After a 50/1 runner-up on Sunday, tennis man Andy Schooler has picks at 12/1, 20/1 and 40/1 for this week’s Rome Masters event on the ATP Tour.
Tennis betting tips: Rome Masters
1pt win Alex Zverev at 12/1 (Sky Bet)
1pt e.w. Andrey Rublev at 20/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes)
0.5pt e.w. Aslan Karatsev at 40/1 (Sky Bet)
Rome Masters
Internazionali d’Italia
• Rome, Italy (outdoor clay)
The Rome Masters has been dominated by two players over the past 16 years and you won’t be surprised to learn who they are.
Between them, Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic have won the title 14 times in that period. Djokovic is the defending champion having won the title last autumn following the tournament’s calendar change, while Nadal was victorious the last time it was staged in this traditional spring slot in 2019.
The pair understandably occupy the top two positions in the outright betting market but both men have looked vulnerable during the current European claycourt swing.
Why Nadal should be opposed
Nadal did win in Barcelona (from match point down in the final) but he was beaten by Andrey Rublev in Monte Carlo and Alex Zverev in Madrid.
If he misses out on the title here, it will be only the second time in his career that he has headed to Roland Garros in the spring without first winning one of the three preceding Masters 1000 events.
The other occasion was in 2015 when he duly suffered a quarter-final humbling in Paris to Djokovic so he’ll doubtless be keen to find top form this week.
Given he’s won here more often than not (nine titles in 16 visits), Nadal has only claimed two of the last seven trophies on offer in the Italian capital.
Throw in a tough draw which could see him have to beat Jannik Sinner, Casper Ruud and last week’s conqueror Zverev just to reach the semis and he can be taken on at 11/8.
Reasons to take on Djokovic
Djokovic, a 4/1 shot, may be able to take advantage but I wouldn’t bet on that either.
The Serb suffered surprise defeats to Dan Evans in Monte Carlo and Aslan Karatsev in Belgrade before withdrawing from Madrid.
After both defeats he bemoaned his form and frankly doesn’t seem happy with his game right now.
He’ll obviously be aiming to change that this week but a potential opener against Evans is hardly ideal given what occurred last month.
The winner that week in Monte Carlo, Stefanos Tsitsipas, is also in Djokovic’s quarter so I’ll pass on him too.
Who are the best bets?
There are many potential champions here this week with a lot of good tennis having been played in the last few weeks.
When considering which players may come to the fore in Rome, the significant change of conditions from last week in Madrid needs to be taken into account.
The altitude of the Spanish capital, and subsequent quick conditions, is replaced by the near-sea level of Rome where it will play much slower, particularly during the evening sessions.
It is certainly less likely that a huge server such as John Isner or Matteo Berrettini, both of whom went deep in Madrid, will go so well here.
It’s certainly an awkward turnround for those players who were involved at the business end of proceedings in Spain.
The likes of Dominic Thiem, Berrettini, Ruud and ALEX ZVEREV will all have to adapt quickly.
At this stage it’s also worth noting that there are two weeks between the end of Rome and the start of Roland Garros this year (rather than the usual one) so it wouldn’t be a huge surprise for one of those four to opt out here and instead seek entry in next week’s Geneva/Lyon events.
Thiem, who returned to action last week after a lengthy break, certainly showed some good signs in Madrid but he was well beaten in the semis by Zverev and has lost his opening match on his last two visits to Rome.
Zverev looks more an interesting option at 12/1.
The German is one of the two players to have denied Nadal and Djokovic during their Rome duopoly, winning in 2017.
He was also the last player to reach the final of both Madrid and Rome in the same season, finishing runner-up here in 2018 having won the title the week before.
I mentioned his propensity for streaks in my recent Miami preview - six of his 14 titles have been won in back-to-back fashion.
I’m always wary of Zverev given I’ve never really managed to side with him in the right weeks in the past – he let me down when I backed him in Miami – but that’s some decent evidence to suggest he’ll go well here following his run to the Madrid final.
At the price, he looks worth a small play.
Best each-way bet at Rome Masters
As for each-way shouts, I also like the look of ASLAN KARATSEV in Zverev’s half of the draw.
The surprise package of the season finds himself in the weakest quarter, where Daniil Medvedev and Diego Schwartzman are the top seeds.
Medvedev spent much of his time in Madrid moaning about the surface – he’s regularly spoken of his dislike for the clay – while Schwartzman has been out of sorts of late.
Perhaps a venue where he beat Nadal and finished runner-up last season will help spark a revival but there’s been nothing in recent tournaments to suggest he’s ready to go deep again this year.
With his big-hitting game, Karatsev has the tools to take advantage. He’ll be aggressive against every opponent and has the power to punch holes in even the best defence on this surface.
He lost to eventual champion Tsitsipas in Monte Carlo before defeating Djokovic in an epic semi-final in Belgrade.
Despite that three-and-a-half-hour contest, he returned the following day to take Berrettini to a deciding-set tie-break in the final, which he lost.
Last week in Madrid he beat Schwartzman before losing to Alexander Bublik, a defeat I can certainly excuse in conditions which favoured the Kazakh’s big serve.
A relatively-early loss there will have given him a few extra days to prepare for another title assault and with a decent-looking path to the semis, I’m happy to back him at 40/1.
Best bet in other half of the draw
In the top half, I’m prepared to give ANDREY RUBLEV another chance.
The Russian looks a generous price at 20/1 given what we’ve seen from him so far on clay in 2021.
Rublev toppled Nadal in Monte Carlo, where he also beat Ruud and Roberto Bautista Agut en route to the final, before making the last eight in Barcelona (losing to Sinner).
Last week in Madrid he ran into the serve machine that is Isner and lost a match in which he didn’t face a break point and won more than 53% of the points. Essentially he was a tad unfortunate and back in similar conditions to those in which he fared well in Monte Carlo, he is more than capable of contending.
Rublev is in Thiem’s quarter of the draw but has won his last three against the Austrian, including their last meeting on clay in Hamburg in 2019.
He is also 2-0 up on another potentially awkward foe, Cristian Garin. The pair could meet in the last 16.
Rublev has never faced Djokovic and has enjoyed a competitive series against Tsitsipas (trails 4-3 after that loss in Monte Carlo) but I’m a lot more convinced than I was at the start of the season about his ability to compete with and beat the best.
With his game continually improving, Rublev is the final name on the staking plan.
Published 1740 BST (08/05/21)
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