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Premier League review: Bees buzz, Pogba provides & City continue hoodoo
Our analyst Liam Kelly reviews the Premier League action from a data perspective, highlighting points of interest from the opening weekend of matches.
The aim of this weekly column is to provide standout stats from each round of fixtures, use underlying numbers to identify recent trends and to inform punters with the tools to improve their betting on the Premier League.
Bees buzz after 74-year wait
As an advocate of the use of advanced analytics in football, it’s satisfying to see Brentford in the top tier for the first time since 1947 and, on first look, appearing comfortable there, winning 2-0 against Arsenal in the season curtain-raiser.
Thomas Frank’s side conceded an average of just 0.89 expected goals against (xGA) per game over the course of their promotion campaign, a trait which is never sure to translate at the next level. It did on Friday night.
Brentford took an early lead and pressed aggressively throughout, characteristics that often lead to added stress on a defensive unit, so the fact that the Bees only surrendered low-probability chances equating to 1.19 xG against a ‘big six’ team on Premier League debut bodes very well.
Ivan Toney may have put in a man of the match performance, proving a real handful all evening, and set pieces are obviously a point of emphasis for the data-driven revolutionaries, but make no mistake, Brentford’s solidity in defence will be the foundation behind their possible survival act.
Pogba the provider
Paul Pogba became only the seventh player in Premier League history to register four assists in the same game in Manchester United's opener, surpassing his total in both the 2019/20 and 2020/21 seasons (three in each) with a scintillating display against Leeds.
Admittedly, there was some excellent finishing from United in the 5-1 victory, scoring their goals from 1.27 xG, but the Frenchman's expected assists return (0.58 xA) undervalued the quality of his passing performance.
Paul Pogba today was unplayable — the first Manchester United player to register four assists in one single match. pic.twitter.com/YKjwMh7lmj
— Maram AlBaharna (@maramperninety) August 14, 2021
Pogba showed off his range with a first time chipped pass to Bruno Fernandes for the opener, a searching through ball that Mason Greenwood dispatched with aplomb, a well-timed feed to Fernandes for his second goal and a left-footed cutback for Fred to finish.
United's midfielder clearly won't be afforded the same freedom against a team not named Leeds, but Pogba's historic exhibition of passing prowess on Saturday afternoon deserves the requisite praise.
City's hoodoo at Spurs continues
The manner of Manchester City's 1-0 defeat at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium on Sunday afternoon was all too familiar for Pep Guardiola's side, creating more opportunities than their opponents (xG: TOT 1.30 - 2.41 MCI) — all to no avail.
City have lost four times in four visits to the North London venue, recording a total of 8.96 xG without hitting the back of the net. Infogol's model calculates a miniscule 0.01% chance that the champions would score no goals from those chances.
Pep's side have conceded six goals from 2.90 xG in those matches, left deflated by goals allowed on the counter attack after dominating every game.
The average 'fairness rating' in the four games between Spurs and City is 34.65, which works on the scale of 0-100. For perspective, the average fairness rating of a Premier League match with a full season of data is around 77-78.
- Infogol's fairness ratings compare the actual result against the range of possible game outcomes that could have arisen based on the quantity and quality of chances created by each side in the game.
This is not the week to be questioning the title credentials of Manchester City, especially after a result that, frustratingly for Pep, seems to happen every single season. Remember, City were 11th in the league table after 10 games last season.
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