Joe Townsend has a preview and best bets as England face the world's top-ranked side Belgium in the Nations League on Sunday - their first meeting since the 2018 World Cup's third-place play-off.
Recommended bets
1pt Belgium to beat England and under 3.5 total goals at 5/2
1pt Trent Alexander-Arnold to have 1+ shots on target at 3/1
0.5pt Belgium to beat England and under 2.5 total goals at 9/2
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
England v Belgium
- 5pm BST kick-off on Sky Sports
- Match odds: Home 17/10 | Draw 9/4 | Away 6/4
England's Nations League double-header with Iceland and Denmark a month ago was truly forgettable, an injury-time Raheem Sterling penalty in Reykjavik the only goal across 180 minutes of 'action'.
Half-an-hour into Thursday's friendly with Wales that trend was continuing, with a drab showing from Gareth Southgate's much-changed team leading to some very understandable moans and groans.
But a debut goal from the unstoppable Dominic Calvert-Lewin, heading home a perfect Jack Grealish cross, followed by first England goals for Conor Coady and Danny Ings suddenly had some optimism returning. And why not?
Calvert-Lewin, Grealish, Danny Ings and the teenage Bukayo Saka were all handed full debuts in in a starting XI that had a very fresh feel to it; at 54 it contained the same number of international caps as collected by Wales left-back Ben Davies. Harvey Barnes and Reece James added to that sentiment by making their first senior appearances off the bench.
The 23-man matchday squad included only six players who were in Russia two years ago when England's men ended a 28-year wait to reach a World Cup semi-final, winning the hearts of the nation in the process. In the six months prior, Southgate ruthlessly gutted an established team in favour of less experienced, younger players.
As the Three Lions prepare to face Belgium for the first time since 2018's third-place play-off, he is primed to do it again.
Southgate's selection headaches
Knowing who is going to play is always tricky in an international fixture, and what hasn't helped is the strong performances of several England players who stepped in against Wales.
Tammy Abraham, Ben Chilwell and Jadon Sancho have all returned to the squad after missing Thursday's friendly following a Covid-19 breach. The former was never really in contention to start, but both Chilwell and Sancho are now under pressure.
Grealish and Saka, directly competing with the duo for a place in the XI, were arguably England's best players at Wembley. What is more, Chilwell and Sancho have barely played for their clubs this season because of injury and illness respectively.
With Raheem Sterling absent, it's hard to imagine Southgate not selecting Harry Kane and Marcus Rashford, which would would mean I straight choice between Grealish and Sancho should the England boss opt for 3-4-3 for a third successive match, something that seems likely given Belgium's preference for that system.
Jordan Pickford, Harry Maguire and Declan Rice are near enough certainties to come in, but despite his incredible form for Liverpool over the past two years there's no guarantee Trent Alexander-Arnold will get the nod over another Southgate favourite in Trippier.
Harry Winks is likely to get the nod in central midfield, but any combination of Coady, Joe Gomez, Michael Keane and Tyrone Mings could partner Maguire in a two or three-man central defence.
Predicted XI: Pickford; Gomez, Maguire, Mings; Alexander-Arnold, Rice, Winks, Chilwell; Sancho, Kane, Rashford.
Familiar faces in Belgium squad
Sunday's match will almost have a feel of a contest masquerading as a English top-flight fixture, so familiar will so many of the Belgium players be to fans of the Premier League.
Perhaps even more so than Southgate, Roberto Martinez very much went with a second string XI for Thursday 1-1 friendly draw against Ivory Coast.
Toby Alderweireld, Thibaut Courtois, Kevin De Bruyne, Romelo Lukaku, Thomas Meunier, Youri Tielemans and Axel Witsel were given extra time off in the early part of the week to freshen them up for the clash at Wembley.
One player who is unlikely to start is former Chelsea star, and current Belgium captain, Eden Hazard. He is yet to play a minute of action this season as he continues to struggle with injury.
But we have a pretty good idea of the team Martinez will go with as seven players started both their Nations League matches last month, and three of the four who didn't were Courtois, De Bruyne and Lukaku.
It's likely there will be between five and eight former or current Premier League players in the Belgium team.
Predicted XI: Courtois; Alderweireld, Denayer, Vertonghen; Castagne, Witsel, De Bruyne, T Hazard; Mertens, Lukaku, Carrasco.
Betting preview
While there has certainly been a lack of creativity in the England ranks during recent performances, what you cannot dispute is that they've managed to build a solid defensive foundation: six straight clean sheets, and eight in 10 matches.
And more recently, it really does feel like Southgate has reverted to the back three which was the backbone of his 2018 success with the long-term aim of next summer's Euros.
