Tennis betting tips: Wimbledon ladies' singles outright best bets

Tennis betting tips: Wimbledon ladies' singles

1.5pt e.w Ons Jabeur to win the title at 16/1 (Spreadex, Sporting Index)

1pt e.w Madison Keys to win the title at 25/1 (betway)

0.5pt Jelena Ostapenko to win quarter one at 14/1 (Betfred)

0.5pt Emma Navarro to win quarter four at 20/1 (bet365, William Hill)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

Wimbledon (All England Championships), ladies’ singles

• Wimbledon, London, England, UK (outdoor grass)

We’ve heard a lot about the homogenisation of the court surfaces over the last 20 years.

Yet it’s undeniable that the grass still provides its own unique challenges and if you don’t believe me, just ask Iga Swiatek.

She’s now a four-time French Open champion after (largely) pummelling her way through the field at Roland Garros.

Her Paris dominance has already put her name among the claycourt greats at the age of just 23, but Swiatek is yet to do anything significant at Wimbledon.

Last year’s quarter-final defeat to Elina Svitolina was her best effort in SW19 with the faster, low-bouncing conditions – yes, that is true – causing her problems which, so far, she’s been unable to overcome.

Given her form away from the grass, the bookies feel almost obliged to have her towards the head of the market – she’s actually second favourite behind Aryna Sabalenka – but she looks opposable.

Swiatek is far from the only star to struggle with the surface, while others are coming in under an injury cloud.

So, if the world number one isn’t going to be the champion, who is?

It looks a tricky betting heat but let’s take a look at each quarter in detail in a bid to find out…

Quarter one

This is top seed Swiatek’s section.

Her first-round draw isn’t the greatest – former Australian Open champion Sofia Kenin will be her opening opponent on Tuesday, while Birmingham winner Yulia Putintseva could follow in round three.

However, it’s the presence of JELENA OSTAPENKO which has really heightened the betting senses.

The Latvian holds a 4-0 record against Swiatek, with the most recent meeting coming at last year’s US Open.

She’s more than adept on grass, having made the semi-finals here in 2018. There’s another quarter-final on her record too.

If Ostapenko can see off another grassophile, Ajla Tomljanovic, in the first round (and she leads the H2H 3-1), she will be very much on Swiatek’s radar.

The problem with Ostapenko is her big-hitting game can go badly wrong and that lack of consistency can be off-putting when you consider backing her.

I’ll keep stakes small and back her to win the quarter at 14/1.

The defending champion, Marketa Vondrousova, is also in this section, although she has been nursing a hip problem since Berlin.

The fact that, like Andy Murray, she’s delayed her pre-tournament press conference until Sunday suggests to me that a decision about her participation may not be made until the last minute.

In any case, the Czech hasn’t reached a final since last year’s surprise triumph here so it’s hard to confident about her chances.

The other name which stands out here is that of Beatriz Haddad Maia.

She’s shown in the past how she’s more than capable on a grasscourt, winning 13 consecutive matches in the lead up to Wimbledon 2022.

However, she’s really struggled for form in 2024 and while I’d hoped the surface switch would kickstart her season, the Brazilian hasn’t been able to produce the wins.

On paper, the 20th seed does have a chance to play herself into some sort of form and if she manages that, then she could make odds of 100/1 appear generous.

Quarter two

The 2022 champion Elena Rybakina heads up this quarter and a player with her serve always warrants respect on grass.

Yet she arrives having quit mid-tournament in Berlin with “abdominal pain”, an issue that now sounds more like an illness than a muscle strain.

Still, it’s hardly the first time her chances of a title have been struck down by some sort of physical issue – she’s also known to suffer with allergies – and it’s becoming harder and harder for punters to trust her at short prices.

In a tricky section, I’m happy to swerve.

We’ve also got some players in good form here.

Jessica Pegula won the Berlin title – the first of her career on grass – while Leylah Fernandez is due to contest the Eastbourne final at time of writing.

Briton Katie Boulter has also played some good tennis on this surface of late, winning the WTA event in Nottingham.

However, it’s ONS JABEUR who catches the eye here, especially at the prices.

The Tunisian has reached the last two Wimbledon finals, playing her unique brand of tennis which is well suited to the grass.

Her court craft is among the best in the women’s game with her ability to mix things up regularly causing problems for her opponents.

Jabeur does have plenty of power from the baseline but her variety allows her to keep her opponents guessing, with the drop shot a big weapon in her arsenal given so many players seem to have issues when they are forced out of their lateral movement rhythm.

Form signs look pretty good coming in, too.

Jabeur played well at the recent French Open, eventually losing in the quarter-finals to Coco Gauff from a set up.

Since moving onto the grass, she’s made the Nottingham quarter-finals where she lost a tight contest with 2021 Wimbledon runner-up Karolina Pliskova, and the same stage in Berlin where illness got the better of her against Gauff.

Last year, Jabeur beat both Rybakina and Sabalenka en route to the final, proving she’s very much part of the grasscourt elite and at a general 14/1 (16s with a couple of firms), she looks a value-added selection.

