Napoli head to Frankfurt in the first leg of this Champions League round of 16 tie. Liam Kelly has two best bets for the game.
It wouldn’t be hyperbolic to claim that Napoli have been the best team in Europe this season, far from it.
Luciano Spalletti’s side qualified for this round of 16 stage with consummate ease, scoring 20 and conceding six in a group that looked competitive at the time it was drawn, and they lead Serie A by a mammoth 15 points, holding a record of W20, D2, L1.
The Scudetto is firmly in Napoli’s grasp, but the way they’ve been winning matches recently may help us pick a winner for Tuesday’s game in Frankfurt.
Kick-off time: 20:00 GMT, Tuesday
TV channel: BT Sport 2
Napoli have been involved in games that are much tighter than they were previously. Indeed, the Italians were demolishing teams earlier in the campaign.
Lately, they've been much more economical in wins, despite some good scorelines.
While Spalletti's side have been creating chances, it's not quite at the outrageous rate as before the World Cup, and their defence has been incredibly stout recently.
Averaging just 0.54 expected goals against (xGA) per game across their last seven league matches, Napoli can remain a solid unit to take a good position back to the Diego Armando Maradona Stadium.
With that in mind, UNDER 2.5 GOALS is my first, and best, value play for this match-up.
Available at odds-against in most places, two or fewer goals is the way to go at Deutsche Bank Park.
In an often high-scoring Bundesliga, Eintracht Frankfurt are one of the few teams capable of keeping things tight, a welcome trait for the opening leg of a Champions League knockout round.
Based on xG, only five teams have allowed more scoring opportunities than Oliver Glasner's men domestically, which includes four of the top five in the table.
For the same reasons, a second selection of BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE 'NO' also looks value at 13/10.
Albeit to lower stakes, it's worth backing at least one team to keep a clean sheet in a tie that both will want to stay well in before the return leg in mid-March.
Eintracht Frankfurt v Napoli best bets and score prediction
- 1.5pts Under 2.5 Goals at 11/10 (Betfred)
- 1pt Both Teams to Score 'No' at 13/10 (BetVictor, 10bet, Parimatch)
Score prediction: Eintracht Frankfurt 0-1 Napoli (Sky Bet odds: 15/2)
Odds correct at 1530 GMT (20/02/23)
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