World Matchplay: Paul Nicholson's first-round analysis and predictions for the second biggest major in darts

• Follow Paul @TheAsset180 Nicholson on Twitter
• World Matchplay: Player-by-player guide
• World Matchplay betting preview & tips
• Carl Fletcher's vital statistics

The World Matchplay is almost upon on, as 32 players return to the Marshall Arena in Milton Keynes for the second biggest major in darts... without fans of course.

Will we see a repeat of the World Championship final between Michael van Gerwen and Peter Wright a week on Sunday? Could Gerwyn Price muscle his way into the reckoning once again? Can Gary Anderson repeat his heroics of 2018? Has defending champion Rob Cross been unfairly dismissed by the bookies? Who are the dark horses?

In this week's column, major winner and commentator Paul Nicholson takes you through the draw that he himself pulled out of the hat after the Summer Series concluded on Sunday, with thoughts on every player and first-round match, while he also predicts who will ultimately be walking off with the Phil Taylor Trophy.

• (1) Michael van Gerwen v Brendan Dolan

I can’t see Brendan winning this match but he can cause a few minor problems along the way if he can play to his best. The gap between the pair during the Summer Series was too great for me to give any winning case for Brendan while Michael will be as hungry as ever to lay down a marker.

The bad news for the whole field, especially Brendan, is that Michael didn’t win the Summer Series after Peter Wright pipped him to the post on the final day. If you think that means nothing to Michael, then think again. He’ll use that as motivation and use Brendan as the canvas to paint on like he did to Jamie Caven a few years ago.

• (16) Simon Whitlock v Ryan Joyce

Simon Whitlock will think this first-round draw could have been worse because although Ryan Joyce won a Summer Series event to qualify, he wasn’t lighting it up every day. Simon actually played much better than people are giving him credit for and was only just pipped in some of the games he played and if he brushes up a little, then I think he’ll win this one. A lot of people think Ryan is going to roll him but I don’t see it like that. When doubters circle, this is where Simon usually responds, and he won’t like the thought of dropping out of the world’s top 16.

Joyce’s maiden title on the second day of the Summer Series won him a debut spot at the World Matchplay and it’s potentially career-changing because of the other doors it could open. But his very relaxed demeanour means he doesn’t get carried away about anything and doesn’t seem to get nervous. He just turns up, does his thing and plays well. He has a reputation of someone who doesn’t look like he cares and if you’ve not watched him much on TV before, you’ll soon see why. But I assure you he does deep down.

• (8) Gary Anderson v Justin Pipe

Gary is highly motivated for this event because he’s trying to cover the winnings from when he won the title two years ago. There were times during the Summer Series where he raised his levels to sky high standards, even if he wasn’t that consistent. There’s no way you can’t back him in this one. Not only is he a better player in greater form, but Justin isn’t even 100%. He had a bad arm with possible tendinitis and because he thought he was pretty much safe in terms of World Matchplay qualification, he missed the last two days of the Summer Series. That turned out to be a prudent decision because he’s worked really hard to be here but if Justin fails his fitness test to compete then Ryan Searle will take his place.

• (9) James Wade v Keegan Brown

James looked very sharp at the Summer Series, even on the days where he didn’t win one of the five available titles. There was just a couple of games when he let things slip but he is a human being. If he can see off Keegan Brown, like I expect, then a second-round meeting with Gary Anderson will be spicy. James is playing better than Keegan, who has been working a lot for the NHS during lockdown, and the question is whether he’s been able to practice enough to do a number on the Machine like he did at the worlds a couple of years ago.

First Quarter-Final Prediction: MVG v Gary Anderson

Everyone wants to see this match-up, which is the most likely outcome, but if it’s James Wade that comes through rather than Anderson, then it should still be a pretty special quarter-final.

• (4) Rob Cross v Gabriel Clemens

This is why I love the World Matchplay. Rob Cross hit a nine-darter at the Summer Series and generally looked a lot sharper and fitter than he did before lockdown. The darts he threw were as good as I’ve seen from him in quite some time and that’s bad news for Gabriel Clemens, who is a very dangerous animal himself. I don’t think there’s much pressure on him either, even as the defending champion. I was around the players a lot at the Summer Series and didn’t sense pressure coming from him – certainly not like at other points in his career, most specifically the World Championship when he had to defend all the winnings from two years earlier.

This is Gabriel's debut in the event and, like Ian White, does tend to perform better on the floor with no fans and doesn’t have a great European Tour record. So the behind closed doors nature of this major is a bit of an equaliser. But I think Rob will perform well and go through.

• (13) Krzysztof Ratajski v Jermaine Wattimena

Jermaine Wattimena had some good games during the Summer Series but Krzysztof Ratajski is looking more dangerous and is almost the finished article. He’s only going one way in the rankings and I can’t really see any other result than for him to win.

