Our in-form tipster Andy Schooler says there's every chance of a shock at this year's US Open where he's backing some big prices.
It's been a decent run for followers of this column since the French Open in June with plenty of success.
Lucas Pouille (20/1, Stuttgart), Roger Federer (23/10, Wimbledon) both claimed titles, while Marin Cilic (16/1, Queen's), Venus Williams (16/1, Wimbledon), Kevin Anderson (25/1, Washington) and Thanasi Kokkinakis (40/1, Los Cabos) have all earned places at a decent price.
Still, it's the ones that got away which still grate - Andrey Kuznetsov (40/1), John Isner (35/1) and David Ferrer (100/1) have all lost in semi-finals in recent weeks which is frustrating.
Plenty has been going right though in the hunt for value and I firmly believe there's a good chance of a big-price winner, or at least finalist, emerging at the US Open which starts on Monday. Here's why...
Recommended bets: US Open men's singles
0.5pt e.w. John Isner at 100/1 - in form, well drawn; has never had a better chance in New York
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Whatever happens at the US Open, 2017 will go down as the year of renaissance for Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal.
The pair have seemingly turned back the clock this season and so far have dominated the Grand Slams, Federer winning in Australia and at Wimbledon, Nadal at the French Open.
But it could well turn out there’s a significant footnote listed under 2017 when the history books are read in the distant future.
For the first time since 2003, three successive Masters 1000 titles have just been won by non-Big Four members – those are players outside the quarter of Federer, Nadal, Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray.
Talk of the Big Four’s dominance ending has been going on for some time but it does feel as if we are potentially at a tipping point.
Alex Zverev, still only 20, is the man banging hardest on the door right now – he’s won two of those three Masters crowns, with Grigor Dimitrov claiming the other.
Plenty will argue they’ve taken good advantage of a favourable situation – there have been injuries aplenty to some of the leading names; Federer did not play the claycourt season – and another one presents itself here.
There is little doubt that the US Open provides a real opportunity for players once considered also-rans or ones-of-the-future.
Several big players don’t play including the last two winners, Djokovic and Stan Wawrinka. Milos Raonic and 2014 finalist Kei Nishikori also make that list.
And there are just as many arriving with question marks against their name. Murray hasn’t played since Wimbledon due to injury and neither has 2014 champion Marin Cilic. Meanwhile, title favourite Federer hurt his back in his last match (losing to Zverev in Montreal).
With Nadal’s form having dipped – comparing hardcourt form it’s certainly well short of what it was when he made the final of the Australian Open in January – some of the ‘lesser’ names will surely feel this is a big chance.
We may well look back at the 2017 US Open winner being ‘lucky’, a player who ‘wouldn’t have won’ had the best been fit or the so-called next generation a year more experienced. The sort of thing which is often thrown at the likes of Lleyton Hewitt and Andy Roddick who took full advantage of the post-Sampras, pre-Federer period.
In terms of the betting, I just can’t be risking backing Federer at 2/1 here.
Things were definitely not right with his back in Montreal less than two weeks ago. He duly pulled out of Cincinnati.
The Swiss says he’s “feeling much, much better than a week ago” and if he is 100 per cent then he’ll take some stopping. He’s been the best player this year and is a five-time champion (although the last of those was in 2008).
But the hardcourts are an unforgiving surface for those with back problems and if he’s carrying anything of concern in, it’s hard to see him winning.
I’d advise those wanting to back the third seed to have a look in the first couple of rounds before getting involved. Personally, in the here and now, I can leave him alone.
Nadal is a two-time winner in New York but historically he’s always struggled more in the second half of the season than the first.
As already stated, his hardcourt form has dipped with defeats to Denis Shapovalov and Nick Kyrgios in Montreal and Cincinnati respectively and I think anyone would struggle to argue that he’s played as well as he was in January in Melbourne.
I’ll also remind those who need reminding that Nadal has not won a hardcourt tournament at any level since Doha in January 2014.
Zverev is actually now the third favourite around the 7/1 mark but while I accept he’s playing well, I just can’t get away from the fact that he’s never won a best-of-five-sets match against a player ranked in the world’s top 50.
You won’t be surprised that equates to a poor record in the Slams – last month’s run to the last 16 of Wimbledon being his best effort. He’s not for me.
Neither can I side with Murray given his fitness issues, this despite the Scot getting a draw which he might have hand-picked given the chance.
He hasn’t played a single match on the hardcourts since early March (when he lost his Indian Wells opener) and clearly the hip problem was still bothering him fairly recently given Cincinnati was less than a fortnight ago. Surely he would have played there given the chance, simply to get some matches under his belt.
Yes, his draw gives him a chance to play himself into some sort of form but it’s a big ask, particularly when you consider he’s hardly been at the top of his game this season. It should also be pointed out that since winning here in 2012, Murray is yet to go past the quarter-finals, winning just one match against a top-20 opponent in that time.
