Wolves: Old Gold can shine again in the Premier League under Bruno Lage
The Premier League fixture generator has thrown out an interesting match-up on the second weekend of the new season, as Wolves manager Bruno Lage faces his predecessor Nuno Espirito Santo at Molineux.
Nuno, who left the club by mutual agreement in the offseason, led the Old Gold back to the big time in 2018, before going on to secure two consecutive — and incredibly impressive — seventh place finishes.
A disappointing 2020/21 campaign, consisting of negative football, culminated in the end of the Portuguese's tenure, paving the way for his compatriot, Lage, to be appointed. Nuno was subsequently hired by Wolves' next opponent, Tottenham, ending their farcical 72-day search for a boss.
Such a poor season might indicate that Lage has successfully applied to be captain of a sinking ship, but there are reasons to believe that the new Wolves manager has taken over a club well equipped for a swift revival.
A tough term for Wolves
Wolves' 13th place finish in 2020/21 was wholly justifiable based on advanced data. Underperforming distinctly average metrics is a dangerous recipe which affected Wolves on the offensive end, scoring only 36 goals from a total of 44.4 expected goals for (xGF) last season.
Defensively, they allowed 56.3 expected goals against (xGA), their highest total by far since returning to the Premier League.
If we compare those underlying numbers with their two previous top-flight seasons on a per game basis, the significantly lower points total and steep drop in placing makes sense.
The foundation behind Wolves' success was undoubtedly their sturdy backline, a unit that averaged 1.22 xGA per game in 2018/19 and an outstanding 1.08 xGA per game in 2019/20. That number rose to 1.48 last season.
Coupled with a diminished attack, which averaged 1.17 xGF and 0.95 actual goals per game in 2020/21 after two solid campaigns, a disappointing season was hardly surprising.
Extenuating circumstances
It is, of course, important to contextualise the numbers. In Wolves' case, an added layer of context does serve to explain at least some of their sharp decline.
Firstly, Matt Doherty and Diogo Jota earned big moves to Tottenham and Liverpool respectively in the summer of 2020, two key components in the club's setup.
Wolves' squad also suffered far more injuries than in previous seasons. Jonny, Willy Boly, Romain Saiss and Marçal all missed extended periods, markedly weakening the defensive solidity of the side. At the opposite end, Raúl Jiménez succumbed to a sickening head injury in the early part of the season, fracturing his skull against Arsenal in gameweek ten.
His absence was conspicuous. Wolves averaged 0.09 xG per shot in 2019/20, down from 0.13 the prior season, highlighting the lack of presence that Jiménez often provides in his all-important role as sole striker.
It is a blessing to Lage that the 30-year-old Mexican is well enough to resume his role, making his exceptionally welcome return in Wolves' 1-0 loss to Leicester last weekend.
Admittedly, Pedro Neto and Daniel Podence, standouts from the last campaign, both enter this season with long-term injuries, while goalkeeper Rui Patricio has left for Roma, but the addition of Francisco Trincão and José Sá suggest Wolves have learned a lot from their nightmarish campaign by adding depth, with both performing well on debut in the 2021/22 opener.
Encouragement despite opening defeat
Although Wolves came away from the King Power Stadium with nothing, there were positives to take from Lage's first competitive game in charge.
Wolves limited Leicester to just nine shots equating to 0.55 xG, ultimately undone by a typically sharp Jamie Vardy finish and a wasteful outing in front of goal from their own players — particularly Adama Traoré.
Lage was unhappy post-match after thinking his Wolves team "deserved more" than they got - which is understandable considering the match produced the lowest Infogol fairness rating of the Premier League weekend - but stated he was "confident with the process and the work" the club is doing.
His confidence is intelligible.
Although it may take some time for Lage to implement his ideas of a more attacking approach, he appeared happy for Wolves to display traits of the old Old Gold against Leicester, a process that is proven to be top-half level, while making the changes needed to build a team in his image.
Lage's use of a 3-4-3 last time out was evidence of that, so it will be interesting to see how Wolves line up against Nuno's Tottenham on Sunday.
Perhaps this weekend will come too soon for Lage to get the better of his predecessor in their head-to-head. Don't be surprised if it does happen, though. Wolves are not beyond repair.
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