Michael van Gerwen, Peter Wright and Gerwyn Price head the betting for the World Matchplay

World Matchplay: Free darts betting tips, preview and predictions for the TV major featuring Michael van Gerwen, Peter Wright and Gary Anderson

By Chris Hammer

Darts

Sun July 19, 2020 · 4y ago

Our darts expert Chris Hammer is hoping to hit the bullseye with his tips for the World Matchplay, which gets under way in Milton Keynes this weekend.

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World Matchplay tournament draw & schedule
Chris Hammer's player-by-player guide

Recommended Bets: World Matchplay Darts

1pt e.w Michael Smith to win the World Matchplay at 25/1 (1/2 1, 2)
1pt e.w. Krzysztof Ratajski to win the World Matchplay at 40/1 (1/2 1, 2)
0.5pts e.w Daryl Gurney to win the World Matchplay at 40/1 (1/2, 1, 2)
1pt Ratajski to win the second quarter at 9/2
1pt Daryl Gurney to win the third quarter at 5/1
1pt Ian White to win the fourth quarter at 7/1
Click here for all of Sky Bet's World Matchplay odds

When darts was last live on TV, Michael van Gerwen and Gerwyn Price served up a Premier League treat that left us all thirsty for more at a time when a long break was sadly inevitable.

That came just four days after their blockbusting rivalry reached another peak in a thrilling climax to the UK Open, which MVG won 11-9 on a night in which he also hit a semi-final nine-darter against Daryl Gurney.

Four desperately long months have passed since then and while the online darts scene did admirably help fill a little of the void left by postponed Premier League nights as well as the streamed European Tour and Players Championship events, nothing can beat a big major on the box.

Almost 130 days later, it couldn't come back with much more of a bang than with the sport's second biggest major, even if the magic is unquestionably lessened by it not taking place at the iconic Winter Gardens with its unique atmosphere. Let's waste no more time dwelling on that, however, because the PDC deserve tremendous credit getting this event staged at all - as well as last week's Summer Series at the Marshall Arena - while the efforts being put into piping in crowd noise and constructing fan walls etc will certainly prevent it from being as sterile and eerie as the 2018 UK Open.

Obviously those circumstances were completely different, with a freak winter storm coming out of nowhere in the days leading up to the event, but there are still a few observations worth noting considering it remains the only other major in darts history played behind closed doors.

If we ignore the fact some players were throwing in woolly hats, the fact there weren't thousands of fans to freeze in front of did, by all accounts, help level the playing field slightly, especially for those lower down the rankings without the pedigree of the best stage performers.

David Pallett, Robert Owen, Steve West, Corey Cadby and John Part, who poetically likened the experience to playing darts in The Shining, were five surprise quarter-finalists and they were joined by an improving Gerwyn Price, Rob Cross and eventual champion Gary Anderson to complete the final eight.

Interestingly, Ian White, who many feel could be in for a major breakthrough this week in light of this setting, suffered a shock defeat to Owen in round four just when a brilliant opportunity to end his wait for a TV title was emerging before his eyes.

Of course, the whole 128-player UK Open format over one weekend is more conducive to surprises at the best of times, but this World Matchplay will take some of the usual advantages and edges away from the top stars who are unflappable and charged by the loud crowds and razzmatazz that goes with a televised major, while anyone with mental blocks, bad memories and poor records at the Winter Gardens aren't going to be saddled with any those demons this time.

This shouldn't be interpreted as me saying the likes of Michael van Gerwen, Peter Wright and Gerwyn Price will be adversely affected in terms of performance; after all, you only need to look at the astonishing stats, titles and prize money they weigh in with during the Players Championship events to see that would be a nonsense claim. And in the case of Price, he should be an even greater threat now that he can revel in the TV limelight without the distractions of the annoying heckling.

But, as we were reminded during the five-day Summer Series, many of the Tour Card holders - let alone the 32 in this field - are capable of mind-boggling numbers and achieving 'shock' results in the less raucous surroundings. Without the usual intimidation factor in force, I think there'll be more players showcasing to their best to a TV audience, rather than it being skewed towards those with major-winning CVs.

