Venus Williams looks overpriced to win the WTA Finals, which start on Sunday, according to our Andy Schooler.
The WTA Finals take place on an indoor hardcourt from October 22-29 in Singapore and feature the best eight players of the season.
It has been a season which no player has dominated and this is reflected by the fact that seven of the eight players head into the event with a chance of finishing the year as world number one.
A round-robin format is in use with the top two in each group of four progressing to the knockout semi-finals.
Here's my player-by-player look at the field with my betting verdict and tips at the foot of the article.
Red Group
Simona Halep
Odds (Sky Bet) – To win title: 9/2; To win group: 13/8
2017 win-loss: 46-15 (1 title - Madrid)
Record v group opponents:
Svitolina - Overall: 1-2; Hard: 0-1; 2017: 1-2
Wozniacki - Overall: 2-3; Hard: 2-1; 2017: 0-1
Garcia - Overall: 2-1; Hard: 2-1; 2017: 1-0
Recent form: RU Beijing (bt Ostapenko, l Garcia); L32 Wuhan (l Kasatkina)
Tournament record (played in Singapore since 2014): 5-6 - 16 Gp, 15 Gp, 14 RU
Only Venus Williams has won fewer matches this season of those competing in Singapore and the American has played only 47 matches. It is therefore perhaps surprising that Halep arrives as world number one. Yet to win a Grand Slam title but did make the final here three years ago.
Elina Svitolina
Odds (Sky Bet) - To win title: 11/2; To win group: 9/4
2017 win-loss: 52-12 (5 titles – Taipei, Dubai, Istanbul, Rome, Toronto).
Record v group opponents:
Halep - Overall: 2-1; Hard: 1-0; 2017: 2-1
Wozniacki - Overall: 3-0; Hard: 3-0; 2017: 2-0
Garcia - Overall: 1-1; Hard: 1-1; 2017: 0-1
Recent form: L16 Hong Kong (withdrew injured); QF Beijing (l Garcia)
Tournament record: Debut
Owner of the best winning percentage of the eight qualifiers but four of her titles came in the first half of the season. Suffered a groin injury in Hong Kong last week and spoke about how stretching for wide balls was causing her pain. That has to be a concern.
Caroline Wozniacki
Odds (Sky Bet) – To win title: 7/1; To win group: 7/2
2017 win-loss: 56-20 (1 title - Tokyo)
Record v group opponents:
Halep - Overall: 3-2; Hard: 1-2; 2017: 1-0
Svitolina - Overall: 0-3; Hard: 0-3; 2017: 0-2
Garcia - Overall: 2-0; Hard: 2-0; 2017: 0-0
Recent form: L16 Hong Kong (withdrew injured); L16 Beijing (l Kvitova); L32 Wuhan (l Sakkari); W Tokyo (bt Muguruza)
Tournament record: 9-7 - 14 SF, 11 Gp, 10 RU, 09 SF
Lost in six straight finals before breaking her duck for the season in Tokyo last month. Has played considerably more matches than anyone else in the field (76 in total) but the Dane is a player used to a hectic schedule and has performed to a high level in the WTA Finals in the past, reaching the knockout stage on three of her four previous appearances. However, a recent withdrawal from Hong Kong, due to elbow pain, is a worry.
Caroline Garcia
Odds (Sky Bet) – To win title: 6/1; To win group: 10/3
2017 win-loss: 46-20 (2 titles – Wuhan, Beijing)
Record v group opponents:
Halep - Overall: 1-2; Hard: 1-2; 2017: 0-1
Svitolina - Overall: 1-1; Hard: 1-1; 2017: 1-0
Wozniacki - Overall: 0-2; Hard: 0-2; 2017: 0-0
Recent form: Won Beijing (bt Svitolina & Halep); Won Wuhan; QF Tokyo (l Muguruza)
Tournament record: Debut
Both of her 2017 trophies have been collected in the last few weeks – the Frenchwoman arrives on an 11-match winning streak after back-to-back titles on the Asian swing. It is form which warrants respect. Withdrew from Tianjin but that was likely a decision to simply rest up ahead of this event.
White Group
Garbine Muguruza
Odds (Sky Bet) – To win title: 9/2; To win group: 11/8
2017 win-loss: 46-19 (2 titles – Wimbledon, Cincinnati).
Record v group opponents:
Pliskova - Overall: 2-6; Hard: 1-6; 2017: 1-2
Williams - Overall: 2-3; Hard: 0-3; 2017: 2-0
Ostapenko - Overall: 2-1; Hard: 0-1; 2017: 1-1
Recent form: L64 Beijing (l Strycova – quit injured); QF Wuhan (l Ostapenko); SF Tokyo (bt Garcia, l Wozniacki)
Tournament record (played in Singapore since 2014): 4-3 - 16 Gp, 15 SF
Won impressively at Wimbledon and then went on to become world number one for the first time but form has dipped in recent weeks, failing to make a big impact during the Asian swing when she was suffering first with a leg problem and then a virus. Dominated her group here in 2015 but then lost in the semis.
