Daniil Medvedev v Dominic Thiem (1800 GMT)
If Saturday’s semi-finals are anything to go by, this should be a fitting end to the ATP Finals’ run in London.
Both men won tight battles which were decided by a handful of key points and it would be no surprise to see something similar unfold again.
In the space of just a few hours, both Medvedev and Thiem managed to add their names to the list of players who have beaten both Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal in the same tournament – a list which hadn’t been updated since the 2016 Olympics when Juan Martin del Potro beat both men.
It’s therefore hard to argue the pair don’t deserve to be contesting this final, although it could easily have been all so different.
Thiem trailed Djokovic 4-0 in their final-set tie-break before playing some stunning tennis in the closing minutes, while Nadal served for a straight-sets win over Medvedev before the Russian edged him out in three.
Serve was key to both wins and that’s a nod to where my best bet lies.
Thiem didn’t lose his delivery at all against Djokovic and if you take out his dead rubber against Andrey Rublev (when frankly Thiem didn’t look dialled in mentally) he’s lost serve only twice in three matches this week.
As for Medvedev, you wondered at times how Nadal could break him – the Russian put 70% of his first serves in play and won 77% of the points behind that shot. It’s been a similar tale all week, 77% also being his figure for that statistic across the tournament as a whole.
In the end, Nadal did manage to break on three occasions – something which didn’t look likely the way Medvedev began the match – but I don’t put Thiem in quite the same class for returning serve.
The stats agree – Nadal leads the tour in 2020 for return games won (36%) with Thiem sixth (29%). On hardcourts it’s Nadal in fifth with Thiem 10th.
This week, Thiem has only gained four breaks of his opponents’ serve across his four matches. He’s subsequently relied on plenty of tie-breaks, playing five and winning four.
With both men serving so well, another breaker here looks highly likely.
To add weight to the argument, the pair played two in their recent US Open semi-final.
A first-set tie-break can be backed at 13/5 which while slightly lower than the average equivalent price this week, still looks worthy of support.
In terms of the match outcome, it really does look hard to call.
I’d say I’ve been slightly more impressed by Medvedev this week but certainly not by much.
He’s been able to break serve far more regularly (13 times) and he may get some joy on return. He did create eight break points during that US Open clash but took only two.
Thiem ended up winning 6-2 7-6 7-6 in September to extend his winning record in their head-to-head series to 3-1 but Medvedev did hold set point in both the second and third sets.
It was the second serves which were arguably the decisive factor that day – Medvedev winning only 40% of points behind his, Thiem 55%.
But if Medvedev manages to keep that first-serve percentage high, the second serve will become less of a factor.
I tentatively make Medvedev a slight favourite but then so do the bookies – he’s at 3/4 with Thiem a 6/5 shot.
I therefore see little value in the match market and will stick with the tie-break bet in a bid to end a decent week on a high.
Posted at 1015 GMT on 22/11/20
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