Tennis tips: Outright betting previews for Generali Open and Atlanta Open

Tennis betting tips: Generali Open and Atlanta Open

1pt e.w. Albert Ramos-Vinolas in the Generali Open at 9/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes)

1pt e.w. Taylor Fritz in the Truist Atlanta Open at 16/1 (bet365)

0.5pt e.w. Mackenzie McDonald in the Truist Atlanta Open at 40/1 (Betfair, Paddy Power)

0.5pt e.w. Lloyd Harris in the Truist Atlanta Open at 25/1 (Betfair, Paddy Power, Unibet)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

Generali Open

• Kitzbuhel, Austria (outdoor clay)

The Alpine resort of Kitzbuhel stages the final claycourt event of the season this week.

With the Olympics still ongoing, it isn’t the strongest field ever assembled but it is significantly better than the ones which gathered in Gstaad and Umag last week.

Essentially Kitzbuhel has attracted the best players from those two events but those who arrive from Gstaad should have something of an advantage.

Just like the Swiss event, the Generali Open is played at significant altitude – around 750m – where the balls fly through the thin air and control is a key element for potential champions to have.

In contrast, the Croatian town of Umag is down at sea level so those travelling from there will have to adjust quickly.

With this in mind, I wouldn’t be at all keen to back Carlos Alcaraz this week. The Spanish wonderkid is among the favourites again but at time of writing he’s due to contest the Umag final.

He’ll have to play here on either Tuesday or Wednesday so won’t have long to get used to the different conditions.

He’s also been moved into the top half of the draw following the withdrawal of Aljaz Bedene and that puts him on collision course with top seed Casper Ruud – the pair could meet in the last eight.

Ruud is favourite for good reason.

After victories in Bastad and Gstaad, the Norwegian will be bidding to achieve the rare feat of three titles in as many weeks on the ATP Tour.

Normally, the alarm bells of fatigue would be ringing but the fact is that, thanks to byes and a walkover, Ruud has played just seven matches to win those two titles – and lost only one set.

The conditions here make his underrated serve – he’s in the top 10 this year for service games won - an even greater weapon and I don’t see too many being able to compete at his level.

I was initially tempted to back him at 10/3 but that price hasn’t changed despite Alcaraz being moved into his section so I’m not sure there’s much value in that now.

One of those who may well be able to compete with Ruud, should they meet, is ALBERT RAMOS-VINOLAS, who looks the best bet in the bottom half.

He has won four of five previous meetings with Ruud and showed a return to form last week reaching the last four, albeit in Umag.

The reason I’m prepared to side with someone from that event is that Ramos-Vinolas is a player with a particularly strong record at altitude.

The Spaniard was a winner in Gstaad in 2019, the same year he also finished runner-up in Kitzbuhel.

He’s also made finals in Cordoba (earlier this year), Quito and Sao Paulo over the years, meaning five of his 10 career finals have been played at a significant altitude.

A proper clay specialist, Ramos-Vinolas has already contested two ATP finals on this surface this season, while last week’s loss to Alcaraz was his third in a semi-final in 2021.

Twenty-nine of his 36 matches this year have been played on clay and I’m sure he’ll be very keen to squeeze the most out of his last big title chance of the season.

The bottom half’s other leading seeds have question marks hanging over them.

Of those who competed in Gstaad last week, I’ll again take on Roberto Bautista Agut. I mentioned his poor clay record in 2021 in last week’s preview and he duly lost his first match to continue that.

I ended up siding with Laslo Djere and he almost delivered but ended up losing from 1.08 in-play in the ‘money match’ against world number 155 Hugo Gaston. Disappointing doesn’t do it justice.

Also a semi-finalist in Hamburg the week before, Djere will bid for another deep run this week but a busy schedule must be a concern now, while his loss to Gaston was a worrying 10th in 12 semi-finals at tour level.

I’m therefore happy to give Ramos-Vinolas the nod at 9/1.

