Joe Townsend has a preview and best bets as England travel to the world's number one side Belgium in the Nations League on Sunday.
Recommended bets
2pts Both teams to score at 8/11
1pt Romelu Lukaku to score anytime at 6/4
0.5pt e.w. Tyrone Mings to score first at 40/1 (1/3 1-99)
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
Belgium v England
- 7.45pm BST kick-off on Sky Sports
- Match odds: Home 13/10 | Draw 19/10 | Away 12/5
Undoubtedly, Belgium will be heading into this Nations League clash looking for some revenge.
A month ago, the sides met for the first time since their World Cup third-place play-off in 2018 and quite frankly England were utterly outclassed until a couple of key decisions went in their favour.
In what was a first-half exhibition, the Belgians had a goal wrongly disallowed for offside and then after taking the lead through Romelu Lukaku's spot-kick they were pegged back by a Marcus Rashford penalty than never should have been given.
Full credit to Gareth Southgate's team for taking full advantage though, and being far braver in the second half. They did still require Mason Mount's fluke for victory however, which is why I'm coming down on the side of Belgium for this one.
While England may have looked all at sea in the early stages of last month's meeting, it's hard to overlook their defensive record: nine clean sheets and just four goals conceded in 13 matches.
But Belgium are on a 23-game scoring streak, stretching back to their wonderful World Cup semi-final against eventual winners France. All told, they've scored in 47 of Roberto Martinez's 49 games as boss; backing an England clean sheet isn't smart.
The Red Devils' defensive record is solid enough too, but they do tend to let one in. Their only clean sheet in eight matches came against goal-shy Denmark.
Though it wouldn't jump out to many, seeing both teams to score priced at 8/11 with William Hill was a surprise, and a big enough price for me to be happy taking a big interest.
From there, and with my confidence that Belgium - ranked number one in the world - have already shown that they are the better team, it all points me towards a 2-1 home win. Betfred have that priced at 9/1, and it's 8/1 across the board.
The Belgians' past three games have all ended 2-1, starting with defeat by England and followed by wins over Iceland and Switzerland. I much prefer going for that scoreline than taking the outright option, where you're lucky to find Belgium at 6/4.
A 6/4 price I do like is Lukaku to score anytime. The Inter Milan striker is a freak at international level, with 55 goals in 87 appearances. He is Belgium's penalty taker which helps.
For club and country the former Manchester United man has scored 10 times in 11 games this season, and his price is just too big to ignore.
He can be backed at 9/2 with bet365 to break the deadlock and I agonised over whether to back him in that market too, but you can't bet on everything...
Tyrone Mings is my man in that market instead, each-way at 40/1. The backbone of England's 2018 success was playing with a back three, and Southgate now appears set on a return to it.
Forgive me for stating the patently obvious here, but that means three central defenders - or at least it should, though the England boss appears tempted to once again use full-back Kyle Walker as a right-sided centre-back.
A bi-product of this formation is one that perhaps wouldn't immediately spring to mind. In Russia two years ago, Southgate's team were a huge threat at set-pieces with nine of their 12 goals coming from those situations.
Recently, Harry Maguire and Conor Coady have been on the scoresheet - both are unavailable to face Belgium through suspension and Covid-19 protocols respectively; Joe Gomez is absent through injury too.
Between them, England's centre-backs had eight shots on goal against the Republic of Ireland, with Maguire finding the net.
The first goalscorer market has Eric Dier, Michael Keane, Tyrone Mings and Walker all between 40/1 and 50/1 each-way. Keane and Mings have been in good scoring form for their clubs this season, while Walker recently netted for Manchester City.
Having started against Belgium last month, and been rested against the Republic, Walker and Dier seem certain to get the nod again, leaving Keane and Mings to battle for the final spot. With the latter substituted on Thursday night, I'm plumping for him.
He can be taken 18/1 anytime with Unibet or 888Sport, but with the uncertainty over selection I don't mind sacrificing a little and backing him at a reduced each-way price by taken the general 40/1 on offer for him as first goalscorer, meaning 13.3/1 anytime.
It gives us the insurance in case Mings isn't on the field when that first goal goes in.
Score prediction: Belgium 2-1 England (Sky Bet odds: 8/1)
Best bets:
Odds correct at 1415 GMT (13/11/20)
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