Caroline Wozniacki and Elina Svitolina are Andy Schooler's two against the women's singles field at the US Open.
Recommended bets: US Open women's singles
1pt win Elina Svitolina at 11/1 - highly impressive in Toronto; ready for her major breakthrough
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There’s a chance Serena Williams will give birth during this year’s US Open.
Were that to happen, the headlines that inevitably boot actual tennis out of the world’s newspapers and off websites would rather sum up the state of the women’s game right now.
While it is highly competitive, what it doesn’t have is A-grade star quality due to a lack of consistency at the top.
I am not knocking the achievements of Angie Kerber and Garbine Muguruza, both of whom have won two Grand Slam titles in the past two years, but Kerber has faded rapidly after a dreadful 2017 season, while Muguruza still needs to show she can come back and win and win some more.
The open nature of the women’s game is perhaps best summed up by the fact that the four Grand Slam champions – Kerber, Williams, Jelena Ostapenko and Muguruza – hold just a single WTA title between them. And that came from Muguruza only a week ago.
So while they have been able to prove themselves as the best on a big occasion, they’ve not been able to establish any kind of dominance whatsoever.
Muguruza is the bookies’ favourite heading to New York, largely on the back of her Wimbledon triumph although, to be fair, she has backed up by winning in Cincinnati earlier this month.
Still, 9/2 does look pretty short and when you consider the Spaniard has never been beyond round two at Flushing Meadows you have to wonder whether there’s any value to be had in the price.
Muguruza is one of eight players who could end the tournament as world number one – another example of how open the women’s game is right now – and of that octet it is Simona Halep who will hold pole position when the event begins.
The title will see her move to the summit for the first time, while even an early exit could see her claim top spot if other results go her way – as was the case with current number one Karolina Pliskova at Wimbledon.
I’m happy to swerve the pair in New York.
I’ve long had concerns over Halep’s mental state on the biggest of occasions - anyone who has seen her with coach Darren Cahill on court when the chips are down will know what I’m talking about - and recent events have only helped solidify those thoughts.
Three times this season the Romanian has been within one win of becoming world number one. On each occasion she has lost, the last being of particular concern – a 6-1 6-0 defeat to Muguruza in Cincinnati.
The French Open final was another worrying loss – she led Ostapenko by a set and a break only to crumble with the title there for the taking.
Throw in the fact she’s drawn former champion and controversial wild card Maria Sharapova in round one, a player she’s never beaten in six attempts, and I’m more than happy to pass Halep over.
As for Pliskova, last year’s runner-up simply hasn’t shown her best form in the warm-up events. She also remains without a Slam title. I’m not saying she can’t win, I’m just not at all convinced she will.
There are two players I’d much rather back who have shown in various ways that they are capable of contending in New York.
First up is Caroline Wozniacki, who is one of the eight with the world number one ranking in their sights and it’s no wonder after a very consistent season thus far.
The Dane has made no fewer than six finals, most recently in Toronto where she beat Pliskova only to lose in the final.
The fact she’s lost all six finals – in straight sets – will certainly be of concern to some, but her title price of 20/1 has plenty of each-way potential in it so that final record is not going to put me off.
I’m particularly enthused by Flushing Meadows being the Slam venue at which Wozniacki has performed the best – and by some distance.
She’s been to two finals here before, plus three other semis. That’s all in her last eight appearances. Most recently, last year she lost to eventual champion Kerber in the last four, while in 2014 it was Williams who defeated her in the final.
Always blessed with an excellent defensive game. Wozniacki has added more attacking aspects in recent years and the Flushing Meadows courts tend to help that.
She’s already beaten Pliskova (twice), Halep and Muguruza this season. Indeed, she’s 8-5 against top-10 opponents which is very good.
Wozniacki may be in Muguruza’s quarter but she won’t fear her and aside from that she looks well drawn.
Put all the pieces together and the Dane looks worthy of support at the price - sportingbet go 22/1 but 20s in plenty of places if perfectly acceptable.
My second pick is another of the WTA’s leading performers this season who is still looking for her maiden title at the highest level – Elina Svitolina.
Now some regular followers will know I picked out the Ukrainian as my one to watch in 2017 and she’s fully justifying my pre-season faith in her.
Among the suggestions I put up at the start of the year was for Svitolina to win the US Open at 80/1 – it came in a piece about our writers’ best bets for 2017 across all sports.
She’s now a best price of 11/1 (sportingbet) with plenty of 10s available so if you’ve already got 80s on your coupon, this is probably not a bet for you.
But I still feel Svitolina could be worth backing now.
She has arguably the best single piece of form coming into the tournament, namely her title run in Toronto.
There she defeated Venus Williams (losing just three games), Muguruza, Halep and Wozniacki back-to-back as she surged to her fifth title of the season.
The following week she lost to Julia Goerges in the last 16 in Cincinnati but I can forgive her that for a couple of reasons. First, it would have been hard mentally and physically to recover so quickly from such a success as that in Toronto and, secondly, the conditions in Cincinnati are widely regarded as the fastest of the summer hardcourt tournaments and wouldn’t have suited Svitolina’s game as well as those in Canada.
Svitolina is in the top half with Kerber her scheduled quarter-final foe (such is the German’s form she seems unlikely to reach that stage) and Pliskova projected to be waiting in the semis.
However, in the second quarter I’d make Madison Keys Svitolina’s biggest threat.
The American has been a consistent performer in the hardcourt Grand Slams over the past two or three years. The main thing that puts me off backing her is that she doesn’t seem to be able to get through her bad days as often as you’d like and her go-for-broke game means those bad days do come along fairly regularly.
Away from the title market, Sloane Stephens could be of interest in the fourth quarter betting once prices are available.
The American has made a highly impressive return from injury, reaching the semi-finals in both Toronto and Cincinnati with Kerber and Petra Kvitova among her victims.
Rivals in this section include Halep, Sharapova and Briton Jo Konta, who has so far been unable to replicate her Wimbledon form on the hardcourts, losing early in Toronto and then to Halep in the Cincy quarter-finals.
There also looks potential for an upset in the first quarter where Pliskova will be the favourite.
Svetlana Kuznetsova, winner here back in 2004, could be a value pick.
She made the final in Indian Wells earlier this season and while there’s been nothing as spectacular on the hardcourts this summer, she did give current title favourite Muguruza a real test in the Cincinnati quarter-finals, only going down 7-5 in the third to the player who also ended her Wimbledon run at the last-eight stage.
A fighter who never knows when she’s beaten, Kuznetsova will like the look of her draw with the out-of-form Coco Vandeweghe in the section, as well as Agnieszka Radwanska, who hasn’t been at her best this year and has also never been beyond the last 16 in New York.
Kuznetova beat Pliskova during her run in Indian Wells and her hard-hitting game could well reap rewards at a venue which will bring plenty of happy memories to the fore.
Where to watch on TV: Eurosport
Posted at 0935 BST on 26/08/17.
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