Infogol is a supercomputer. Through calculated team ratings based on underlying performances over the past four years, with Women's Euros qualifying matches weighted more heavily, the Infogol model is able to predict the most likely outcome of the Euro 2022.
The bad news is England aren't favoured to lift the trophy on home soil. The good news is they're second favourites.
Who will win the Women's Euros?
Bookies favourites Spain are also the favourites of the Infogol model.
The Spaniards have a 24.6% chance of reigning supreme, followed by the Lionesses, France and Sweden.
The Netherlands and Germany are the only other teams to be given a chance in double figures by the model.
Norway are cut adrift of the six most likely winners, and the nine teams after them all have a less than 1% chance of lifting the trophy, while five of those (Northern Ireland, Finland, Portugal, Belgium and Iceland) have a less than 0.1% chance of going all the way.
Women's Euros winner odds (via Sky Bet)
- 7/2 - Spain
- 4/1 - England
- 5/1 - France
- 6/1 - Netherlands
- 7/1 - Germany, Sweden
- 14/1 - Norway
- 28/1 - Denmark, Italy
Odds correct at 1200 (28/06/22)
In terms of identifying value for a bet, the Infogol model thinks the market leaders should be shorter than the current 7/2, pricing them at nearly 3/1.
England are priced accurately at a general 9/2, while France and Netherlands are a tad short. Sweden are of interest given the model makes them fourth favourites to win the whole thing yet they are priced as the sixth best team by the market.
A best price of 17/2 about the Swedes represents value, as does the general 7/1 with Infogol making them around the 13/2 mark.
How do the groups look?
Group A
Austria, England, Northern Ireland and Norway make up Group A, and the Lionesses - with the help of home field advantage - are strongly fancied to top the group.
Infogol calculates they have a 72.8% chance of doing so, and a 95.0% chance of progressing to the knockout rounds.
Norway are second favourites to top the pool and advance, with it extremely likely that the winner of the match day two meeting between the Scandinavian's and England will qualify as group winners.
Austria are expected to be more competitive than Northern Ireland, who are rated as the worst team at the competition according to Infogol.
This group appears to have been priced correctly by the bookmakers.
Group B
Infogol's tournament favourites Spain are unsurprisingly fancied to win their group (60.9%) and qualify (92.0%), but the Infogol model isn't as strong on their chances of doing so compared to the other pre-tournament favourites England and France, mainly because of a tougher draw.
The Spaniards, who are Infogol's top rated team heading into the competition, were drawn alongside Germany in Group B, who are rank as the fourth best team at the Euros.
Germany have a 32.8% chance of topping the group and a 78.6% chance of advancing to the knockout rounds, with it likely that Denmark and Finland struggle to make an impact.
Interestingly, the bookmakers have Spain and Germany more closely matched than the model, meaning a price of 8/11 with Sky Bet for the Spaniards to win Group B is a value bet - the model makes it 4/6.
Group C
Group C is the toughest to call from a top spot perspective, with little between the Netherlands and Sweden.
Infogol gives the nod to the Dutch, making them 49.6% favourites to win the group, though Sweden aren't far behind.
Those two are expected to progress, but the head-to-head clash in matchday one will likely decide who goes through as group winners.
Switzerland are ranked as the third best team in the group, with Portugal outsiders.
This time, the model has Sweden and Netherlands ranked more closely than the market does, meaning the value lies in backing the Swedes to win Group C at a best price of 7/5, with the model making them a 5/4 shot.
Group D
France are the team the Infogol model is the most confident about winning and qualifying from their group, giving the French a 78.2% of topping Group D.
Italy are fancied to advance alongside the French, but this group is the most competitive outside the favourite.
Belgium and Iceland are ranked third and fourth respectively, but the three teams likely to battle it out for second spot all have a 14% chance or greater of advancing.
You can get 3/10 (1.30 in decimal odds) about France winning the group, which would represent a small amount of value according to the model, which has them at decimal odds of 1.28.
4/6 is available for Italy to qualify, and that represents a better value selection given Infogol makes them a 1/2 shot.
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