last five games in an under-the-radar run so they head into Buffalo with plenty of confidence.
It’s a tough ask to take down a team that generally scores over 30 points per game and concedes half that amount, but the Colts will certainly have a dig on Sunday and I like them to at least cover the spread as underdogs, a feat they’ve managed in each of their last three road games.
Buffalo have an exceptional run defence and they often ride this to victory, but Indianapolis may have the antidote in the outstanding second-year running back Jonathan Taylor. The former Wisconsin star will likely end Sunday as the NFL’s leading rusher and his recent run of 100+ yard games is putting him closer and closer to the record books.
If the Colts can get Taylor rolling once again, Josh Allen will lack the time to do his thing on offence and this opens the door for the Colts to keep it close.
They may fall short of the money line win in the end, but the bookmakers are skating on thin ice giving one of the NFL’s form teams a seven-point head start.
Best Bet: Indianapolis Colts (+7.0) to beat the Buffalo Bills at 10/11
Washington Football Team @ Carolina Panthers
- When: Sunday at 18:00 GMT
- TV: NFL RedZone on Sky Sports Mix
Washington’s visit to Carolina features two of the league’s most inconsistent teams. They each recorded huge victories over teams with winning records in week ten, but both of their seasons have been littered with defeats to teams that had no right beating them.
With that in mind, I have little interest in making a pick in this game, but it’s very tough to not have interest in Sunday’s biggest NFL storyline.
After an untidy end to his first stint at the franchise, a detour to New England and nine months out of the sport, Cam Newton makes his return to Bank of America Stadium this week, and the Panthers fanbase will welcome him back like a conquering hero.
Arguably the greatest player in franchise history – and certainly the most charismatic – Newton immediately made his presence felt on his second debut for the Panthers last week, racking up two touchdowns in as many snaps in Arizona.
This week, he takes the reins properly as starting quarterback and I have no doubt that Carolina will feed off the energy their quarterback will provide.
Chances are – against a defence decimated with injuries to key personnel – the Panthers will at least have one opportunity inside the five-yard line on Sunday and in that instance, there’s no question as to the direction head coach Matt Rhule will turn.
Newton might be the most potent red-zone quarterback of all-time on the ground, and Carolina would be foolish to not use the former MVP’s strengths to their advantage, just as they did time and time again during their iconic 2015 campaign.
Best Bet: Cam Newton (Panthers) to score a touchdown at 11/8
Arizona Cardinals @ Seattle Seahawks
- When: Sunday at 21:25 GMT
- TV: NFL RedZone on Sky Sports Mix
Kyler Murray ‘hopes’ he can play on Sunday and he’s been practising this week which is a very good sign, but obviously take this tip with a pinch of salt.
The initial Colt McCoy optimism died pretty swiftly last week, so I no longer put much faith in the Cardinals minus their dynamic quarterback. However, I’d fully expect a starting Kyler Murray to lead the Cardinals to victory over a Seattle team that failed to record a single point in Lambeau last week.
The Seahawks, even with Russell Wilson back in the fray, look lost and their season appears to be all but dead as they enter this NFC West clash. Only the New York Jets are conceding more yards per game on average and the once-explosive offence isn’t delivering either, struggling to score more than 20 points per game.
The generous 2.5 point handicap will disappear quickly if Murray is activated 90 minutes prior to kick-off, so act with haste if you’re confident the MVP candidate will suit up, to avoid providing the Seahawks unnecessary breathing space.
Seattle look there for the taking in a perfect match-up with Arizona, but it’s always better to be on the right side of the three-point field goal mark on the handicap.
Best Bet: Arizona Cardinals (-2.5) to beat the Seattle Seahawks at 21/20
Dallas Cowboys @ Kansas City Chiefs
- When: Sunday at 21:25 GMT
- TV: NFL RedZone on Sky Sports Mix
There should be points galore when the Cowboys and Chiefs do battle on Sunday evening and that has had me scouring the touchdown markets in search of value.
With both offences firing on all cylinders (finally, in the case of the Chiefs) going for the over in the total match points market is an obvious temptation, but the mark of 56.5 points is league-leading this week and one of the highest of the season.
Therefore, I’d suggest more value lies in two of the game’s most likely contributors.
After a poor 2020 season by his standards, Ezekiel Elliott has been much more like it this season. He may not be racking up the yardage he once did, but he has regained his ability at the goal-line and in what should be a tense game, I’d expect Mike McCarthy to lean on his most trustworthy soldiers to get the job done in must-score situations on Sunday.
Elliott has seven touchdowns for the year so far and, against a defence that has leaked ten scores on the ground this year, I fancy Elliott to add to his total.
The Dallas running back is a nice option at 8/11, but I’d prefer to double him up with another regular contributor.
Travis Kelce has been playing hurt this season, but his numbers continue to hold up and he provided his best showing last week against the Las Vegas Raiders.
The All-Pro tight end racked up a pair of touchdowns, adding to his tally of five on the year and I fully expect him to give the Cowboys problems up the middle this weekend.
In week ten, the Chiefs we have grown to expect over the past three years looked to be back and, if that’s the case, we should expect a Travis Kelce touchdown as it’s one of the more frequently-spotted sights in the NFL.
Best Bet: Ezekiel Elliott (Cowboys) & Travis Kelce (Cardinals) both to score a touchdown at 9/4
Odds correct as of 2220 GMT (19/11/21)
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