Defensively, it has been a resounding success. England have now played 15 matches with a three-man defence - the majority before, during and after the World Cup - and on only three occasions have they conceded more than once - Croatia, Belgium and Spain the teams who managed to score two.
An England clean sheet would end Belgium's 20-game scoring streak, a run that stretches back to their rip-roaring World Cup semi-final with France, which the eventual champions edged 1-0. That remains the only competitive fixture in which Belgium have not scored under Roberto Martinez.
The Red Devils lost a friendly 2-0 to Spain in his first game in charge; a goalless draw with Portugal a couple of years later is the only other occasion that they have failed to net in 46 matches with the Spaniard at the helm.
Across the board England to keep a clean sheet is available at around the 5/2 mark, with Belgium 12/5 in the same market. You would be bold to take Martinez's team on at 5/2, and I just have this nagging feeling England could snatch a goal.
While not as statistically impressive in recent matches, the Belgians' defensive record is similar to England, aside from a freak 5-2 defeat by Switzerland in the inaugural Nations League group stage, but they do often let one in.
Belgium beat England 1-0 and 2-0 at the World Cup, matches they completely controlled. While the new, youthful Three Lions looked good in patches against Wales, I struggle to see this contest turning out much differently.
So instead of the clean sheet, I prefer Belgium/under 2.5 goals at a superb 9/2, alongside Belgium/under 3.5 at 5/2 which is still a tidy price while providing extra security.
Across the board England and Belgium are the same price in both those markets, which is non-sensical. The Belgians are top of the world rankings and a superior team, summed up last month when Southgate's men turned in turgid performances against Iceland and Denmark, but Belgium won 5-1 and 2-0.
It could just be the patriot in me, but I do hold some hope for Southgate's team and would be far from shocked to see this match finish 1-1. A straight bet on under 2.5 goals would be a smart play if there was any value there, but there isn't.
Elsewhere, England's likely wing-back duo caught my eye in the shots market, and it's Alexander-Arnold I like in particular; it will be a bitter blow if Tripper is picked ahead of him.
The Liverpool full-back has had seven shots in his last three club games, with at least two in each match. He will be afforded the same attacking license as he is for the Reds by playing as a wing-back, while also taking on dead-ball duties.
That makes his prices of 3/1 to land one shot on target, and 5/2 to have two total shots generous in the extreme. On the other side, Chilwell is the same price in the former but 4/1 in the latter.
This discrepancy really highlights that it's the 3/1 we should be taking given Alexander-Arnold's free-kick specialism.
While I won't get credit for this in the tipping record should it happen, if it is Trippier who gets the nod then he could be worth taking in the SOT market as another free-kick expert. Given his more conservative all-round play it's not worth backing him in the total shots market though.
Score prediction: England 0-2 Belgium (Sky Bet odds: 12/1)
Best bets:
England v Belgium Opta stats
- England lost just one of their first 21 matches against Belgium (W15 D5) but have since lost each of their last two games against the Belgians, both at the 2018 World Cup.
- Belgium are looking to become the first team since France between 2004 and 2010 to win three consecutive games against England, and only the fourth in three consecutive competitive games, after Scotland (1962-64), Italy (1980-97) and Brazil (1962-2002).
- Since losing 4-1 against Germany at the 2010 World Cup, England haven’t lost a match on a Sunday (P13 W9 D4), winning five of their six Sunday matches under Gareth Southgate.
- England have kept a clean sheet in each of their last six matches – should they keep a clean sheet against Belgium, it will be the longest run of games without conceding in the national side’s history.
- England have won 19 of their last 20 competitive home matches (L1), the only loss in this run being a 1-2 defeat at the hands of Spain in September 2018.
- Belgium have scored in each of their last 19 away matches, scoring 54 goals (W15 D2 L2), while scoring at least twice in 16 of those 19 games, including each of their last 13 (38 goals scored).
- Harry Kane has been directly involved in 10 goals in his last five home matches for England (nine goals & one assist), scoring two hat-tricks in this run – against Bulgaria in September 2019 and Montenegro in November 2019, in what was his most recent home game; the only previous player to score a hat-trick in consecutive home appearances for England was Tommy Taylor between 1956 and 1957 versus Denmark and the Republic of Ireland.
- Belgium striker Michy Batshauyi has scored four goals in two UEFA Nations League starts – both against Iceland – although Batshuayi has never scored at Wembley in four previous club appearances, all with Chelsea in 2017, netting an own goal three minutes after coming on as a substitute in August 2017 against Spurs.
Odds correct at 1300 BST 09/10/20
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