Jake Osgathorpe previews Manchester United’s Premier League opener against Leeds United, selecting his best bet and score prediction.
It has been another good transfer window for Manchester United, bringing in Jadon Sancho and Raphael Varane, two players that strengthen their starting XI.
Sancho is expected to play some part in this game, but it may come too soon for Varane, who I think everyone sees as an upgrade on Victor Lindelof.
United’s back four all of a sudden looks elite, but the main question marks around Ole Gunner Solskjaer’s side comes in the centre of midfield, where they have struggled for balance over the past few seasons.
Kick-off time: 12:30 BST, Saturday
TV Channel: BT Sport 1
Midfield issues for United
When opting to play more defensive and on the counter attack, they excel in keeping things tight and protecting the defence, but when playing lesser sides and wanting play on the front foot, they are either too defensive minded or too gung-ho.
The hope will be that the introduction of Varane will mean that they can be more attack-minded and get away with it, but without him in there (and maybe even when he is introduced) it will be similar to last season for United.
They looked electric in attack at times, averaging 1.74 expected goals for (xGF) per game – a figure that provides plenty of room for improvement – but defensively they appeared vulnerable, allowing 1.25 expected goals against (xGA) per game.
Leeds are in town for this opener, and will be looking to avenge their 6-2 defeat at Old Trafford last term, a thoroughly entertaining game that saw both teams open the other up at will.
Marcelo Bielsa’s side have come a long way since then though, finishing the campaign extremely well to ensure ninth spot, and while they improved defensively towards the back end of the season, they were still shipping plenty of opportunities.
After the turn of the year, Leeds allowed 1.54 xGA per game, but that wasn’t a massive issue thanks to their attacking capabilities, which cancelled out their defensive performances (1.50 xGF per game).
They are in a better position heading into this season, having made a few signings as well as seeing injured players return, so expect them to be among the top half again.
Back goals at Old Trafford
Leeds will take the game to United here, mainly because they will sense a weakness in United’s midfield and defence, but also because that is just who they are as a team.
United won’t mind that, and will create an abundance of chances with their extra quality in forward areas, meaning we could be in for another cracker between these two sides.
BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE therefore appeals at a best price of 4/5.
Manchester United saw BTTS land in 63% of league matches last season, while Leeds failed to score in just 26% of their fixtures.
Manchester United v Leeds best bets and score prediction
- 2.5pts Both Teams To Score at 4/5 (MansionBet)
Score prediction: Manchester United 2-1 Leeds (Sky Bet odds: 13/2)
Odds correct at 160 BST (11/08/21)
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