Sky Bet League Two betting tips: Outright play-offs best bets and preview
Regular League Two writer Michael Beardmore previews the fourth-tier play-off battle with data, insights and an outright pick for promotion.
Football betting tips: Sky Bet League Two play-offs
2pts Newport County to win the Sky Bet League Two play-offs at 29/10 (SBK)
This is a pretty simple preview with the following advice – flip two coins, one for each semi-final. Then flip another for the final. There you go, job done, crack on.
Of course I jest. Sort of. But the bookmakers have basically thrown a blanket over the four sides involved and with good reason – it’s difficult to separate them with three finishing level on points.
Usually, there’s one or two teams that stand out in the play-off pack – a side that’s been strong all season and just missed out on automatic promotion or one that’s hit form at just the right time.
There’s no such luxury here – Morecambe, Newport, Forest Green and Tranmere have been top-seven staples since February or earlier in some cases and all, at some stage, had top-three hopes.
When are the Sky Bet League Two play-offs?
The Sky Bet League Two play-offs get under way on Tuesday, May 18 and will conclude on Monday, May 31 with all five matches shown live on Sky Sports Football.
The full semi-final schedule is:
- Newport v Forest Green: Tuesday, May 18 at 20:15
- Tranmere v Morecambe: Thursday, May 20 at 18:00
- Morecambe v Tranmere: Sunday, May 23 at 12:30
- Forest Green v Newport: Sunday, May 23 at 18:30
The final will be staged at Wembley Stadium on Monday, May 31.
For full details click here.
Who historically wins the League Two play-offs?
Crazily enough, in recent years, it’s the team in seventh position. That’s right, in five of the past ten years, the side that has sneaked into the play-offs has gone all the way, boding well for Tranmere.
The team in fourth has only been promoted once – and only three such teams have reached the final. Madness.
- Fourth place: One promotion, two losing finalists
- Fifth place: One promotion, three losing finalists
- Sixth place: Three promotions, three losing finalists
- Seventh place: Five promotions, two losing finalists
Interestingly, three of these teams featured in the League Two play-offs only two seasons ago as Tranmere beat Forest Green in the semis before seeing off Newport in the final at Wembley.
Rovers came straight back down but that was via points-per-game when the coronavirus outbreak curtailed the season – just as Tranmere were picking up form.
A sense of injustice remains at Prenton Park and will drive them on – but the sacking of boss Keith Hill right before the play-offs was odd and questions linger over top scorer James Vaughan’s fitness.
What do the League Two form table & head-to-head say?
Over the final ten matches of the regular season, Morecambe were the form horses of the four, picking up 19 points from a possible 30, missing out on automatic promotion by a single point.
By boss Derek Adams’ own admission, no one expected the Shrimps – regular bottom-half finishers over the past decade – to be in this position and the pressure of this being their best shot could tell.
Newport have been the ‘Steady Eddies’ of the group, in and around the top seven all season, but Tranmere and Forest Green have each picked up only 11 points from their past 10 games.
I’m a firm believer that some teams can make the play-offs by being consistent against the division’s poorer sides but miss out on promotion because they struggle to beat the very best.
So, I plotted each team’s results against the rest of the top seven, including the sides who went up automatically and, as you can see, Morecambe did not fare well at all despite finishing highest.
- Morecambe - 11pts
- Newport - 20pts
- Forest Green - 18pts
- Tranmere - 17pts
Tranmere’s figure, however, owes a lot to a purple patch in the middle of the season – they have dropped off since then, leaving Newport and Forest Green as the consistent point collectors.
What does the data tell us?
Expected Goals data also gives us an idea of which teams have overperformed, with Morecambe and Tranmere both securing play-off spots despite having among the lowest xGF (Expected Goals For) numbers in the division, 18th and 19th respectively with 1.14 and 1.13 xGF.
Forest Green (1.57) and Newport (1.43) reside in the top ten – and are also in the best four for xGA (Expected Goals Against), while Morecambe are in the bottom four, indicating they owe their lofty position to some fortune along the way.
Tranmere are in the top eight for xGA, having tightened up at the back noticeably in recent weeks, although that has very much come at the expense of their attacking play – their final eight matches featured just nine goals in total.
What is expected goals (xG)?
- Expected goals (xG) is a metric that measures the quality of any given scoring opportunity
- Expected goals for (xGF) is the xG created by a team
- Expected goals against (xGA) is xG conceded by a team
Who will win the League Two play-off semi-finals?
Newport County v Forest Green Rovers
- Season head-to-head: Forest Green 1-1 Newport (December 1); Newport 0-2 Forest Green (February 21)
- Game dates: Tuesday, May 18 at 20:15; Sunday, May 23 at 18:30
Forest Green got the better of Newport over their two meetings this season but an important aside to note is that 16-goal top scorer Jamille Matt, now injured, netted in both of those games.
Since former Newport striker Matt’s season was ended by a horrible-looking hand injury, the Gloucestershire side won just three of their final 10 regular-season games, losing five and are under the caretaker stewardship of Jimmy Ball after Mark Cooper’s sacking.
It’s worth noting that Newport, who finished a place higher, have given up home advantage in the second leg, hosting the first encounter instead because of renovation work booked for their pitch.
For me, the winner of this semi-final goes on to win promotion and with Matt absent, plus Newport being in decent nick – one defeat in nine game, including six clean sheets – I’m siding with the Exiles.
Tranmere Rovers v Morecambe
- Season head-to-head: Tranmere 0-1 Morecambe (October 31); Morecambe 0-1 Tranmere (January 31)
- Game dates: Thursday, May 20 at 18:00 and Sunday, May 23 at 12:30
Morecambe should, by rights, be favoured here seeing as they finished five points and three places above Tranmere but the bookies can’t split them at 5/6 each and I understand why.
The head-to-head is locked level and there are imponderables on both sides: the impact of Hill’s departure on Tranmere – will it lift or rock them? – and the psychological effect of Morecambe missing out on automatic promotion by a point.
If Vaughan – League Two’s joint third top scorer on 18 goals despite only playing 29 games – starts both legs, I’d lean towards Tranmere but he has been used sparingly since returning from injury.
Verdict: A watching brief. Either side to go through on penalties could be the best second-leg bet.
Who will win the League Two play-offs?
Having watched all four teams at some point during the season, NEWPORT have the edge for me.
They have stability with long-serving boss Michael Flynn and churn out results reliably, performing well in the xG metrics and topping our ‘mini league table’ of results against the rest of the top seven.
The managerial upheavals at Forest Green and Tranmere make it tough to back either with a large amount of conviction and the play-offs are wholly new to Morecambe who, as noted, have struggled against their peers.
Sky Bet League Two play-offs best bet
- Newport County to win the League Two play-offs at 29/10 (SBK)
Odds correct at 1400 BST (12/05/21)
More from Sporting Life
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.