Best bet
Federer to win in four or five sets at 5/4
Once again, Roger Federer has attracted all the attention ahead of Sunday’s final but the fact is both players are playing some of the best tennis of their career right now.
While it’s true that Federer, even at the age of 35, is taking his game to new levels, Marin Cilic should not be under-estimated here given his form.
He’s enjoyed an excellent grasscourt season, backing up his Queen’s Club final appearance with another deep run in SW19.
The Croatian may trail the head-to-head 6-1 but look closer and you’ll see that on the faster surfaces – here at Wimbledon and in their two US Open meetings – he’s won at least a set on every occasion.
Here last year, in the quarter-finals, he led by two sets and held match points in the fourth set before losing in five. Had he taken one of his three chances to kill the contest, he’d be coming in here having won the last two against Federer.
Followers of our outright preview will be sitting pretty with 23/10 about Federer still running - he's now 1/6 so you can lock in a profit if you want - but in terms of this match he comes in having not dropped a set with many opponents unable to lay a glove on him.
Cilic does have the weapons to compete though. Indeed, he blew Federer away in the US Open final of 2014 and I’m sure that will at the very least be at the back of Federer’s mind.
With both men serving superbly of late, tie-breaks appear likely and Cilic is more than capable of nicking one of those.
I still expect Federer to prevail – his level has been higher than Cilic’s overall from the matches I’ve seen – and getting 3-1 and 3-2 at odds-against looks a decent way to go.
Long shot
Cilic to win the first set 7-6 at 5/1
Cilic’s best chance has to be to get ahead early – coming from behind against a great front-runner like Federer is going to be very tough.
If you’re after a long shot, this could be worth a dabble.
As well as Federer has played this tournament, he has often taken a while to find his very best form. Indeed three of his six matches have seen a tie-break in the first set.
The first set has gone to a breaker in two of the pair’s last three meetings with Cilic winning the opener 7-6 here 12 months ago, all of which gives the 5/1 some appeal.
Stats bet
Cilic’s first-serve percentage to be lower than 61.5 at 5/6
When you get to the later stages of a Slam, there are always plenty of sub-markets on offer and you can usually find an angle by delving into the stats and the bet I like concerns how often Cilic gets his first serve into play.
He's managed it 62 per cent of the time during the tournament so far and if he repeats that he’ll be over the line.
However, the pressure of a Wimbledon final – and the fact that the aggressive Federer is ready to jump on top of anything that’s not close to the lines – seems likely to push that figure down more towards Cilic’s overall 2017 level which sits at 58.
Indeed, look at the pair’s previous meetings and you find that Cilic has only managed to beat the 61.5 mark in one of the seven, his figures being (most recent first) 57-56-57-53-68-50-58. The 56 figure was in the US Open final of 2014 – his only previous Grand Slam final (which he won easily).
While we’re on serve stats, the big-hitters among you may want to know that it’s 1/3 that Federer has a higher first-serve percentage.
He’s four percentage points higher at this tournament and four higher for the season as a whole. As for previous meetings, his ‘winning’ margins have been 6-6-6-15-7-20-3.
I don't tip at such odds but there are worse 1/3 shots about.
All prices with our betting partners Sky Bet.
Posted at 2000 BST on 15/07/17.
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