Are Brentford sliding towards immediate relegation?
After beginning 2022 with a 2-1 win over Aston Villa, Brentford have slipped towards trouble in their maiden Premier League campaign.
In gaining just one point from a possible 21 in their last seven matches, the Bees have dropped to 14th place following an excellent start to the season, causing Brentford's price for relegation to tumble from 25/1 to 3/1 in places in the time since their last league win.
Given Thomas Frank's side sit 10th on Infogol's expected table, and are forecasted to finish the 2021/22 term in a comfortable 15th spot by the same model, is it too early to worry about their prospects of falling back to the second-tier?
Bare form would tell you it is not, but Brentford's underlying numbers offer hope that recent struggles can be ended swiftly, with immediate upcoming fixtures vitally important in determining their safety.
Bees stung by schedule strength
Looking back at their current barren spell, Brentford have admittedly been a little unfortunate to come away with almost nothing despite a tough run of fixtures.
Defeats at the hands of Liverpool, Manchester United, Manchester City and Arsenal are understandable — all four forecasted by Infogol to finish in the top five this season — while losses to in-form teams such as Southampton and Wolves can be digested.
Even their sole point against Crystal Palace could easily have been three, missing a trio of 'big chances' in the 0-0 home draw less than a fortnight ago (xG: BRE 1.80 - 0.53 CRY).
Indeed, Frank's side deserved more against both Manchester United and Wolves, too, beaten 3-1 and 2-1 respectively despite creating the better scoring opportunities in the matches at the Brentford Community Stadium.
Therein lies an issue. From a data perspective, Brentford are an excellent team when playing host, holding the sixth-best expected goal difference (+ 7.9 xGD) in the league when filtering for home games.
Away from home, the Bees post numbers worthy of a relegation candidate (-12.1 xGD). Only Burnley and Newcastle are lower than Brentford in that metric.
When considering Brentford's performances on the road, they simply cannot afford to squander the solid possibility of points with recent home displays. Hence the recent troubles.
Overall, Brentford have scored just 14 goals from the 21.5 expected goals (xG) manufactured as hosts.
While it might not be a problem at home, chance creation is most certainly a concern as travellers, averaging a meagre 0.94 xGF per game across their 13 away fixtures this term.
Granted, first-choice forwards Ivan Toney and Bryan Mbuemo have both missed time, but Brentford haven't suffered in the same manner at their own ground for that to be the definitive difference — the disparity between home and away data is too big.
Perhaps the addition of Christian Eriksen will be far more than a feelgood factor. After all, the Dane has impressed behind closed doors.
⚽ @ChrisEriksen8 set up both goals as we drew 2-2 with @RangersFC this afternoon
— Brentford FC (@BrentfordFC) February 21, 2022
📄 https://t.co/bG0ztJsC40#BrentfordFC pic.twitter.com/u7M3Y7uSXF
Will Brentford be relegated?
If we can be relatively confident that Brentford will perform well as hosts, surely they should be thankful that two of their next three matches against fellow candidates for the drop are at home.
Games against Newcastle and Burnley at the Brentford Community Stadium sandwich a trip to Norwich. The match-up with a struggling Leicester side is also an opportunity for points.
That is a welcome upcoming schedule following a tough run of fixtures for the Bees. Only Southampton have an easier set of four opponents based on Infogol's forecasted final finishing position.
It does, of course, make this period of paramount importance for Brentford.
Any continuation of a failure to take advantage of accomplished home performances will see Frank's side dragged deeper into a relegation battle that is heating up, while away displays need to improve.
Starting with Newcastle on Saturday, Brentford's immediate fixtures will go some way to deciding their Premier League fate — relegation scare or sure survival.