Ratajski’s stage performance in Gibraltar, where the crowd was minimal compared to most other European Tour events, were phenomenal so maybe this ‘quieter’ setting will suit him more than others. When he gets going, he’s borderline unplayable.

• (5) Michael Smith v Jonny Clayton

This really could be closer than many expect and it's a coin flip for me. Throughout 2020 - before, during and after lockdown - Jonny has played some great stuff and is really pinpoint on that treble 20 at the moment. Jonny is also one of the players who'll like the fact it's not at the Winter Gardens considering his Blackpool record.

This could have been a much kinder draw for Michael, who didn't show great form at the Summer Series. He had got his excuses in early for why he wasn't expecting to perform there, such as the new regulations and social distancing, but players at this level have to be adaptable. You have to play for the money and the title no matter where it is and what the situation is.

• (12) Mensur Suljovic v Jamie Hughes

I commentated on a couple of Mensur Suljovic's games during the Summer Series and he looked pretty good. His grip was relaxed and he was hitting a lot of 180s - more than he usually does. This doesn't bode well for Jamie Hughes. We didn't see any of him during the Home Tour because he's quite a private person and online darts just wasn't his bag, but he'll have been preparing very hard for this tournament, especially because of the amount of money he's defending.

Obviously, Jamie deserves his place at the World Matchplay for the second year in a row because he's continued to climb up that Order of Merit but I'm not sure he's in the same kind of form as Mensur at this point in time. He'll need to barrage that 180 counter like he was doing 12 months ago and up his averages around four or five points, otherwise I fancy Mensur.

Second Quarter-Final Prediction: Krzysztof Ratajski v Mensur Suljovic

I'd really like to this quarter-final because of the story behind it. Two guys coming from soft tip darts in Central Europe, who now make their living in steel tip. It's further proof that darts isn't about coming through the pubs and clubs in the United Kingdom anymore. You have people all around the world who work hard on the soft tip board before eventually finding their way here at the highest level.

• (2) Peter Wright v Jose De Sousa

Jose De Sousa was the worst possible draw for anyone and all you have to do is look at the stats he was posting in the Summer Series as more proof that he is dangerous. Is he a mathematical genius with his finishing? Absolutely not! But he still puts in some silly numbers when doing his own thing and will cause Peter Wright problems.

However, after speaking to Peter on Sunday, he's actually genuinely glad he got this draw because it will make him work hard in the week and hit the ground running. If he was desperate to face MVG in the World Championship final - which wasn't an act by the way - then this challenge won't faze him. If he'd got someone like Justin Pipe there's every likelihood that he would have taken the foot off his gas a bit during practice. But he can't now. And this is why I'm going with Peter to win the game. Don't forget, it's nightmare draw for Jose as well! Snakebite won a title, topped the Summer Series Order of Merit and was posting some incredible stats - just like he has all season.

• (15) Glen Durrant v Jeffrey de Zwaan

Glen will come through this one because Jeffrey has issues with his shoulder and that showed during the Summer Series.

Even if he was fully fit, however, I'd still fancy Glen because he's looking trim, sharp and produced some very good stats over the five days. For me, I think this could be one of the most one-sided matches of the first round which is a shame for Jeffrey because he's defending a lot of ranking money from that dream run to the semi-finals two years ago.

• (7) Daryl Gurney v Ricky Evans

I thought Daryl Gurney was great during the Summer Series and watched some of his games very closely, especially his outstanding match with Devon Petersen. If Gurney is doing that off the back of limited practice during lockdown - which he'd admitted during interviews - then what can we expect with those kinds of performances in the bank?

Overall, he looks way more polished than Ricky, who can count himself quite lucky to be in the field after what happened to Devon on that agonisingly final day, and I think he's a big favourite here.

• (10) Dave Chisnall v Vincent van der Voort

A lot of people will be looking deeply at the Summer Series results and not so much on the actual stats and performances behind them. They'll be thinking Chizzy had a good five days, including a final run, and will be hot favourite against Vincent, who didn't.

However, I look at it differently and feel an upset is on the cards. I think Dave's action is starting to break down and the problems with his jerkiness and accentuated follow through is getting worse. I don't want that to happen because I adore him like a brother and would love nothing for than to see him win a major but we're reaching a worrying point with his throw and it could be getting into his head. If he reads this, I don't want him to think I'm being nasty. I really want someone to help him get better and that could put him on the path to winning a major. When he clicks, he's fine, but when he doesn't, there are frailties and cracks in the armour.

This game is all about what Dave does, and if the wrong Chizzy turns up then Vincent is someone who can exploit that.

Third Quarter-Final Prediction: Peter Wright v Daryl Gurney

I'd love to see Glen Durrant go on another deep run but Wright and Gurney are just a little bit higher in their form and this could be another classic just like it was at this stage of the tournament last year. Gurney won it with what I believe was the performance of the year - let alone of the Matchplay - and he'd have to do the same again 12 months on.

