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Wimbledon betting tips: Day 4 betting preview and tennis tips
After two more winners from three bets on Wednesday - making it six out of nine in all - Andy Schooler gives his betting advice for day four of Wimbledon.
Bet of the day
Agnieszka Radwanska to beat Christina McHale in fewer than 20.5 games at 6/4
Certain match-ups just work and this is one of them.
Radwanska’s mix-and-match game has proved too much for McHale in each of their five previous meetings. The Pole has won all of them in straight sets with seven of those sets having a winning margin of at least four games.
With her more standard style, McHale has struggled to deal with Radwanska’s slices, spin and drop shots and her Tuesday scrape with a shock exit at the hands of British wild card Katie Boulter – ranked outside the world’s top 200 – hardly suggests she’s in the form to suddenly turn the tide. This isn’t her surface either, while Radwanska is a former finalist here.
The one worry would be Radwanska’s recent injury problem. She admitted after her first-round win that her foot was still bothering her. Still, she did manage to win eight straight games against former world number one Jelena Jankovic.
She took a bit of time to get going in that one, which puts me off backing the 11/4 about the first set being won 6-0, 6-1 or 6-2 by the Pole. Instead I’ll back her to win inside 20.5 games – something she’s managed to do every time the pair have met so far.
Outside chances
Tie-break to be played in Kristina Mladenovic v Alison Riske at 11/4
We had some joy in this tie-break market yesterday and I’m going back in again in a match between two more decent servers.
The lanky Mladenovic’s delivery is well known but for a player of 5ft 8in, Riske also possesses a decent weapon in that department and should be able to hold her own against a player I’ve backed at 40/1 for the title.
That’s certainly been the case in their previous meetings. Despite the fact that the Frenchwoman has won them all, they’ve all been pretty tight and, notably, they’ve all featured a tie-break.
The match most worth studying of the quartet is their grasscourt meeting in Birmingham two years ago which saw a total of 21 aces - 13 from Mladenovic, who also held serve throughout her first-round win on Tuesday - and just three breaks of serve.
There’s every chance something similar unfolds in this renewal and if it does then 11/4 about another 7-6 set will look big.
Kirsten Flipkens to beat Angelique Kerber at 11/4
We’ve had two winning trebles from three such bets so far this week but I'm not enamoured by Thursday’s coupon with the best I could come up with being wins for the aforementioned Radwanska, Lucie Safarova and Coco Vandweghe.
However, all three have had injury issues of late so the 13/10 on offer simply isn't enough to tempt me in.
Instead I’d prefer to back another long shot with Thursday having plenty of potential for a big upset. I wouldn’t be that surprised to see Magdalena Rybarikova take down new title favourite Karolina Pliskova, who has never been beyond round two at Wimbledon.
On her way back from injury, the Slovak is 14-1 on grass this summer having won ITF titles at both Surbiton and Ilkley. Pliskova will be a big step up from that level but it could happen.
However, I prefer the chances of Kirsten Flipkens at the same price to beat world number one Angelique Kerber.
The German has shown definite signs of improvement in the last week or so, winning a couple of matches at Eastbourne, but I suspect her confidence remains fragile following a season in which she has already lost 14 matches.
A semi-finalist back in 2013, Flipkens can play on this surface and will go for her shots, of that you can be sure. She’ll out-hit Kerber and likely score more winners. If she can keep the unforced error count down, she’ll definitely have a chance.
For those looking for an upset in the men’s draw - I know some people prefer to swerve betting on the women's game - I’d suggest Mikhail Youzhny is overpriced at 8/1 to beat Milos Raonic, while 9/2 chance Marcos Baghdatis can cause Grigor Dimitrov problems on this surface.
Both underdogs have performed well here in the past and neither of the hot favourites is at the peak of his form right now. Certainly Youzhny and Baghdatis are worth considering on the handicaps.
Posted at 0715 BST on 06/07/17.