Karolina Pliskova
Odds (Sky Bet) – To win title: 9/2; To win group: 9/4
2017 win-loss: 51-16 (3 titles – Brisbane, Doha, Eastbourne)
Record v group opponents:
Muguruza - Overall: 6-2; Hard: 6-1; 2017: 2-1
Williams - Overall: 1-1; Hard: 1-1; 2017: 0-0
Ostapenko - Overall: 2-0; Hard: 2-0; 2017: 1-0
Recent form: L16 Beijing (l Cirstea); QF Wuhan (l Barty); QF Tokyo (l Kerber)
Tournament record (played in Singapore since 2014): 1-2 – 16 Gp
Became world number one at Wimbledon but has made only one semi-final since, the recent Asian swing proving particularly disappointing with Singapore in mind. Failed to get out of her group last season when conditions failed to significantly help her big serve.
Venus Williams
Odds (Sky Bet) – To win title: 9/1; To win group: 4/1
2017 win-loss: 35-12 (0 titles)
Record v group opponents:
Muguruza - Overall: 3-2; Hard: 3-0; 2017: 0-2
Pliskova - Overall: 1-1; Hard: 1-1; 2017: 0-0
Ostapenko - Overall: 1-0; Hard: 0-0; 2017: 1-0
Recent form: L16 Hong Kong (l Osaka)
Tournament record: 11-5 – 09 RU, 08 W, 02 SF, 99 SF
The only qualifier who has not won a title this season. However, she did reach two Grand Slam finals so, like much of her career, she has tended to save her best for the biggest events. Has played only two matches since the US Open but has always made it out of her group on her previous visits to this season-ending event, winning it in 2008. Also had two semi-final appearances when it was straight knockout.
Jelena Ostapenko
Odds (Sky Bet) – To win title: 8/1; To win group: 7/2
2017 win-loss: 47-18 (2 titles – French Open, Seoul)
Record v group opponents:
Muguruza - Overall: 1-2; Hard: 1-0; 2017: 1-1
Pliskova - Overall: 0-2; Hard: 0-2; 2017: 0-1
Williams - Overall: 0-1; Hard: 0-0; 2017: 0-1
Recent form: SF Beijing (l Garcia); SF Wuhan (bt Muguruza, l Barty), W Seoul
Tournament record: Debut
Won her first tour-level title when emerging as the surprise French Open champion; backed that up by winning in Seoul last month. Big shotmaker who goes for broke. When that comes off she can beat anyone but clearly it’s a gameplan with a downside. In decent form and holds a 6-4 record against her fellow qualifiers in 2017.
Verdict
Venus Williams is the rank outsider with the bookmakers but I feel there's value to be had in backing the 37-year-old.
The very fact that she's turned up should be considered a positive. She has qualified for the Finals 10 times in the past but only played the tournament on four occasions, each time making the semis at worst. She won in 2008 and was the beaten finalist in 2009.
The American has very much focused on the biggest events, not surprising given her age, reaching the final at both the Australian Open and Wimbledon plus the last four of the US Open.
This isn't a Grand Slam but outside of the majors, this is as big as it gets and I'm sure Williams will be turning up here very much intent on winning.
She's got a strong record against her group opponents with the White Pool looking the weaker of the two. Both Muguruza and Pliskova have been shy of their best form since the tour arrived in Asia, while I suspect Ostapenko's hit-and-miss tennis will prove her undoing in such elite company.
In fact these are four big-hitters going toe-to-toe and that should suit Williams, who would prefer not to get drawn into long, hard-fought rallies. First-strike tennis is her game and she looks a decent price.
The main concern would be how fast the court plays. Opinions were split on this among the players last season but it's unlikely to be lightning fast.
However, she should cope with a lower bounce better than some and I feel she's worth chancing at 9/1. You can also get 33/1 with Paddy Power that she wins all five matches which may tempt some.
In the other pool, I think Caroline Wozniacki is overpriced in the group betting at 7/2.
She played very well here on her last appearance in 2014, winning all three group matches before going down 7-6 in the third to eventual champion Serena Williams in the semis.
It's been another strong season for the Dane and with her final duck now broken, she should arrive with confidence high.
She's avoided the big-hitters in the draw and will relish grinding out results in long rallies and has shown in the past that fatigue has not been a huge problem for her at this time of year.
Halep, who has exited in the group stage in each of the last two years, looks a flaky favourite, particularly with the pressure of defending the top ranking on her shoulders.
It's only 10 days since Svitolina was speaking about being unable to stretch for wide balls due to a groin problem and while Garcia's recent form certainly brings the Frenchwoman into the equation, I can overlook the debutant at a shorter price.
For me, Wozniacki is the bet in this section.
Where to watch on TV: BT Sport
Recommended bets
1pt Venus Williams to win the title at 9/1
1pt Caroline Wozniacki to win the Red Group at 7/2
Click here for our transparent tipping record.
Posted at 1625 BST on 20/10/17.
