Andy Schooler delivers his verdict on Sunday's Wimbledon men’s singles final between Novak Djokovic and Nick Kyrgios.
Tennis betting tips: Men's final
2pts Over 37.5 games in the match at 20/23 (BetVictor)
0.5pt Novak Djokovic to beat Nick Kyrgios from behind (in sets) at 9/2 (bet365)
0.5pt Nick Kyrgios to beat Novak Djokovic 3-0 at 16/1 (BoyleSports)
Novak Djokovic v Nick Kyrgios (1400 BST)
No Roger Federer, no Rafael Nadal; not even plucky Brit Cameron Norrie will be in this year’s Wimbledon final.
So, for many of those with £230 tickets for Sunday’s Wimbledon final there’s the awkward decision to be made about who to cheer for – vaccine rebel and long-time ‘outsider’ Novak Djokovic or foul-mouthed, man-child Nick Kyrgios.
Maybe a tournament which banned players based on their nationality and then failed to award ranking points to those who were invited has got the final it deserves.
It will certainly be interesting to see who the majority of the Centre Court crowd side with – there must be a chance that Djokovic, who for so long has had the fans against him at the Grand Slams, will be their man.
The Serb, who will crazily drop to seventh in the world rankings even if he wins this match, will be chasing his seventh Wimbledon title and he will do so against a maiden Grand Slam finalist.
He’s now won 27 consecutive matches at the All England Club so it’s no surprise that he’s going off at 1/4.
Yet once again we are able to say that Djokovic, whose season did not really begin until April following his infamous deportation from Australia, has not been at his best this fortnight.
He’s dropped at least a set in four of his six matches thus far and that invokes memories of last year’s US Open where he battled through to the final only to then be beaten in straight sets by Daniil Medvedev.
More recently, at Roland Garros, Djokovic had an easier passage to a showdown match but when that came he was well beaten by another rival who has given him plenty of problems in the past, namely Nadal.
It’s therefore particularly noteworthy that Djokovic has struggled considerably against Kyrgios in their two previous meetings.
Few players have an unbeaten record against Djokovic while winning multiple matches but the Australian does having twice defeated the Serb on a hardcourt in 2017. Both were in straight sets.
It must be noted that Djokovic wasn’t in the greatest form at the time but the biggest thing to note from those meetings was how badly he struggled with the Kyrgios serve, failing to break it in either match. He was aced 39 times in those four sets.
There is also animosity between the pair.
In 2019, Kyrgios famously tore into Djokovic in an interview for the No Challenges Remaining podcast saying: “I just feel like he has a sick obsession with wanting to be liked. He just wants to be like Roger.
“I feel like he just wants to be liked so much that I just can’t stand him.
“This whole celebration thing that he does after matches, it’s like so cringeworthy.”
Whether that feeling – or the crowd’s involvement – affects the match remains to be seen but what we do know if that Kyrgios has already admitted to feeling nervous. And that was just after progressing to the final courtesy of Nadal’s withdrawal.
How a maiden finalist deals with such nerves is always important but the laid-back Aussie doesn’t seem like the sort of person to be overwhelmed by them.
He’ll know his huge serve is a big plus for him, the grass making it even tougher to deal with, and focus will surely be on holding from the outset – a strong start looks essential.
With Djokovic not having had a look at that delivery in five years, I’d envisage a tight opener with Djokovic surely looking to improve in that area after a woeful start against Norrie in his semi-final.
From the favourite’s side of things, he’ll know that a best-of-five match is different to those best-of-three encounters of 2017.
Djokovic’s mental strength means he won’t panic even if Kyrgios bags an early lead. He showed that against Jannik Sinner in the quarter-finals when he recovered from two sets down.
What are the bets?
My main selection is for over 37.5 games in the match.
Breaks of serve will likely be at a premium and so there’s a good chance of a tie-break or two to boost those game figures – there has been one in each of those two previous meetings.
I’m personally making this a closer match than the odds suggest and I am expecting both players to grab a set, although it’s always hard to be very confident with predictions in a Kyrgios match – you simply never know in what mood he’s going to turn up and if anyone’s capable of losing a set quickly it’s him.
For something bigger, and for those looking to side with Djokovic, 9/2 about the Serb winning from behind (in sets) has potential.
A fast start looks essential for Kyrgios and history suggests Djokovic may struggle to get a read on that big serve, certainly in the early stages.
As for those looking to back Kyrgios, then 16/1 about a 3-0 win for the underdog simply looks too big.
OK, as you can tell it’s no something I really expect to land but at the same time if he’s going to win then there’s a good chance if will be by blasting Djokovic away with that serve.
With both previous meetings having ended in a straight-sets win for the Australian, a small play on this might just reward.
Posted at 1530 BST on 09/07/22
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