So now I'll run through my picks to 'win' each quarter of the draw before revealing my eventual finalists and winner, but if you want to find out more about all 32 hopefuls in the field, then click here for my separate player-by-player World Matchplay guide complete with individual verdicts.

First Quarter

Prediction: Gary Anderson to win the quarter

(1) Michael van Gerwen v Brendan Dolan
(16) Simon Whitlock v Ryan Joyce
(8) Gary Anderson v Justin Pipe
(9) James Wade v Keegan Brown

Sky Bet Odds to win quarter: MVG 4/9, Anderson 10/3, Wade 17/2, Whitlock 22/1, Joyce 33/1, Dolan 80/1, Pipe 80/1, Brown 80/1

Obviously Michael van Gerwen is a very fair odds-on favourite in this section having adapted superbly to his new darts in double quick-time over the early part of the season before blasting out of the blocks at the Summer Series with two titles and the second highest overall average of 100.39. However, early exits on the other three days against Devon Petersen, Joe Murnan and Maik Kuivenhoven will give the rest of the field hope.

It's perhaps worth pointing out - thanks to Carl Fletcher's stellar stats review of the Summer Series - that his highest match average of 107.29 was bettered by 13 other players in this field during the week, so don't be too surprised if he his caught cold along the way.

I doubt that will happen against Brendan Dolan or either of his potential second-round opponents but I expect a rough ride in the quarter-finals, where a titanic showdown with Gary Anderson is on the cards.

Granted, the Flying Scotsman didn't perform anywhere near as well as he can during the Summer Series and many will feel James Wade represents value to be MVG's last-eight challenger having won a title as well as 19 matches across the week - a tally only bettered by Peter Wright's 23.

However, the 2018 champion arrives with the extra incentive of prize money to defend from two years ago and we all know how he approaches the big majors differently to the floor, especially when it's the 'turn up and peak for one game' format. An out of sorts Justin Pipe shouldn't pose too many problems and historically Anderson holds a superior head-to-head record over Wade.

The aforementioned UK Open triumph behind closed doors and his run to the PDC Home Tour despite being a self confessed technophobe shows Anderson is a far more versatile proposition than many give him credit for and he could well thrive in this environment.

Click on the image for profiles and verdicts for all 32 players competing at the World Matchplay

Second Quarter

Prediction: Ratajski to win the quarter

(4) Rob Cross v Gabriel Clemens
(13) Krzysztof Ratajski v Jermaine Wattimena
(5) Michael Smith v Jonny Clayton
(12) Mensur Suljovic v Jamie Hughes

Sky Bet Odds to win quarter: Smith 3/1, Cross 7/2, Ratajski 4/1, Suljovic 6/1, Clemens 15/2, Clayton 8/1, Hughes 12/1, Wattimena 14/1

Essentially I believe the finalist from the top half of the draw will be Michael Smith or Krzysztof Ratajski and considering the size of their title prices of 25/1 and 40/1 respectively, I'm backing them both each-way, with the latter my value pick for the quarter.

In regards to Bully Boy, he's defied the global 'lockdown body' trend by shedding well over two stone since we last saw him on the televised stage and he looks all the better for it as he strives to improve his lifestyle and his marketability.

During an interview with Sporting Life Darts in which he went into detail about his methods and motivations behind his weight loss, Smith was quick to point out how it won't affect his game and balance at the oche like it seemingly did to Rob Cross during the early parts of 2020, because he's been practicing hard all the way through the process.

Sure, he struggled to perform to his best at the Summer Series, managing just two 100+ averages in his 15 matches and failing to go beyond the quarter-finals in any of the five tournaments.

However, in the second part of the pre-Summer Series interview, Smith explained some interesting reasons why he wasn't necessarily expecting to end his title drought dating back to 2018 and anyone who read them won't really have been surprised by how it turned out for him.

The St Helens man cited how being assigned specific tables dependant on which board he was drawn on - due to the new regulations of social distancing - instead of being able to sit with his usual close allies such as Ian White, Gary Anderson and James Wade could be a mental challenge, especially as they relax his mood and take his mind off the heat of the battle. It may sound trivial on the surface, but we're all human with our own complexities and Smith might just take more time than others to adapt to Players Championship settings.

