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US Open tennis betting tips: Wednesday's daily best bets for the quarter-finals
Andy Schooler previews Wednesday’s quarter-final action at the US Open which includes Jannik Sinner v Daniil Medvedev and Jack Draper v Alex de Minaur.
Tennis betting tips: US Open matches
1pt Karolina Muchova to beat Beatriz Haddad Maia 2-0 at 6/5 (bet365)
1pt Iga Swiatek to beat Jessica Pegula 2-0 at 4/5 (bet365, William Hill, 888sport)
1pt Jannik Sinner to serve most aces v Daniil Medvedev at 11/8 (bet365)
Beatriz Haddad Maia v Karolina Muchova (1700 BST)
There are few better players to watch than Muchova when she’s fit and firing and that’s been the case during the US Open so far.
She’s won every match in straight sets and was particularly impressive in taking down Jasmine Paolini in the last round.
Her variety of shot and general court craft can baffle the best of players and she looks in the sort of form that took her to last year’s French Open final.
The Czech has only lost her serve twice in his last three matches in New York and now faces a player who she’s beaten three times in three previous meetings, dropping just the one set in the process.
Haddad Maia is worthy of respect and battled hard to edge past Caroline Wozniacki the other day. However, I wonder if the two hours and 41 minutes she spent on court in the heat of the day will play a part here.
She was one of few top players to compete in the week before this tournament, making the final in Cleveland, so she’s played a lot of tennis in the past fortnight.
I think Muchova wins this and will back her to do so in straight sets.
CLICK HERE to back Muchova to win 2-0 with Sky Bet
Jack Draper v Alex de Minaur (to follow)
I’ve got burned taking on Draper as the favourite in the past couple of rounds and, frankly, he’s made me look rather stupid.
The Briton is playing some great tennis right now, striking the ball very well and his serve is firing – he’s lost only one game on it in four rounds so far.
I suspect De Minaur may struggle to deal with the power, even though he has some of the best defence on the tour and can use his speed around the court to great effect.
Service winners and that all-important serve-plus-one shot may well be where Draper can win this match.
I still have that nagging worry about him having to step up when facing a better opponent though and De Minaur is certainly that. Draper hasn’t faced a seed yet – Carlos Alcaraz having been removed from his path – and now he’s up against a top-10 player who has beaten him three times out three.
The Australian also has that issue of having yet to play a seeded opponent – this is potentially a big leap in quality – and he has dropped a set in three of his four rounds so far.
He spent quite a long time sidelined after Wimbledon and I wonder if that could be a factor when facing a better class of player.
I think there’s a lot of ‘what ifs’ surrounding this one so I’m happy to sit it out from a betting perspective.
Iga Swiatek v Jessica Pegula (0000 BST)
Swiatek hasn’t really put a foot wrong so far, winning her four matches in straight sets.
She hasn’t even faced a break point in her last three matches which bodes very well for this contest. To compare, Pegula has faced 16 break points in her equivalent matches, losing six of them.
Pegula was the form player of the lead up to this event, making back-to-back finals in Toronto and Cincinnati, and she’s also yet to lose a set at Flushing Meadows, but she’s now facing the age-old problem of a Grand Slam quarter-final.
Six times she’s reached this stage before and six times she’s lost.
Facing the world number one is far from ideal either – she’s 6-3 down overall. At least those three wins (all on a hardcourt) will give her some confidence but then the last time they met, Swiatek absolutely brutalised her with a 6-1 6-0 win in the title match at Novemeber’s WTA Finals.
Pegula was playing well going into that match and there could be scar tissue left.
Given all that’s gone before, I do wonder if Pegula truly believes she can win this.
With Swiatek serving so well and striking the ball crisply from the baseline, I see her winning this in straight sets and am prepared to put my money where my mouth is.
CLICK HERE to back Swiatek to win 2-0 with Sky Bet
Jannik Sinner v Daniil Medvedev (to follow)
The tournament favourite faces the 2021 champion under the lights of Arthur Ashe Stadium on Wednesday night and it promises much.
Both men have looked rock solid in reaching this stage – after losing a set in their opening matches, the pair have crusied through in straight sets since.
I’d place a bit of an asterisk next to Medvedev in terms of his level of opponent. He’s yet to face anyone in the top 30 in New York with his last such win coming at Wimbledon – against a certain Mr Sinner.
For all the talk of his hardcourt specialism, the fact is Medvedev has beaten only one top-10 player on this surface since losing to Sinner (from two sets up) in the Australian Open final in January and that was Holger Rune, who has struggled throughout 2024.
For me, he faces a big step up in class here and while at his best, Medvedev is capable of bridging the gap, it looks to be asking a lot.
He suffered a real beatdown when they last met on a hardcourt, Sinner winning 6-1 6-2 in Miami, although he will have regained some confidence from his upset victory at Wimbledon which came in five sets on a day when Sinner wasn’t at his best physically.
The Italian has had plenty of injury issues this season but he hasn’t seemed too bothered by them in New York and he’s probably worthy of his 2/5 price.
Medvedev may well make it competitive – I considered over 37.5 games at 5/6, and Sinner to win with both players winning a set at 6/4. Four of the last five meetings have all gone to a decider.
A tie-break in the match at 4/5 also looks tempting. That’s occurred in four of their last six matches and Sinner played two in the last round against Tommy Paul.
However, this looks a good time to get involved with the aces markets that have served this column well over the years.
Sinner is the 11/8 underdog to serve the most despite having won this bet in this season’s three meetings – 17-15 (Wimbledon), 7-3 (Miami) and 14-11 (Australian Open). The match before that in the series saw a 10-10 draw.
As long-term readers will know, I place much weight on the head-to-head but even for those looking at the stats from this tournament, you’ll see Sinner holds a marginal advantage – he’s served 0.71 aces per game so far, Medvedev 0.7.
11/8 here is just too big.
Posted at 2300 BST on 03/09/24
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