Joe Rindl has the best bets and preview as Sweden take on Ukraine in the round of 16 at the Euros and he thinks the Swedes are under-priced.
Euro 2020 betting tips: Sweden v Ukraine
2pts Sweden to win in 90 minutes 31/21 (SBK)
1pt Sweden to win in 90 minutes and Under 2.5 Goals at 7/2 (General)
It may be playing second fiddle to Tuesday’s other round of 16 tie with England taking on Germany, but Sweden’s match-up with Ukraine has plenty going for it in the markets.
Hampden Park hosts two sides who ultimately will have been very happy to have drawn their opponents. Ukraine have a chance of reaching the final eight for the first time at a major championship.
Sweden will be licking their lips at an opportunity to make the quarters after exiting at the groups in their last three Euro campaigns.
Kick-off time: 20:00 BST, Tuesday
TV Channel: BBC One
Venue: Hampden Park - Glasgow, Scotland
Sweden 7/5 | Draw 21/10 | Ukraine 21/10
Let’s start with Group C’s third-placed finishers Ukraine. In their opener Andriy Shevchenko’s side were deflated by a late Denzel Dumfries goal in a 3-2 loss to the Netherlands. They followed it up with a routine 2-1 win over North Macedonia, before completing the groups against Austria where they had just one attempt on target in a 1-0 defeat.
They may seem like an enigma, but Infogol’s expected goals model shows Ukraine’s true colours. In their loss to Austria they created an xG of just 0.36 while conceding 1.94 in return. In their thriller with the Dutch they lost the xG battle 2.07 to 0.70.
Ukraine were the seeded side for their group. So far they’ve been underwhelming. Their one win over minnows North Macedonia has them in the second round as the final third-placed team.
Ukraine should really have been drawn against Spain. The two-time winners bossed Group E with a total xG of 9.70. Somehow they finished with just five points.
Sweden drew with Spain in their opener and ended up being table-toppers with back-to-back wins in their final two group games. It involved keeping a clean sheet in a gritty 1-0 win over Slovakia, before holding off a Robert Lewandowski-inspired Poland in a 3-2 epic.
While Ukraine limped over the finish line, the Scandinavians soared.
Sweden are 7/5 favourites at most bookies, a price which I’d say is far too long. The casual observer may feel these two sides are evenly matched. The stats suggest otherwise.
The Swedes, fresh from racking up the most points in a Euros group stage in their history, haven’t lost a game in 2021, winning seven and drawing one.
Ukraine have won only three from nine this year, while they’ve also lost seven of their last eight games at European Championships.
I’m more than happy to take SBK’s price of SWEDEN TO WIN IN 90 MINUTES at 31/21.
And for a slightly longer shot, I’m backing SWEDEN TO WIN IN 90 MINUTES AND UNDER 2.5 goals at 7/2 (general). Four of Sweden’s and three of Ukraine's last six international matches have witnessed fewer than three goals scored.
Expect Janne Andersson’s men to edge their way into the quarters and face the winners of England v Germany.
Sweden v Ukraine best bets and score prediction
- 2pts Sweden to win in 90 minutes at 31/21 (SBK)
- 1pt Sweden to win and Under 2.5 Goals in 90 minutes at 7/2 (General)
Score prediction: Sweden 2-0 Ukraine (Sky Bet odds: 9/1)
Odds correct 2010 BST (25/06/21)
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