A major tournament like this is obviously completely different from all that anyway - with or without a crowd - and this is where he comes into his own having reached five televised finals since the start of 2018, including the World Championship, World Matchplay and this year's Masters in Milton Keynes, as well as three semi-finals. Not only does he have more natural talent than most, but he has this ability of being able to turn up at the big venues and peak for one big match in a day.

A maiden PDC major crown may now be nearer than ever.

The same could be said of the rapidly rising Polish Eagle, who is such a big price at 40/1 when you bare in mind the consistency of his ruthless performances, title tally and the rave reviews he receives among the darting hardcore who closely follow tournaments away from the TV cameras.

As I wrote in my player-by-player guide, the 2017 BDO World Master has won eight PDC events - all of which are ranking - since the start of 2018 and that's only bettered by Michael van Gerwen (35, including 10 non-ranking), Peter Wright (11, including three non-ranking) and Gerwyn Price (9) in that time.

Gary Anderson and James Wade also have eight but both of their tallies include the kind of lucrative non-raking events that Ratajski hasn't been involved in yet. This is all made even more impressive by the fact Ratajski didn't even have a tour card in 2018 and only competed in 10 PDC events, winning three of them!

His eighth title came in a last-leg decider against Ian White back in February while the only one of his haul that occurred on a stage was in front of a relatively small crowd at the the Gibraltar Darts Open last September.

Personally I think too much is made by his lack of crowd form because it's not as if he's had that many chances to really get used to the big PDC atmospheres. Last December I was privileged to watch him from close to the Ally Pally stage as he competed with plenty of passion in a real humdinger against Nathan Aspinall, who just did enough to pip him, and I'd probably be backing him even if this major was at a packed Winter Gardens.

Nevertheless the lack of a crowd won't be a problem for Ratajski, who looked sharp at the Summer Series with 14 victories overall and six averages of over 100, which only five others can say they bettered.

This really could be his moment to shine in the spotlight and I'm sure my thoughts are echoed by many others.

Click on the image to find out which players were statistically the best performers during the Summer Series

Third Quarter

Prediction: Daryl Gurney to win the quarter

(2) Peter Wright v Jose De Sousa
(15) Glen Durrant v Jeffrey de Zwaan
(7) Daryl Gurney v Ricky Evans
(10) Dave Chisnall v Vincent van der Voort

Sky Bet Odds to win quarter: Wright 11/8, Durrant 4/1, Chisnall 9/2, Gurney 9/2, De Sousa 12/1, De Zwaan 18/1, Evans 40/1, Van der Voort 40/1

Peter Wright would probably have been odds-on to win this quarter had he not been handed the worst possible first-round draw against Jose De Sousa.

But as Paul Nicholson mentioned in his Sporting Life preview, the lethal Portuguese star will be far from happy to be paired with the world champion, who returns to the venue where he won the season-opening Masters and also topped the Summer Series Order of Merit thanks to claiming his third title of the season against Gerwyn Price on Sunday.

Not only did he win more matches (23) and more legs (158) than anyone but he also recorded the joint most 100+ averages with 11, produced a record 20 ton plus checkouts along the way and was throwing 0.40 180s per leg - the best ratio of all. His decision to start wearing glasses is clearly paying off.

Many will fancy De Sousa, who has won two titles since earning his tour card at the start of 2019, to provide a real stiff test for Snakebite having also shown sizzling Summer Series form with 11 ton plus averages himself.

Although Glen Durrant and Dave Chisnall both have their merits in this quarter - which I reflect upon in the player-by-player guide - I do fancy Daryl Gurney at a tempting 9/2.

There were question marks hanging over the Northern Irishman after a disappointing start to the Premier League season prior to lockdown and then he didn't take part in the PDC Home Tour due to a mixture of WiFi and family reasons as well as his basic practice set up that he didn't think was up to the required spec! In a fascinating interview with Sky Sports Darts, he also revealed he'd spent most of his time being a hands-on father with his two-year-old son due to his wife's role as a key social worker, and the whole experience put everything into perspective.

