Lincoln meet Sunderland in the second League One play-off semi-final on Wednesday. Michael Beardmore previews the first leg at Sincil Bank with two best bets.
Football betting tips: Lincoln v Sunderland
1pt A penalty to be scored at 11/4 (General)
1pt First goal to be a header 9/2 (Sky Bet)
Only goal difference separated Sunderland and Lincoln at the end of the League One season, the Black Cats’ superior defensive record earning them fourth spot and second-leg home advantage in this play-off semi.
When the two sides met at Sincil Bank in December, Sunderland ran out surprisingly easy 4-0 winners but I expect this to be tight, similar to their other two meetings this term – 1-1 draws in the league and EFL Trophy.
Picking a first-leg winner is tough as both arrive in the play-offs in fairly poor form and with 17 of Sunderland’s league games having finished level this term, the draw appeals but is rightly-priced at a short 21/10 generally.
Sunderland get the 'nod' with Charlie Wyke head boy
Sunderland failed to keep a clean sheet in their final 10 league games, while Lincoln have shipped goals against the division’s best teams – in 18 matches against the top 10, they conceded 27 times.
To put that into context, Michael Appleton's men only let in 23 in their other 28 games and that struggle for clean sheets against the top sides leads me to believe there will be a goal or two, maybe more, here.
Sunderland striker Charlie Wyke unsurprisingly heads the goalscorer betting after netting 30 in all competitions and you will find far worse prices than Unibet’s 43/20 on him to score anytime.
Read Sporting Life's Sky Bet EFL play-offs outright previews
Wyke’s form has dipped recently, however, by his own high standards, just three goals in his past 11 games and if you do fancy him to score first I have a better angle at a higher price.
Sky Bet offer 9/2 on the FIRST GOAL TO BE A HEADER and given that 12 of Wyke’s 25 league goals have been with his head, that looks a smart play.
Add in the fact that virtually a third of Sunderland’s 70 goals have been from headers (23), while Lincoln have nodded in 15 of 69 and that comes to 27% of the two sides’ goals coming via that route.
Lincoln are League One's penalty kings
Another decent scoring option is Lincoln’s Jorge Grant to score anytime at 7/2 with Paddy Power and Betfair – attractive odds on a creative player who has scored 17 goals in 48 appearances this term.
Again, I wouldn’t put you off that at all but given that 10 of Grant’s strikes have come from the spot, I think the 11/4 on offer generally for A PENALTY TO BE SCORED IN THE MATCH is the way to go.
No League One team’s games have featured more penalties than Lincoln this season – awarded 15 and conceding five – while Sunderland (received eight, given away seven) are not far behind.
Altogether, that’s 35 spot-kicks in 92 games combined, an average of one every 2.6 matches and while you can take the 2/1 on a penalty to be awarded, let’s live a little and gamble it goes in, eh?
Lincoln have scored 11 of 15 penalties, Sunderland seven of eight, plus only one was missed in the Black Cats' 5-3 EFL Trophy shoot-out win over the Imps so the jump to 11/4 is inviting on two sides accurate from the spot.
Lincoln v Sunderland score prediction and best bets
- A penalty to be scored at 11/4 (General)
- First goal to be a header 9/2 (Sky Bet)
Score prediction: Lincoln 1-1 Sunderland (Sky Bet odds: 5/1)
Odds correct 1300 BST (18/05/21)
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