Joe Townsend looks at the betting for Sunday's Nations League action, which includes France v Portugal and the Republic of Ireland v Wales.
Recommended bets
1pt Under 1.5 total goals in Republic of Ireland v Wales at 33/20
1pt France and Portugal to draw at 26/11
0.5pt Dayot Upemacano to score anytime in France v Portugal at 22/1
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
Republic of Ireland v Wales
- 2pm BST kick-off on Sky Sports
- Match odds: Home 9/5 | Draw 13/10 | Away 13/8
It really is going to be difficult for the Republic of Ireland to get up for this game less than 72 hours on from losing their Euro 2020 play-off semi-final on penalties to Slovakia. Who knows though, maybe it's exactly what they'd want.
Wales, meanwhile showed promise in a 3-0 defeat by England, a scoreline which flattered their opponents, but struggled for cutting edge in the absence of star men Gareth Bale and Aaron Ramsey. Dan James should come into the side, but striker Kieffer Moore is doubtful after picking up a knock, so they could well be faced with similar issues.
It's a problem that has blighted the Republic, and ultimately cost them a place at next summer's Euros after dominating for 120 minutes in Bratislava on Thursday night. They've scored just 17 goals in 25 competitive matches - those numbers would be even worse if not for a few against Moldova and Gibraltar.
Wales' record isn't as tragic, but it's not much better. Both are pretty sound defensively too, which is why under 2.5 goals is 1/2 across the board. When low-scoring teams meet it's not rocket science to think under 1.5 goals is a smart play, and at 33/20 there's just enough value to be squeezed out.
If you'd like to pin your colours, there's a little more to be had in the clean sheet market with the hosts at 15/8 and Wales 17/10, but I prefer to factor in a 1-0 to either and leave it at that.
What we can't legislate for is whether Stephen Kenny's side come out with the shackles off after their midweek heartbreak, blowing us out of the water. All we can hope is that I'm not having this line sent to me on Twitter come Sunday afternoon.
I do fancy Kenny to pick up his first win as national boss at the fourth time of asking, but not enough to stake anything on it.
Score prediction: Republic of Ireland 1-0 Wales (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)
Best bet: Under 1.5 goals at 33/20
Belgium beat England 1-0 and 2-0 at the World Cup, matches they completely controlled. While the new, youthful Three Lions looked good in patches against Wales, I struggle to see this contest turning out much differently.
So instead of the clean sheet, I prefer Belgium/under 2.5 goals at a superb 9/2, alongside Belgium/under 3.5 at 5/2 which is still a tidy price while providing extra security.
Across the board England and Belgium are the same price in both those markets, which is non-sensical. The Belgians are top of the world rankings and a superior team, summed up last month when Southgate's men turned in turgid performances against Iceland and Denmark, but Belgium won 5-1 and 2-0.
It could just be the patriot in me, but I do hold some hope for Southgate's team and would be far from shocked to see this match finish 1-1. A straight bet on under 2.5 goals would be a smart play if there was any value there, but there isn't.
Elsewhere, England's likely wing-back duo caught my eye in the shots market, and it's Alexander-Arnold I like in particular.
The Liverpool full-back has had seven shots in his last three club games, with at least two in each match. He will be afforded the same attacking license as he is for the Reds by playing as a wing-back, while also taking on dead-ball duties.
That makes his prices of 3/1 to land one shot on target, and 5/2 to have two total shots generous in the extreme
Score prediction: England 0-2 Belgium (Sky Bet odds: 12/1)
Best bets:
- 1pt Belgium to beat England and under 3.5 total goals at 5/2
- 1pt Trent Alexander-Arnold to have 1+ shots on target at 3/1
- 0.5pt Belgium to beat England and under 2.5 total goals at 9/2
Click to read England v Belgium preview in full
France v Portugal
- 7.45pm BST kick-off on Sky Sports
- Match odds: Home 21/20 | Draw 21/10 | Away 11/4
The kind of fixture the Nations League was made for: World Cup winners v European and Nations League champions. It's also a rematch of the Euro 2016 final which saw Portugal upset the hosts and win their first major tournament; hopefully the game itself isn't an anticlimax.
World champions France won 7-1 in midweek, thrashing a Ukraine team whose squad was decimated by Covid-19 withdrawals. Portugal drew their own friendly 0-0 with great rivals Spain, a match that deserved goals.
France's latest victory followed their perfect start to the Nations League last month, when they beat Sweden 1-0 away and came from behind to win another rematch, of the 2018 World Cup final, 4-2 against Croatia. Portugal beat the same pair of opponents 2-0 and 4-1 respectively.
These are two teams that shouldn't be easy to split, and yet the bookies haven't found it at all difficult.
France are hovering a shade over the evens mark with most, while defending champions Portugal can be taken at better than 3/1. The fact Fernando Santos' team are such a big price would suggest you can get a decent offering on the double chance, but it's not the case with 3/4 as good as can be found.
A year ago Portugal suffered a shock 2-1 defeat by Ukraine, a result that cost them top spot at the expense of their opponents but that remains their only loss in 19 internationals, a spell of fixtures that has included games against Croatia, Italy, Poland, Switzerland, the Netherlands, Sweden and Spain - they haven't simply been playing minnows.
France's form is similarly impressive, with defeats by the Dutch (Nations League) and Turkey (Euro qualifier) in 2018/19 their most recent blemishes in a spell of superb form stretching back five years.
I don't favour either team here, and while I'll kick myself should Portugal come away from Paris with three points, my general rule is to take the draw when I feel that way IF the price is there; 26/11 is enough.
Now here is a price that really caught my eye: Dayot Upemacano to score anytime at 22/1. It sticks out like a sore thumb because some bookmakers have him as short as 7/1.
In four of France's six previous competitive home games, including their last two, a centre-back has scored. Upemacano is the most recent do so, netting in the win over Croatia.
With Didier Deschamps now regularly using a back three, with a combination of Upemacanao, Clement Lenglet (17/1), Lucas Hernandez (16/1), Raphael Varane (14/1) and Samuel Umtiti (not in squad), it's hard to know who to back in this market.
Upemacano is our man not only because of his astronomical price, but because the RB Leipzig man has been Deschamps' most consistent defensive selection.
I wouldn't advise against waiting for team sheets and taking small stakes to all three France centre-backs if the prices stay in the mid-teens. But that 22/1 won't hang around.
Score prediction: France 1-1 Portugal (Sky Bet odds: 5/1)
Best bets:
Odds correct at 1630 BST 09/10/20
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