• (3) Gerwyn Price v Danny Noppert

Two of the physically fittest guys on tour meet in this match...but they don't like each other! The fact they won't be allowed to shake hands is no problem for either of them. From a darting perspective, Gerwyn looks more threatening but that doesn't mean Danny can't stay with him. He had a steady Summer Series and did even average 109 in one game that he lost.

Gerwyn was also able to withstand someone else's A-Game in the shape of Devon Petersen and that's some ability. He defied Devon's 113 average, which would have been 116 had he sunk that match dart, to reach the final on Sunday and sometimes it's as if he has a protective bubble around him.

The setting will favour him too. Despite being a two-time major winner and superb TV performer, we still haven't seen the best of his incredible floor game up on the stage. We could see it this week without the distractions and the heckles he's used to!

• (14) Adrian Lewis v Steve Beaton

A lot of players wanted to climb their way into the World Matchplay but at the same time wouldn't have wanted to displace Steve Beaton! How could they possibly want to do that?! They'd be a national holiday if he can win this event on his 20th appearance in a row but he will at least fancy his chances of reaching round two.

Adrian Lewis didn't play well over the first four days before pulling out of the fifth tournament. He did look great in terms of the weight loss, but the confidence he was showing on arrival soon went away and you have to wonder why.

• (6) Nathan Aspinall v Dimitri Van den Bergh

It's not a good draw for Dimitri Van den Bergh, who is playing nowhere near as well as he can, and probably felt the pressure during Summer Series to seal his spot here. Now that he's got it, we might see him relax more and play with more freedom.

However, it's been a good year for Nathan so far and it could have been even better had he taken more of his chances in close games. He's playing with the kind of freedom that Dimitri needs to do and even during his semi-final defeat to Dave Chisnall on Thursday, when he wasn't playing so well, he had a smile on his face when Chizzy missed a nine-darter. Nathan has come into his own since all the money pressures in his life disappeared and I expect him to win this game.

• (11) Ian White v Joe Cullen

I think Ian White has a great chance in this tournament and I'd love to see him go deep into the draw. There are many people expecting him to do that because of the behind-closed-doors nature of this major. We know he’s the king of the floor when there's no fans so this could be his moment to shine on TV at last.

During the Summer Series, his first performances of each day were often stunning so if he’s in the right frame of mind for one match per day, then he could be a very big threat. With time ticking on his career, you have to wonder if it’s his chance to shoot forward because the tournament setting plays into his hands more than anyone else.

I saw some darts from Joe Cullen at the Summer Series which were really worrying, especially against Ross Smith on the final day when he lost a lot of legs in a row. If anyone has missed the European Tour, it's Joe because that's where he plays his best and enhances his swagger. Everything points towards Ian in this one and he could swamp Joe like he did 12 months ago.

Fourth Quarter-Final Prediction: Gerwyn Price v Ian White

Whereas I expect smooth progress for Gerwyn Price, I think we're going to get a cracker between Ian White and Nathan Aspinall in round two, which would be so tough to call. Ultimately, I think Ian will edge it but I won't be surprised if I'm wrong.

Predicted Semi-Finals

• Michael van Gerwen v Krzysztof Ratajski
• Peter Wright v Ian White

Sky Bet's to win quarter odds: MVG (4/9), Ratajski (4/1), Wright (11/8) & White (13/2)

Predicted Final

• Peter Wright v Michael van Gerwen

Ultimately cream rises to the top and we're going to have a great final between these great rivals.

MVG v Peter Wright to meet in the final is 4/1 with Sky Bet

Predicted Winner

• Peter Wright. He's trying to check off all the big titles that he hasn't yet won and the amount of 180s he's hitting now just emphasises how comfortable he is with his darts, his game and his glasses.

Peter Wright to win the World Matchplay is 6/1 with Sky Bet

Click for World Matchplay Guide including daily schedule, results & TV information

Related Darts Content

• 2020 World Matchplay draw and schedule
• 2020 World Matchplay: Player-by-player guide
• Carl Fletcher's vital statistics
• World Matchplay betting preview & tips
• Summer Series: Event one report
• Summer Series: Event two report
• Summer Series: Event three report
• Summer Series: Event four report
• Summer Series: Event five report
• 2020 Premier League venues & dates
• 2020 PDC event calendar & results
• 2020 World Darts Championship results
• 2019 PDC event results
• Sky Bet's darts odds

Responsible gambling

We are committed in our support of responsible gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.

Sky Bet's responsible gambling tools are detailed here and if you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline on 0808 8020 133, or visit begambleaware.org.

Further support and information can be found at GamCare and gamblingtherapy.org.