Manchester Utd v Leeds: Marcelo Bielsa has progressed his team further
Leeds United entered the 2020/21 season with a simple goal, to stay in the Premier League — a league they played no part in for 16 years.
Marcelo Bielsa's men were soon dubbed the entertainers, swiftly raising expectations that they would still go on to shatter with a deserved top half finish.
This term, Leeds can begin the campaign safe in the knowledge that relegation is almost out of the question, proving to be a cut above that level after developing into a team to be feared over the course of last season.
Oddly enough, they start 2021/22 with a match-up that elicited the progression necessary to become challengers for European football, facing bitter rivals Manchester United away from home on Saturday. The match is highly unlikely to end in the same manner given the strides Leeds have made since December.
Old Trafford goal-fest a teachable moment
It might appear convenient, at least from a narrative perspective, that a crucial point in Leeds' 2020/21 Premier League season was the same fixture we will see on the opening day of this campaign, but it was a significant part in the "process of growth" Bielsa was looking for in the top tier.
That's not to say that Leeds weren't impressing as a newly-promoted team in the lead up to the 6-2 defeat at Old Trafford. On the contrary, Bielsa's side had just beaten Newcastle 5-2 in midweek, vaulting themselves eight points clear of the relegation zone at that point, making some post-match insinuations of naivety difficult to digest.
It was, however, a deserved beating that was more than worthy of introspection; Manchester United registering 4.18 expected goals (xG) to Leeds' 2.07.
Although there might have been little to suggest their mercurial manager sacrificed his refreshing approach to football, Leeds' underlying numbers indicate a solid improvement on the defensive side of the ball following the heavy defeat to United.
Recording an average of 1 goal conceded per game overstates the advancements made over the last 24 league matches, allowing 1.51 expected goals against (xGA) per game during the same period, but there was a positive shift in almost all of Leeds' defensive metrics.
Another notable detail is the marked decrease in 'big chances' allowed per game, which dropped from 1.43 to 1.13.
- Infogol defines a 'big chance' as a shot at goal that has a greater than 35% probability of being scored.
It shows the development of a Leeds unit that left their defence exposed in the early parts of the season, displayed effectively by the difference between that 6-2 loss to Manchester United and the goalless draw in the reverse fixture at Elland Road (xG: LEE 0.33 - 1.05 MUN).
Getting "closer to the best"
Truth be told, perhaps a better barometer of Leeds' growth is their improved performances against the top four teams last season.
In a press conference after the Old Trafford defeat, Bielsa eloquently communicated his desire for his Leeds team to become "closer to the best" teams in the Premier League. To do so, he stated his side would have to capitalise on errors made to improve.
Results and underlying data did, in fact, show Leeds had made good on Bielsa's wish by the second meeting.
Admittedly, having looked the superior side in the first match-up, 10-man Leeds were fortunate to beat would-be champions Manchester City at the Etihad in April, scoring two goals from two shots equating to 0.09 xG to cause the upset, but against the other teams that finished in the top four, they performed better than in previous games.
Leeds averaged 3.99 xGA per game in the first meetings with Manchester United, Liverpool and Chelsea, losing all three matches. In the reverse fixtures, Bielsa's side averaged 1.21 xGA per game, gaining three points from three draws — a clear sign of progression.
Other factors are considered when reflecting on Leeds' improvement throughout the season, though, not just a seemingly more pragmatic style of play.
Injuries were an issue for most of their campaign, with centre-backs Liam Cooper, Robin Koch and Diego Llorente all having spells on the sideline, while the left-back position was a consistent headache until Ezgjan Alioski made the spot his own.
The emergence of Pascal Struijk as a legitimate Premier League class defender was a bonus, too, alongside his flexibility to move into midfield when required. All of which equated to a reasonable amount of strength in depth toward the back end of the season.
How good are Leeds United?
It's hard to criticise Marcelo Bielsa or Leeds United for what was a relatively exceptional first season back in the big time, finishing with a flourish to end the campaign in ninth place, just eight points away from a Champions League spot.
An improved backline came at a small cost to their often absorbing attack, with Leeds averaging 1.84 expected goals for (xGF) per game across the first 14 games and 1.52 xGF per game over the final 24, but, worryingly for the rest of the Premier League, Bielsa's objective to solidify his team without curbing his attacking ethos appeared to be bearing fruit in the final games of 2020/21.
Results towards the end of a season can sometimes be taken with a pinch of salt, but the Yorkshire club were impressive nonetheless, averaging 2.22 xGF and 1.22 xGA per game in four comfortable wins, rounding off a wildly successful campaign exquisitely.
That is surely the benchmark Bielsa has set heading into the new season. It is undoubtedly high, but if Leeds can hold it, they become more than just the Premier League entertainers.