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Truist Atlanta Open

• Atlanta, USA (outdoor hard)

Those players who prioritised US Open preparation ahead of the Olympics – not to mention the ones who didn’t qualify for Tokyo – head to Atlanta this week.

Temperatures in the mid-30s are the norm here and it’s usually a quicker than average – certainly faster than last week’s event in Los Cabos.

That’s highlighted in the tournament’s history where big servers have often gone well.

The biggest of them all, John Isner, has won this event five times in its 10 stagings, also finishing runner-up on three occasions.

Nick Kyrgios and Andy Roddick are other names on the trophy, while reigning champion Alex de Minaur didn’t face a break point when he won the title in 2019.

There are plenty of players who fit the strong-server profile in this year’s event, including Isner who is in the bottom half of the draw, alongside fellow American Reilly Opelka.

Isner’s record clearly warrants respect and this is very much his time of year. However, Madrid aside, his form hasn’t been great and he may be regretting a fairly limited schedule.

Here he could face Jack Sock in round two, a player who has troubled him in the past, winning three of their eight meetings. Title favourite Jannik Sinner could follow in the quarter-finals.

I think 6/1 about Isner is short enough and while Sinner clearly has the talent to win here, again the price (4/1) looks rather skinny.

The Italian struggled on the clay and grass over recent months and he should be happy to be back on a hardcourt – the surface on which he made the Miami final in April.

However, it may be asking a lot for him to click straight back into top gear and there’s also a worry it may be a touch quick for Sinner here.

Opelka, twice a semi-finalist in Atlanta, could go well at 16s but my preference in the bottom half is for TAYLOR FRITZ at the same price.

I mentioned him in last week’s preview and he duly progressed to the semi-finals in Los Cabos.

That’s decent prep for this event where the faster courts will add his big serve.

He was the runner-up to De Minaur the last time this tournament was staged so has proved he can play here.

The reason I opt for him ahead of Opelka is their head-to-head record. Fritz is 6-1 up, 4-1 at tour level, which looks significant ahead of any quarter-final meeting.

Before that, Fritz opens against a qualifier and if he wins that will face either Steve Johnson, whom he beat in straight sets last week, or Alexei Popyrin, who has won just one of his last seven matches.

At 16/1, Fritz looks a decent each-way bet.

The top half of the draw features another huge server in Milos Raonic.

However, the top seed has to be taken on at 6/1 given he’ll be playing for the first time since Miami in March.

Cameron Norrie, a 9/2 winner for this column in Los Cabos, has the form to go back-to-back and he’s also made the semis here on his last two visits.

However, he’ll open against either Kyrgios or recent Newport winner Kevin Anderson, both of whom have the big serve weapon so useful at this event.

Only one of those three will make the last eight and in this quarter there’s the potential for MACKENZIE MCDONALD to take advantage.

The American has posted some encouraging results on hardcourts in 2021, particularly fast ones.

McDonald started the year by reaching the last 16 of the Australian Open where the courts played particularly quick. He followed that up by winning a Challenger Tour title on indoor hard in Kazakhstan.

He qualified in Miami and beat Vasek Pospisil in the main draw before losing 7-5 in the final set to Isner.

More recently he showed his propensity for a fast court by making the semis of a grasscourt Challenger.

McDonald’s best ATP result came in this part of the world – a semi-final run at Delray Beach in neighbouring Florida in 2019 – and I just feel he’s a bit overpriced here at 40/1.

I’m also going to take a punt on LLOYD HARRIS at 25/1.

He’s in the top quarter with Raonic and is another who has proved his ability on hardcourts this year.

Harris’ best effort came in Dubai where he finished runner-up but not before defeating a strong trio in Denis Shapovalov, Kei Nishikori and Filip Krajinovic.

He also beat Stan Wawrinka in Doha and made the third round of the Australian Open.

The South African’s powerful serve should win him plenty of free points here and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him come through this part of the draw.

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Published at 2030 BST on 25/07/21

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