Considering how he's previously admitted to being a negative thinker - which is often made obvious by his body language on stage - this could have a bigger impact on Gurney's career than you'd first think.

He returned to his ramshackle bedroom practice board just five weeks ago without an online dart thrown to his name, yet was one of the most consistently impressive performers last week, winning 14 matches, averaging over 100 six times and boasting an overall mark of 97.44 which was seventh best.

As he said in that interview: "I go under the radar in everything I enter until I get to the final and am lifting the trophy at the end, but I'd rather be the underdog. Whenever I am playing the likes of Michael or Gary I always look up to them, because they are the pinnacle of the PDC. I am always the underdog when I play those types of players and I thrive on that."

That certainly helped him against MVG in the Players Championship Finals back in 2018 and also in last year's titanic World Matchplay quarter-final with Peter Wright, which is widely regarded as the performance of 2019.

SuperChin might just have to do that again, of course, but with his new frame of mind, I'm prepared to advise a small stake on him to go one or two steps further than 12 months ago and wipe that semi-final heartache from his mind for good.

Click on the image to read Paul Nicholson's preview of the World Matchplay

Fourth Quarter

Prediction: Ian White to win the quarter

(3) Gerwyn Price v Danny Noppert
(14) Adrian Lewis v Steve Beaton
(6) Nathan Aspinall v Dimitri Van den Bergh
(11) Ian White v Joe Cullen

Sky Bet Odds to win quarter: Price 11/8, Aspinall 9/4, White 13/2, Lewis 12/1, Cullen 14/1, Noppert 22/1, Van Den Bergh 22/1, Beaton 28/1

The bookies are struggling to decide which is a more likely final - MVG v Price or MVG v Wright. Both possibilities can be backed at 4/1 and it's hard to argue based on how this star trio continue to dominate the debate about who is the most dominant force in the game right now.

Going purely off Summer Series, the two-time Grand Slam of Darts king has a little catching up to do on the world champion and the world number one, but he did begin to show encouraging signs after a stuttering start.

Price ended the week with the highest match average of 115.62 - which brought up his overall one above Wright to 99.69 from 17 matches - but it was perhaps more impressive to see how he defied Devon Petersen's 113 in Sunday's thrilling semi-final.

It probably burnt him out ahead of the title decider with Wright but he'll be ready to fire on all cylinders again when he returns to the Marshall Arena.

As mentioned at the top of this article, Price's floor game away from the pantomime booing is sensational and relentless, so the lack of crowd will be helpful, if anything, as he chases the biggest title of his blossoming career.

I can't see him struggling to reach the quarter-finals but at that point he's most likely going to come up against either Nathan Aspinall or Ian White.

Either possible quarter-final will make quite some viewing, with the latter two being among the most frequent title holders outside of the big three over the past couple of years.

In my player-by-player guide, I do say Price should reach at least the semis, but in this betting preview I'm seeking value and for that reason the glistening Diamond attracts my eye.

Undoubtedly one of the best active players never to have won a major - and definitely the best never to have reached a major final - the 49-year-old Stoke thrower is still seemingly getting better with age and last year's run to the last four of the Players Championship Finals was a real breakthrough for him.

It was his first televised semi-final, and even though he lost just 11-8 to van Gerwen, his run proved he could deliver in an event of this magnitude and shows continued progression from when he won back-to-back European Tour events in front of crowds last year against Peter Wright and MVG in last-leg deciders.

That said, the lack of a crowd will still be of some relief - if he thinks it's a factor as much as everyone else thinks - and allow him to find the A game that helped him pick up a 10th career title - and sixth since the start of 2018 - just before lockdown.

Predicted Semi-Finals

Gary Anderson v Ratajski/Smith
Daryl Gurney v Ian White

If you like the above thinking then the name the finalist markets offer some ridiculous prices. Ratajski v Gurney is 150/1, Ratajski v White is 250/1 while Smith against those opponents are 140/1 and 150/1 respectively. Indeed, it would be quite ironic if Smith and White, who are such close friends, end up facing each other for their first major title.

Posted at 2230 BST on 16/07/20

Click for World Matchplay Guide including daily schedule, results & TV information

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