Wimbledon tennis betting tips: Daily best bets Wednesday July 10

Daily tennis betting tips: Wimbledon

1.5pts Lorenzo Musetti (+5.5) to beat Taylor Fritz on the game handicap at 3/4 (Unibet, BetUK, BetMGM)

1.5pts Elina Svitolina over 1.5 double faults v Elena Rybakina at evens (Betfair, Paddy Power, bet365)

0.5pt Svitolina to serve most double faults v Rybakina at 4/1 (bet365)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

Lorenzo Musetti v Taylor Fritz

My initial thought on this one was that Fritz would come through it but I was surprised to see him no bigger than 2/9.

He frankly was a tad fortunate in the last round when he came from two sets down to beat an ailing Alex Zverev and Musetti has really taken to grass this season, coming into this match with an 11-2 win-loss record on the surface.

He made the final at Queen’s Club and the semis in Stuttgart the previous week so confidence must really be up.

Across the last two seasons on grass, only top-20 players – plus Matteo Berrettini (a top-20 player returning from injury) – have beaten the Italian on this surface.

OK, Fritz fits into that top-20 bracket but should he really be so short?

The serve is the American’s key weapon and he has only been broken twice in his four matches so far.

But the return isn’t great – he’s broken serve only 12% of the time on grass this year – and with Musetti having won 65% of second-serve points at the tournament so far, you wonder if Fritz will have much joy on that front again.

Another factor in the underdog’s favour is that he comes into this contest having only just faced another massive server in Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard. He dealt with the Frenchman fairly comfortably.

I see this being close, serve-dominated and featuring a tie-break or two.

Playing over the total games line is a potential angle but I’m going to side with Musetti on the handicap.

You can get 3/4 about him covering the 5.5-game line and given I’m expecting it to be a struggle for Fritz to break, that looks worth a play.

• CLICK HERE to back Musetti +5.5 games with Sky Bet

Alex de Minaur v Novak Djokovic

The reason I’m not particularly keen to get involved in this one could be that I called the pair’s last-round matches very poorly.

However, realistically, I think it’s got more to do with the way De Minaur walked very gingerly off court having just won his last-16 match with Arthur Fils.

He later explained he’d felt something in his hip and I’d be very concerned if that is still bothering him on Wednesday afternoon.

De Minaur’s game is all about movement and he’ll need to use his superb speed and court coverage if he’s to deny Djokovic.

The Serb looked is ominous form as he dispatched Holger Rune without losing his serve. The crowd seemed to bother him more than the Dane – and they were duly blasted post-match.

I’d describe his comments as ‘ill-advised’ and he may see some sort of reaction from the crowd in this one – the fans will not need an excuse to back a player who is dating the British number one, Katie Boulter.

However, they are unlikely to be too raucous – this is not Roland Garros and politeness still reigns in SW19.

Djokovic wins this for me but I won’t be having a bet.

Elena Rybakina v Elina Svitolina

Svitolina has enjoyed another sparkling major run and with her great defence, she should not be ruled out against the tournament favourite.

It was at this stage last year that she took out world number one Iga Swiatek when she was a bigger price than she is here.

However, I’m a bit wary in terms of siding with her given the way Rybakina has been playing.

She’s had few problems so far and I noted with interest that she said conditions are “perfect” for her game when the roof is closed at Wimbledon.

With more showers forecast, that could well be the case again with organisers have erred on the side of caution throughout.

Instead of getting involved in the match betting, it’s to an old favourite we turn.

It’s getting to that part of the tournament where more serve markets become available and this column has done well in those over the years.

There’s an angle I like in this one, too, and it relates to double faults.

Too often the lines are drawn up using current tournament data – Rybakina has served 0.36 per game so far; Svitolina only 0.09.

However, the first thing I look at with these bets is the head-to-head – ie, how each player has dealt with the other’s serve (or potential returns) in the past.

Using this, you find that Svitolina has served the most double faults in three of the pair’s four meetings. That immediately makes 4/1 about a repeat look big.

You can see why. Rybakina will look to go after any second serves and that can lead to the server either putting on extra pace or going for the lines more. Both tactics make mistakes more likely.

There’s also a safer bet which looks good, namely Svitolina to serve over 1.5 double faults.

She’s managed to land this in only one of her four rounds so far but, as already suggested, her serve is going to come under much greater pressure here with the Kazakh having won the majority of he return games in the tournament (53%).

Svitolina has landed this bet in all four previous meetings with Rybakina, her make-ups being 3-6-3-2, so even-money looks a good bet to me.

Jelena Ostapenko v Barbora Krejcikova

Ostapenko is the favourite here, which is no surprise.

She’s played twice at this stage of Wimbledon before, winning one QF, and she leads the head-to-head 5-2, including the last three and the only one on grass.

Followers of my outright preview have no need to get involved though – we’re simply wanting an Ostapenko win to land the 14/1 quarter bet.

Of course, you are in a position to trade out if you so wish.

Given Ostapenko’s hit-and-miss game, that may be a wise move, but if she turns up playing the tennis she’s produced so far in SW19, I see only one winner.

Posted at 1720 BST on 09/07/24

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