With a range of winners so far, Matt Temple-Marsh is back to look for more offensive/defensive mismatches, sneaky backups and more, with some high value touchdown scorers definitely worth taking a look at.
NFL betting tips: Week 11
2pts Jonathan Taylor to score anytime in Indianapolis Colts @ Buffalo Bills at 10/11 (General)
1pt D’Onta Foreman to score anytime in Houston Texans @ Tennessee Titans at 11/4 (bet365)
1pt Cam Newton to score anytime in Washington Football Team @ Carolina Panthers at 11/8 (Sky Bet)
Houston Texans @ Tennessee Titans
- When: Sunday at 18:00 GMT
- TV: NFL Red Zone on Sky Sports Mix
- Best bet: D’Onta Foreman to score anytime at 11/4 (bet365)
- Best bet: Marcus Johnson to score anytime at 4/1 (bet365)
Foreman actually led the Titans in rush attempts last week, outpacing Adrian Peterson. It’s still going to be a split backfield, but this is more than promising for Foreman.
The Titans are 10.5 favourites in this game, and they face a Texans defence that ranks as the seventh worst in the league to RBs – conceding 11 TDs to the position through nine games.
Throw in the fact this is a revenge game for Foreman and you’ve got a perfect storm. He’s going to get volume, this price is far too high.
Another player I love in this game is Marcus Johnson. With Julio Jones on IR, Johnson has stepped us as WR2. Johnson has filled in for Julio three times this season, and he’s averaged a 20.5% target share in that period.
He’s fresh off a 100 yard game, and faces a Texans secondary that has surrendered over 1,500 yards & eight TDs to WRs this year. This is a massive price for a player with this big of a target share.
San Francisco 49ers @ Jacksonville Jaguars
- When: Sunday at 18:00 GMT
- TV: NFL Red Zone on Sky Sports Mix
- Best bet: Jeff Wilson to score anytime at 11/4 (bet365)
Starting running back Eli Mitchell just had surgery to repair a fractured finger. Somehow he still has a chance to play this weekend, but it’s unlikely. If Mitchell is a no go, I love Wilson.
Wilson saw a 27% run share last week as he returned from the IR list. Shanahan has displayed almost no trust in rookie RB Sermon, meaning Wilson will see a huge workload should Mitchell miss out.
The Jags have conceded 10 TDs to RBs through nine games, and this will likely be a positive game script for the 9ers – meaning more volume for Jeff.
Indianapolis Colts @ Buffalo Bills
- When: Sunday at 18:00 GMT
- TV: Sky Sports NFL
- Best bet: Jonathan Taylor to score anytime at 10/11 (General)
I normally go after bigger prices, but even at 10/11 it’s still value with Taylor.
The RB is breaking out as one of the best in the league – he has ten touchdowns in his last seven games. Sure, this matchup against the Bills isn’t ideal on paper, but the entire Colts offence goes through Taylor.
He’s averaging 16 carries a game alongside three and a half targets. He’s playing like the best running back in the league, but his price still hasn’t caught up yet.
Move now before Taylor enters Derrick Henry price territory.
Washington Football Team @ Carolina Panthers
- When: Sunday at 18:00 GMT
- TV: NFL Red Zone on Sky Sports Mix
- Best bet: Cam Newton to score anytime at 11/8 (Sky Bet)
Cam is back, and he let the league know – quite literally after his TD against the Cardinals he screamed “I’M BACK!” right down the barrel of the camera.
Cam is arguably the greatest red zone rushing QB there has ever been, and this week it’s all about the narrative. Panthers vs WFT, Cam vs his old coach, Ron Rivera – it couldn’t be more perfect for him.
Add on to that the fact that Washington have the worst defence in the league to QBs and it’s a match made in heaven – WFT have conceded 22 passing TDs to QBs (league high), alongside 219 rushing yards and two TDs.
Passing TDs won’t count for this bet, but it shows how vulnerable their defence is. With a fluid passing game this will leave large open holes for Cam to exploit with his legs.
Odds correct at 1600 GMT (19/11/21)
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