US Open tennis betting tips: Friday's daily best bets for men's semi-finals featuring Jannik Sinner v Jack Draper

Tennis betting tips: US Open matches

1pt Taylor Fritz to beat Frances Tiafoe 3-0 at 12/5 (bet365)

0.5pt Jannik Sinner to lose the first set and win the match v Jack Draper at 29/5 (Coral, Ladbrokes)

0.5pt Frances Tiafoe to serve the most aces v Taylor Fritz at 6/1 (bet365)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

Jannik Sinner v Jack Draper (2000 BST)

Draper is on the crest of a wave right now – and it’s tempting to ride along with the breakthrough Briton.

He’s done something pretty special in New York, reaching this stage without dropping a set and losing only 36 games – the lowest such figure since the 1980s.

It’s been clear for some time that Draper has some serious weapons in his game and now things have finally seemed to click with, perhaps most importantly, his body holding up to the stress and strain this sport places upon it.

Maybe that will change if the 22-year-old is dragged into the trenches for the first time at the tournament – the man himself insists his body feels “robust” and that he is “ready to go the distance” if needed – but heading into the contest it’s hard to fault Draper.

His serve has been excellent - he’s only lost three service games, holding 95% of the time, a figure which makes Sinner’s very good one of 86% look poor by comparison.

The groundstrokes have been crunching with Draper using his power to full effect off both wings.

Of course, this is a big step up though.

Yes, Draper did beat top-10er Alex de Minaur on Wednesday but the Aussie was clearly struggling with the hip he damaged at Wimbledon.

Next it’s the world number one, who has defeated Tommy Paul and Daniil Medvedev in the last two rounds and while he wasn’t at his best throughout his quarter-final with the latter, the Italian has still looked very strong so far.

Draper did win their only previous meeting but that came more than three years ago on the grass of Queen’s Club and both men have developed considerably since then. Still, if he needed it, Draper will take some sort of confidence from that day when he enjoyed plenty of success with his second-serve returns.

I’m a little surprised to see Draper as big as 9/2 given the way he’s been playing, although I’m not convinced I really see him winning.

I suspect he’ll have to start well to stand a chance but also envisage Sinner figuring things out if he does fall behind early on.

Sinner to win after losing the opener looks an interesting way of getting Draper onside to some extent and worth a small bet at close to 6/1.

I also think that 10/11 about there being a tie-break in this one looks too big given the way both men have served of late.

Sky Bet’s 7/1 about over 1.5 tie-breaks may also be worth chancing if you are looking for a bigger price.

CLICK HERE to bet on Sinner v Draper with Sky Bet

Taylor Fritz v Frances Tiafoe (not before 0000 BST)

Tiafoe insists this contest will be “a little different” to the pair’s previous seven and, given this one will be a Grand Slam semi-final taking place in front of 23,000 people, he has a point.

Yet it’s also hard to ignore a head-to-head that sits 6-1 in Fritz’s favour. He’s won the last six, his sole defeat coming way back in 2016.

Across those six matches – all played on a hardcourt – Fritz has lost just two sets. It’s a strong record and one which has to be in the minds of both players to some extent ahead of what will be the biggest match of both men’s lives.

In that sense, handling the occasion will be a big factor and, on that front, Tiafoe may hold an advantage – he’s played a Slam semi before (losing in five sets to Carlos Alcaraz here two years ago).

Yet it’s hard not to feel that Fritz is a worthy favourite given that H2H.

He’s also playing very well with his victory over Alex Zverev on Tuesday well deserved.

He was the player prepared to take the ball on and go for his shots in the key moments and he was rewarded for it.

Fritz won two tie-breaks that night, making it three-from-three for the tournament, while he’s also won all four he’s played against Tiafoe in their series. That could be significant if this gets close.

The Fritz backhand also stood up well and the player himself has spoken recently about how he’s happier going into backhand exchanges these days – it was a weakness which could be preyed upon before.

Back on the serve, Fritz’s second deal has been very good in the duo’s series. He’s won 55% of points behind it, which is considerably better than Tiafoe’s 44%. That looks an area where he could well profit.

In short, I think there’s plenty to like about Fritz here and while this has been hyped as a potential all-American epic under the Ashe lights, I wouldn’t be surprised if it somewhat disappointed, turning out to be rather one-sided.

Fritz to win in straight sets for the fifth time in seven meetings looks to have some legs at 12/5.

The other side bet which might be worth a punt is for Tiafoe to serve the most aces – he’s out at 6/1 to do so.

Fritz has won this market five times in their seven meetings but, notably, the last two have seen a 12-12 draw and a 6-5 Tiafoe win.

Maybe he’s getting a better read on the Fritz delivery these days and it may be worth paying – a small amount - to find out.

CLICK HERE to bet on Fritz v Tiafoe with Sky Bet

Posted at 0945 BST on 06/09/24

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