Brentford v Newcastle tips: Premier League best bets and preview
Liam Kelly previews Newcastle's trip to face Brentford, expecting the Bees to make the most of home advantage in a vital game at the bottom of the Premier League.
Football betting tips: Premier League
1.5pts Brentford to win at 6/4 (General)
A meeting between two teams moving ever closer to each other in the Premier League table.
Brentford's slide toward trouble has been stark, gaining just one point from a possible 21 in their last seven league games, while Newcastle are unbeaten in six, jumping out of the relegation zone as a result.
Eddie Howe's side are now only two points behind their opponents with two games in hand, looking a different proposition following a busy January transfer window.
Kick-off time: 15:00 GMT, Saturday
Brentford 29/20 | Draw 9/4 | Newcastle 19/10
Subsequently, it's understandable that the difference in match odds between the two is more condensed than they would have been in 2021, recent form obviously playing a huge part.
There is, however, an argument that the prices have gone too far in that direction.
Jake Pearson's weekly Beat the Market column touches on contrarian betting when discussing the value available in this match, and I'm happy to follow him in on the idea that Brentford are the best bet to win this match.
After all, this is the shortest price that Newcastle have been to win away from home all season long. Additionally, Brentford post excellent underlying numbers when playing at home, almost a polar opposite to their away form.
As featured in my article this week looking at Brentford's survival chances, they hold the sixth-best expected goal difference (+ 7.9 xGD) in the league when filtering for home games.
Away from home, Thomas Frank's side post numbers worthy of a relegation candidate (-12.1 xGD). The fact they face Newcastle at the Brentford Community Stadium is an important factor here.
Their problem has been turning that relative dominance into points, scoring only 14 goals from 21.5 xG at home. I'm backing that to change with a BRENTFORD WIN at a general 6/4.
Newcastle's improvement clearly admirable, but with Allan Saint-Maximin and Kieran Trippier, perhaps their two best players, the upturn in form is less likely to continue.
A home win is undoubtedly the value play.
Brentford v Newcastle best bets and score prediction
- 1.5pts Brentford to win at 6/4 (General)
Score prediction: Brentford 2-1 Newcastle (Sky Bet odds: 8/1)
Odds correct at 1800 GMT (24/02/22)
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