Football Outrights: Women’s Euros tips and predictions
The 2022 Women's Euros gets underway in less than a week, and Sophie Lawson previews the tournament, highlighting some and selections of note.
Football betting tips: Women's Euros
3pts e.w. Sweden to win Women's Euros at 17/2 (Betfair, Paddy Power 1/2 1,2)
2pts e.w. Vivianne Miedema to win the Golden Boot at 10/1 (Sky Bet 1/4 1,2,3)
1pt e.w. Stina Blackstenius to win the Golden Boot at 20/1 (Sky Bet 1/4 1,2,3)
1pt Denmark to qualify from Group B at 7/2 (Sky Bet)
1pt Lauren Hemp to win Player of the Tournament at 20/1 (Sky Bet)
The Women's Euros is set to be an enthralling and high-quality tournament for everyone to look forward to this summer, especially with England expected to do well on home soil.
The Lionesses are currently the 4/1 second favourites with Sky Bet to lift the trophy, behind only Spain (7/2), with the betting heavily weighted towards six teams at the top of the market - all 7/1 or shorter.
Women's Euros winner odds (via Sky Bet)
- 7/2 - Spain
- 4/1 - England
- 5/1 - France
- 6/1 - Netherlands
- 7/1 - Germany, Sweden
- 14/1 - Norway
- 28/1 - Denmark, Italy
Odds correct at 1200 (30/06/22)
Can England win Women's Euro 2022?
Tipped as favourites by many around the game, we have to talk about the host nation and whether or not it will be coming home this summer.
Having undergone a mini overhaul under new coach Sarina Wiegman - the former Dutch coach who led her nation to Euros glory on home soil in 2017 - and possessing a fantastic depth of attack that rarely fails to find the target, the Lionesses do look a solid prospect.
They are a semi-final regular having reached the last four in their last three tournaments, taking home a historic bronze at the 2015 World Cup, although the team haven't be able to repeat the feat or go further since.
Even those with just a passing interest in women's football in England will likely have heard LAUREN HEMP's name thrown around ahead of the tournament, the Manchester City winger one of the most exciting young players in Europe.
She averaged an impressive 0.89 expected goal involvements (xGI) per 95 minutes in the WSL last season, per fbref.
Although she's likely to notch at least once this July, I wouldn't rush to back her scooping the golden boot, but the GOLDEN BALL however...
As said, the Lionesses posses depth in the forward positions and have very much been sharing the goals out around the squad, from Ellen White up top, to centre back Millie Bright, so it would be prudent to look for a top goalscorer elsewhere.
Favourites offer no value
Along with England and Sweden, who we'll come to later, you'll see short prices about Spain, France, the Netherlands and Germany this summer: Germany the eight-time Euro champions, France the perennial favourites, the reigning champions the Dutch and Spain with a healthy contingent of Barcelona players (2020-21 Champions League winners), but I'm here to provide some caveats to all four.
Let's begin with that juggernaut of women's football, Germany.
They've won the Euros eight times in just 10 appearances, but the team are not the same mentality monsters they once were and have been hugely inconsistent under current coach Martina Voss-Tecklenburg.
Another nation with an endless pipeline of youth players, especially attackers, there is never the want for attacking depth in a Germany squad but since the 2019 World Cup, Voss-Tecklenburg has struggled with knowing her best XI and has chopped and changed so often the players haven't been given time to forge clear partnerships with each other.
Germany aren't the only team who have fallen into the "could fail to get out of the group or could win the whole thing" category but it's their clearest identity ahead of the start of the Euros.
If Germany can get the ball to Lea Schuller - one of the most natural goalscorers at the tournament and natural shout for golden boot winner - the rest may just work itself out.
Like Germany, France have an eye-catching centre forward in Marie-Antoinette Katoto, another candidate for the golden boot who just needs her teammates to feed her the ball.
Despite their talent on the pitch, there have been plenty of public spats between coach Corinne Diacre and her players, and, combined with France's inability to get over mental hurdles at tournaments, their price of 5/1 seems too short.
We're really running through the prolific goalscorers now, jumping from Katoto to VIVIANNE MIEDEMA, who still managed to score 10 goals at the Tokyo Olympics despite the team falling apart around her.