Cilic, who has a better record here than Murray in recent years, is another I can dismiss due to his lack of matches of late, while I’m not keen on Dominic Thiem on this DecoTurf surface which I feel is a little fast for him.
Of those towards the head of the market, I’m most keen on Dimitrov.
He won impressively in Cincinnati, seeing off the dangerous threat of John Isner and Nick Kyrgios in the latter rounds well, and there are parallels with his form coming in to the Australian Open earlier in the year.
He made the semis in Melbourne, pushing Nadal all the way in that match, having won a high-quality event in Brisbane in the lead up to it.
Dimitrov can be frustratingly inconsistent – defeat to Robin Haase in Montreal being a case in point – but he’s certainly got the talent to mix it with the best, as he showed in Melbourne.
He’s the sort of player to back when he’s showing good signs – he also won in Sofia in the aftermath of his Melbourne run before hitting the skids – and at 20/1 (William Hill), there’s still some juice in his price, unlike that of Zverev, whose odds have plummeted having been at 28/1 at the start of the month.
Given how I’ve picked holes in so many of the main contenders, I simply have to add some long shots to the staking plan, particularly in that bottom half where Murray, Zverev and Cilic are the three highest-ranked players.
In that section, I’m going to side with both John Isner and David Ferrer, as I did in Cincinnati recently.
On that occasion both reached the semi-finals only to lose with an each-way payout tantalisingly close, but the duo showed they are playing their best tennis of the season.
Isner didn’t lose his serve in Ohio where he backed up form from Atlanta where he won the title. His returning has also picked up during the summer hardcourt swing.
He’ll know this could be his best-ever chance at his home Grand Slam and while that brings pressure he also knows he’s in the sort of form which could well produce a deep run in New York.
Isner has landed in the Zverev/Cilic quarter and looks to have a decent path through the first week with Philipp Kohlschreiber, a player who has beaten him three times in this event in the past, arguably the biggest threat.
Critics will point out this tournament hasn’t been the best for him – his longest run being one to the quarter-finals in 2011.
But while it’s not been as fast here in recent years than in Cincinnati it’s hardly slow and the statistic that shows Isner has a better tie-break win percentage here than across his career as a whole does show his big-serving game is far from muted by the conditions.
At 100/1 (Betfred), Isner makes the cut.
So too does Ferrer who really caught the eye in Cincy where he played some great stuff in dismantling Thiem and then lost on two tie-breaks to Kyrgios (holding serve throughout) in the semis.
Ferrer’s first half of the season was one to forget but since beating Richard Gasquet at Wimbledon he’s won in Bastad, pushed Federer to a final set in Montreal and been to the last four in Cincinnati.
The US Open has been a good venue for him in the past too, with two semi-final runs (most recently in 2012) and another to the quarter-finals in 2013.
Ferrer could run into Murray in the last 16 but the terrier-like Spaniard is exactly the sort of foe you wouldn’t want to face if carrying any kind of injury and Ferrer has given him problems in the past when both have been at their peak.
Again I don’t think the 200/1 quote adequately reflects Ferrer’s chances given how he’s been playing and the circumstances of the main contenders in the section.
Finally, I’ve going to take a punt on a player who traditionally enjoys the US Open, Gael Monfils.
He’s hardly Mr Reliable, particularly on the injury front, and his record here reflects that.
But it also shows he’s more than capable of going well at Flushing Meadows. His last six visits have brought the following results: SF-R1-QF-R2-R2-QF. He’s also been to the fourth round on two other occasions.
Last season’s run to the last four saw him win 15 straight sets before he lost a bizarre contest with Djokovic, the player who also beat him here in the 2010 quarter-finals.
In 2014 he beat Gasquet and Dimitrov before holding match point and eventually losing to Federer in the last eight.
It’s no surprise that showman Monfils likes this venue with its bright lights, huge stage and general ambience and while he’s not displayed the sort of form he brought into last year’s tournament there have been signs that he’s not far off.
Having made the last 16 of both the Australian and French Opens earlier in the season, he reached the Eastbourne final pre-Wimbledon and upon his arrival in North America beat Nishikori in Montreal before losing 7-6 in the third to Roberto Bautista Agut.
Illness hit to prevent him competing in Cincinnati – a setback – but not as worrying as the injuries carried by some others.
Another who appears to be well drawn, Monfils looks capable of playing his way into form in week one and it’s perfectly possible that if he negotiates the early rounds, things could open up in the second week. Back him at 100/1 (Sky Bet, BoyleSports).
Isner, Ferrer and Monfils are all players who have been touted as potential Grand Slam champions at various stages down the years. All are now in their 30s and they may not have a better chance than this left to fulfil that goal.
A small punt on each is my advice here.
Where to watch on TV: Eurosport
Posted at 0935 BST on 26/08/17.
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