Free betting tips: Wales v Republic of Ireland, Slovakia v Scotland - Nations League best bets & preview
Wales and the Republic of Ireland meet in the Nations League on Sunday, and so too do Slovakia and Scotland. Joe Townsend looks at the betting.
Recommended bets
1pt Under 1.5 goals in Republic of Ireland v Wales at 7/5
1pt Wales/under 2.5 goals at 5/2
0.5pt Gareth Bale to score from outside the area at 10/1
2pts Scotland to have more corners v Slovakia at 23/20
0.5pt e.w. Andy Robertson to score first in Slovakia v Scotland at 40/1 (1/3 1-99)
Republic of Ireland v Wales
- 17:00 GMT on Sky Sports
- Match odds: Home 9/5 | Draw 13/10 | Away 13/8
I struggle to see anything but a very tight encounter between two sides who really struggle to score goals. They played out a dour goalless draw in the reverse fixture last month, so it's hardly a rematch that whets the appetite.
Wales will once again have assistant coach Rob Page in charge, with Ryan Giggs staying away from the team after he denied an allegation of assault made against him.
Their recent friendly with the USA saw just six shots in the entire match, true to form considering Wales' recent goal-scoring record. One goal in four, three goals in six isn't good but when it comes to Sunday's opponents it's positively prolific.
The Republic of Ireland are yet to get going under Stephen Kenny, who has drawn three and lost three since replacing Mick McCarthy as manager. More painfully, they have score just once and failed to find the net in five successive matches.
It's a problem that long pre-dates the former Dundalk boss, as the Republic have now managed only 17 goals in 27 competitive fixtures; their tally is boosted by wins over minnows Moldova and Gibraltar too.
Aside from each being thumped 3-0 by England recently, both Wales and the Republic are defensively sound. That makes things worse when it comes to entertainment, but better for reliability purposes.
Under 2.5 goals is an unsurprising best price of 9/20, way too short to take my interest. Under 1.5 is far from a giant leap so to take that on at the general price of 7/5 is one to stick in the staking plan.
But while the Irish optimists are well within their rights to feel that the Kenny reign has to get going sooner or later, I just don't see any evidence to be able to support that view. Wales meanwhile are planning for next summer's Euro 2020, are unbeaten in eight home matches and have Gareth Bale back fit and available.
A home win and under 1.5 goals offers an enticing 4/1, but tagging on the extra goal we can still get 5/2 which I'm happy with.
In a match of few chances, a set-piece or a moment of individual brilliance feels most likely to settle it. Bale's prices as first or anytime goalscorer are something of a turn-off, but Sky Bet's boosted 10/1 for him to score from outside the box is stunning value.
The Spurs man has had three efforts from outside the area in his last two Wales appearances and averages 1.4 per game for club and country this season.
With the Republic likely to sit in and leave little space for many clear-cut chances to be carved out, Bale might need to find his range to squeeze out three points.
Score prediction: Wales 1-0 Republic of Ireland (Sky Bet odds: 4/1)
Best bets:
Belgium v England
- 7.45pm BST kick-off on Sky Sports
- Match odds: Home 13/10 | Draw 19/10 | Away 12/5
Slovakia v Scotland
- 14:00 GMT on Sky Sports
- Match odds: Home 13/8 | Draw 13/8 | Away 9/4
After Scotland clinched their place at Euro 2020 by winning a penalty shootout against Serbia on Thursday, Ryan Christie gave an emotional interview saying he hoped "everyone could have a party at home". It will surely be mutual party time in Bratislava on Sunday, as Slovakia celebrate their own dramatic play-off win over Northern Ireland too.
On the one hand, this is probably a match both teams could do without after their midweek exploits but on the other, preparations for the European Championship begin in earnest.
Scotland boss Steve Clarke spoke post-match in Belgrade about the team being focused on winning promotion from their Nations League group, but the reality is surely very different given the rollercoaster they've been on this week.
I won't be going near an outright punt, though if I had to the draw would be the play. What I do like is both teams to score at 11/10 with Sport Pesa, but it's a tad shorter than evens with most and the uncertainty of the fixture just puts me off.
While I can imagine a scenario where the defensive focus of both teams isn't there for the full 90 minutes given the build-up they've had, simply playing out a goalless draw wouldn't be a shock for exactly the same reasons.
On balance then, I'm avoiding it.
Elsewhere, in 'if it ain't broke don't fix it' fashion I'm taking one straight out of Tom Carnduff's playbook from Slovakia's game against Northern Ireland, and backing Scotland to win the corner count.
Slovakia have only had more corners in one of their last 13 games, and that was against minnows Azerbaijan.
Clarke's men are usually dominated in the corner count whoever they play, but the reverse fixture saw them have nine to Slovakia's five - case in point.
The bookies can't split them, but we'll take Scotland at 23/20 with Boylesports.
We had some real success in Scotland's last game, with three successful tips from four and only Serbia's 90th-minute equaliser denying us a full house.
Christie got the nod as first goalscorer, and delivered at 12/1, but in that preview captain Andy Robertson and Leeds defender Liam Cooper received honourable mentions for their 40/1 prices.
Cooper thundered an effort on to the bar against Israel last month, but is rarely a goal threat for club or country. Robertson on the other hand, usually has a shot or two per game and despite being more restrained for Scotland than Liverpool, the shackles will surely be loosened a little now a place at the Euros is secured.
I'm taking him each-way, with Sky Bet the place to go. Bet365 offer the same each-way terms, but their 22/1 price perhaps indicates we've found a gem.
Again if you look at the straight anytime prices, Robertson ranges from 17/2 to 18/1 - quite the disparity.
Score prediction: Slovakia 1-1 Scotland (Sky Bet odds: 5/1)
Best bets:
Odds correct at 1715 GMT (13/11/20)
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