A team in transition under new coach Mark Parsons, it has yet to come together for the Dutch on the pitch and their performances have not made for easy viewing as the players have struggled with the new style.
Again, not a nation I would be in a hurry to back but Miedema is likely to have another good tournament goalscoring-wise, and she looks an appealing price at 10/1 to win the GOLDEN BOOT.
Miedema posted an impressive xG/95 figure of 0.69 during the domestic season, and will likely carry that form into the Euros with her country.
After Barcelona put Chelsea fully on their backs in the 2021 Champions League final, tongues began to wag about the Spanish national team, but here is where I hammer home the simple point that Barcelona are not Spain and Spain are not Barcelona.
Heading into their third tournament under Jorge Vilda, La Roja have yet to win a knockout match at any major tournament and worse still, have repeatedly looked disjointed and timid during Euros and World Cups.
Just as there is the narrative around Spain as a parallel to Barcelona, so too is there around the Catalan captain and most recent Ballon d'Or winner, Alexia Putellas.
The midfielder, on her day, is one of the best in the world, and has consistently impressed for Barcelona for years, yet, if we look back to 2019, when Alexia went to the World Cup off the back of a fine domestic season, she was a ghost of herself, repeatedly going missing.
Maybe this will be the summer that the pieces fall together for Spain and Vilda harmonises the squad but again, I wouldn't start counting any chickens, Spain with similar mental blocks to France at tournaments.
Who will win the Women's Euros?
Although not the favourites with the bookies, a team I like a lot heading into the Euros is SWEDEN.
One of the few consistent performers in women's football across the modern era, the Swedes, ably managed by Peter Gerhardsson, have reached the last four of their last two tournaments, picking up a bronze medal at the 2019 World Cup in France before reaching their second successive Olympic final, claiming back-to-back silvers for their efforts.
The team to beat in Japan last summer, they have only gotten better since their penalty shootout loss to Canada, and have just the right collection of experience, exuberance, tournament nous, and squad depth.
They look the bet at 17/2 each-way, though Sky Bet are offering a boosted 8/1 win-only just for Sporting Life readers should that be your choice of attack.
Having grown into a free-scoring side since Gerhardsson took charge, the goals tend to be shared around although there would be good value in placing a small bet on Arsenal's STINA BLACKSTENIUS as TOP GOALSCORER with her scandalously offered around the 20/1 mark.
Look out for midfield maestro Kosovare Asllani as a potential play of the tournament in a Sweden team fancied go well.
Who are the dark horses?
Now we've got the market leaders and the main selection covered, let's look to find some unexpected value with some underrated nations and players.
Drawn into the 'group of death' with Spain and Germany, most have already dismissed the idea of DENMARK making it to the knockout rounds, yet this is a team that didn't just get to the final in 2017 but have brought through a new generation of talent since then without saying goodbye to enigmatic captain Pernille Harder.
Yes, it will be tricky for Denmark to navigate the group if Germany and/or Spain show up this summer, but there is a clear plan in place for Lars Sondergaard's side and with Harder able to play multiple roles simultaneously, creating as well as scoring, the Red and White shouldn't be written off, and may just be worth chancing to qualify from Group B at a price of 3/1.
A nation wholly forgotten about when they made their World Cup return in 2019 after a two-decade absence, Italy benefited from flying under the radar and were able to go out and have fun in France when reaching the quarter finals.
The squad is a little older now but all have that experience of going deep in a major tournament, with women's football on the rise in Italy thanks to the sweeping professionalisation of Serie A, the squad boasts a wealth of riches and while winning the whole thing might be a stretch, a spot in the last four in well within reach for Milena Bertolini's side, but at the prices Denmark are considered the best value in these markets.
2022 Women's Euros Outright best bets
- 3pts e.w. Sweden to win Women's Euros at 17/2 (Betfair, Paddy Power 1/2 1,2)
- 2pts e.w. Vivianne Miedema to win the Golden Boot at 10/1 (Sky Bet 1/4 1,2,3)
- 1pt e.w. Stina Blackstenius to win the Golden Boot at 20/1 (Sky Bet 1/4 1,2,3)
- 1pt Denmark to qualify from Group B at 7/2 (Sky Bet)
- 1pt Lauren Hemp to win Player of the Tournament at 20/1 (Sky Bet)
Odds correct 1200 BST (30/06/22)