US Open tennis betting tips: Sunday's best bets for men's final between Jannick Sinner and Taylor Fritz

Tennis betting tips: US Open men's final

1pt Taylor Fritz (+5.5) to beat Jannik Sinner on the game handicap at 8/11 (General)

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Jannik Sinner v Taylor Fritz (1900 BST)

It’s hard to believe but it’s now 21 years since an American male won a Grand Slam singles title.

I remember tipping up Andy Roddick to win the US Open that year on this very website after he had surged through both warm-up events in Montreal and Cincinnati - the only man to win all three in the same year since is Rafael Nadal in 2013.

Taylor Fritz now gets the chance to end the barren run but whereas Roddick went off a firm favourite against Juan Carlos Ferrero in 2003, this time the home hope is a considerable outsider at 10/3.

That’s because the man on the other side of the net will be world number one Jannik Sinner.

I’m a little surprised to see him in the final having been happy to take him on in the run-up to the event.

But he battled to victory in Cincinnati and has so far done everything asked of him in New York, defeating Tommy Paul in straight sets, Daniil Medvedev in four and Jack Draper in three in the latter rounds.

One of the main reasons I was prepared to go against the top seed was his body hasn’t been the most robust this season and there’s a chance it’s going to let him down again, albeit in rather freak circumstances.

Sinner suffered a nasty fall during his semi-final victory over Draper, landing heavily on his left wrist. He required treatment on the injury and while he carried on, looking untroubled on his double-handed backhand, you have to wonder if the joint has stiffened up in the aftermath.

As Sinner said himself: “Let's see how it is tomorrow when it's cold. It's gonna be a different feeling. Hopefully is nothing to be concerned about. I'm quite relaxed, because if it's something bad, you feel it straightaway a bit more.”

The whole issue just adds a layer of concern to any punter looking to side with Sinner in some way.

At his best, Sinner is more than capable of winning this quite comfortably.

From what I’ve seen he’s not needed the very top level so far at this tournament yet he’s still proved too good for his opponents.

Against Draper, he played well in the key moments, notably at the end of the first two sets. His tie-break win in the second means he has now won 15 of his last 16 breakers, a stat which says much.

Yet some of the data also looks good from Fritz’s perspective, including their previous meetings.

The head-to-head stands at 1-1, both matches having been played on the hardcourts of Indian Wells, a venue which plays slower than New York.

Fritz won in straight sets in 2021 when Sinner was still on the rise, while two years later it was the latter who emerged victorious, edging home 6-4 in the final set.

The numbers from those contests give Sinner the edge on first serve but Fritz has won an impressive 59% of points on the Sinner second serve with the Italian at 45% on the same metric.

At this tournament, Frtiz has won 81% of points behind his first serve and 62% behind his second, beating Sinner in both categories (79% and 59%).

Fritz will surely look to attack on any second balls he gets a look at and his ground game has shown good improvement. He’s clearly striking the ball well from the baseline, as he showed against Alex Zverev in the quarter-finals where he managed to grind down the German and force the errors.

Sinner will likely prove a tougher nut to crack though and I expect he’ll look to be the aggressor.

It was interesting to hear Fritz admit that Frances Tiafoe had “overwhelmed” him in the early stages of their semi-final.

“He was overwhelming from the baseline so much, taking the ball so early, changing lines so well,” he said.

Serve will be key for Fritz if he wants to avoid a similar scenario. If the Californian is able to continue his impressive service form – he’s held in 94% of his service games so far – he’ll have a good platform to build on.

That said, Sinner has been the best player in the field for getting returns back in play and this looks likely to be the toughest test of the tournament for Fritz, who got past an ailing Casper Ruud, a passive Zverev and a fading Tiafoe in his most recent matches.

As much as the crowd will be willing Fritz on, a fully-fit Sinner should win this, although the American should certainly be encouraged by how he has played and those decent numbers he’s put up.

I think he can keep this competitive with Sinner to win with both players to win a set having plenty of potential at 11/8.

The worry is that wrist.

I’m certainly loath to get involved with something over an injury we don’t know the severity of, but backing Fritz on the handicap covers both bases.

It takes in the theory that he’s capable of keeping things fairly close – as Draper did for two sets in the semi-finals – and also the potential for Sinner to be below his best. If he does struggle on that backhand side, 3/1 about the upset win will suddenly look very tasty.

In short, this isn’t a match to get too heaivly involved in given the uncertainties surrounding it.

It’s been a decent enough tournament for these match bets so missing out here would not be the end of the world.

Before I go, it’s worth people noting the new start time for the men’s final – 1400 local which is 1900 BST.

And finally, thanks for reading these columns during the US Open – and this year’s other Grand Slams. I’ll be back with more outright previews in the coming days and weeks!

Posted at 1720 BST on 07/09/24

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