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xG Champions League Review: Round of 16 scorelines according to expected goals - Liverpool beaten, City held

By Sporting Life
12:46 · SUN February 26, 2023

We round up the Champions League action in a less traditional fashion, delivering the xG (expected goals) scoreline, an Infogol fairness rating and noteworthy data points.

What are Infogol fairness ratings?

  • We attempt to rank each match result by comparing the actual result against the range of possible game outcomes that could have arisen based on the quantity and quality of chances created by each side in the game.
  • This is scaled from 0 to 100, where 100 represents those occasions where the process most closely mirrors the real scoreline and lower scores indicate a match where the scoreline is not fully reflected in the balance of chances created.

Wednesday - Jake Osgathorpe

RB Leipzig 1-1 Manchester City

Manchester City were held in Germany after a much improved second half display from their hosts, who deservedly earned a draw.

Leipzig were comfortably second best in the first 45, registering just one shot and 0.06 xG, but despite their ball and territorial dominance, City didn't do enough to kill the game, racking up an xG total of just 0.40 themselves.

Riyad Mahrez did open the scoring in the first half, but his goal was the best chance the visitors created on the night (0.23 xG), and in the second half the hosts turned the screw.

Leipzig created the two best chances of the game through Andre Silva (0.49 xG) and goalscorer Josko Gvardiol (0.47 xG) while limiting their visitors only to low-probability efforts, which has to be seen as a positive heading into the second leg.

For City, this is fourth time in five away games across Premier League and UCL contest that they have failed to win, beating only Arsenal in that span.

Inter Milan 1-0 Porto

Inter Milan will take a lead with them to Portugal for the second leg thanks to Romelu Lukaku's late winner in Italy.

A home win was a fair scoreline, as Inter out-created their visitors according to xG, extending their run to nine straight home games across Serie A and UCL matches where they have edged the xG battle.

Porto did create a few decent chances on the night, with Mehdi Teremi failing to convert the games best chance (0.61 xG), but the tie remains very evenly poised as the pair head to the Dragão in three weeks time.

Tuesday - Tom Carnduff

Liverpool 2-5 Real Madrid

  • Infogol xG: 2.19 - 1.57
  • Fairness rating: 52.35
  • Scorers: Nunez 4', Salah 14' | Vinicius Junior 21', 36', Militao 47', Benzema 55', 67'

Real Madrid battled back from an early 2-0 deficit to beat Liverpool 5-2 in a Champions League thriller at Anfield.

While the holders were undoubtedly impressive in roaring back to win, the fact there five goals came from chances equating to just 1.57 expected goals (xG). Both teams had just nine shots in total, with Liverpool hitting the target five times and Madrid six.

It reflects both a touch of fortune for the visitors and also lives up to Real's reputation for sheer ruthlessness at key moments.

It means the tie is now as good as over, but it could have been so different for Liverpool. Darwin Nunez's wonderfully taken goal gave the Reds the lead just minutes in, with Thibaut Courtois' error capitalised on by Mohamed Salah 10 minutes later who converted the easy opportunity presented to him.

Remarkably, Real's two goals followed a similar pattern. Vinicius Junior's powerful drive found the bottom corner for an eye-catching goal of their own, before he charged down Alisson's clearance as they ball looped in for the equaliser.

Two well worked goals; two horrendous goalkeeping errors.

Éder Militão powered in a header unmarked from a corner early in the second-half, before the prolific Karim Benzema got in on the action.

The first had a hint of fortune, the second delivered with the expected class. A deflected shot wrong footed the Liverpool goalkeeper for Real's fourth, with the striker then leaving the Reds defence looking lost as he converted the fifth.

It was a great night for Real Madrid - who are all-but-through to the quarter-finals - and Sporting Life readers, with our preview delivering winners at 6/5, 7/2 and 16/1.

Eintracht Frankfurt 0-2 Napoli

  • Infogol xG: 0.33 - 2.63
  • Fairness rating: 99.77
  • Scorers: Osimhen 40', Di Lorenzo 65'

Napoli's fine season continued as a 2-0 win away at Eintracht Frankfurt put them in a commanding position to reach the Champions League quarter-finals.

Serie A's runaway leaders had little issues en route to their victory - ten shots on target met by the hosts' one with a clear gap in attacking quality.

Part of Napoli's overall xG was a penalty, although Khvicha Kvaratskhelia failed to convert his first-half spot kick.

It didn't cost them though, as the in-form Victor Osimhen netted before the break to put them ahead in the tie.

Despite it being a one-goal deficit, it was already looking like a mountain for the Bundesliga club to climb, and things were made even worse when star forward Randal Kolo Muani was shown a straight red just prior to the hour mark.

Giovanni Di Lorenzo made it two shortly after, and the Italian outfit look set to take their spot in the last-eight.

A low-scoring game was expected, with Sporting Life tipster Liam Kelly tipping Under 2.5 Goals at 11/10 and Both Teams to Score 'No' at 13/10 in his preview of the game.

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