The one thing you’d be a little concerned about is that she’s failed to produce her A-game in those two finals with nerves appearing to play a part.

However, with her price as it is, there’s plenty of scope for an each-way bet – one we landed on these pages with Jabeur in 2022.

Quarter three

If she’s fully fit, Aryna Sabalenka deserves her position as tournament favourite.

The Belarusian’s serve will win plenty of cheap points on this surface with her power off the ground from the back of the court also a massive weapon.

She’s reached the semi-finals in her last two visits to SW19, those efforts being part of a consistent pattern at the Slams – she’s reached the last four at six of her last seven majors with the odd-one out coming at the recent French Open when she was beaten in the quarter-finals having struggled with illness.

The days of her throwing in a shocker may not be totally over but they’ve certainly reduced considerably.

The worry is it’s just over a week since she quit Berlin with a shoulder issue – hardly ideal for a big server. She looked fine in practice session on Friday but it’s certainly worth noting for anyone backing her at 100/30.

A couple of awkward-looking matches potentially lie in Sabalenka’s draw path, too.

Donna Vekic is a player who’s often delivered good grasscourt results and that’s again been the case this week with the Croatian into the final in Bad Homburg.

Similar things can be said of Daria Kasatkina – a finalist in Eastbourne this week.

She made the staking plan here last season and her court craft is always good to watch.

But she lacks the power of some of her contemporaries and is too often blown away by those with greater weight of shot – it’s not hard to envisage Sabalenka taking her down that way should they meet in the last 16. After all, she’s won seven of their eight previous matches, all in straight sets.

Also in this section is Emma Raducanu, who has shown some good signs in the warm-up events, including a career-best win (by ranking) over Pegula at Eastbourne.

She famously stormed to the 2021 US Open title as a qualifier but it should be remembered that a couple of months before that triumph she made the Wimbledon last 16 as a wild card.

In short, she has the game for grass but, as has long been the case with the Briton, she’s shorter than she should be in the market and it’s hard to get involved at 33s.

I’m also intrigued to see how Mirra Andreeva performs.

The teenager made the semi-finals of the French Open and now returns to Wimbledon where she made the last 16 as a qualifier last season.

She may have to beat Kasatkina to reach the last 16 this time though and I’m not enthused enough to be backing the Russian at 28/1.

Quarter four

Second seed Coco Gauff will likely be pretty happy with her draw.

The American famously announced her name to the world with victory over Venus Williams here back in 2019 when just 15 but returns this year as the US Open champion.

That status should stand her in good stead for a crack at the title.

She made the Berlin semis in the lead-up to this event, although a grasscourt title remains missing from her CV which will be a slight concern for those considering her at 7/1 – half the price she was at the start of the year.

A player who might be worth taking a risk on is Jasmine Paolini.

The Italian recently made the French Open final, a match which saw her predictably drubbed by Swiatek.

Yet her Paris run was just another fine effort in a strong 12 months – she’s now part of the world’s top 10.

Naturally, you wouldn’t think Paolini would be a good fit for grass but the late developer has shown real signs of adding things to her game at the age of 28 and there were more positives at Eastbourne this week where she made the semis.

The recent hot spell may well have hardened the courts a little, which would be a good thing for Paolini, although I’d be more confident is the temperatures were due to get a bit higher than the predicted low-20s.

Naomi Osaka is also in this section and will have her backers after coming within a point of toppling Swiatek in Paris, but she’s too short for me, especially given her relatively poor grasscourt record.

EMMA NAVARRO is having an excellent season and I wouldn’t be surprised to see her get on a roll at a big price – she’s 200/1 for the title and 20s to win the quarter.

The American has made two semi-finals from four tour-level grasscourt appearances and has also reached an ITF World Tour final – the sport’s second tier – on this surface.

The problem is she’s in a very tough part of the draw with Osaka and Victoria Azarenka possible foes before the last 16 but I guess if she’s going to do well, she’ll likely need to beat some decent players.

Let’s take a small punt in the quarter betting.

If Azarenka doesn't make it to round three, maybe Karolina Pliskova will. She rolled back the years to make the final in Nottingham. If her serve fires as it can, the 2021 finalist could make waves.

Still, I’m once again drawn towards MADISON KEYS in this section.

A quarter-finalist here last year (losing to Sabalenka) she has the natural power to take down all-comers on her day.

Those days have increased in frequency of late – she competes here as the 12th seed – while she’s a player who has often delivered her best at the Slams.

Her run to last season’s US Open semi-finals – a match she should have won – was her 10th appearance in the last eight of a Slam. Three of those have come in her last eight appearances.

The American moved onto the grass on the back of a strong claycourt season and she’s already been to the semis in Eastbourne.

That defeat to Fernandez saw her again make too many errors but that’s what you get with a player who hits the ball as hard as Keys does.

For some, her price of 25/1 will be too short – I get that – but I’m prepared to give her another chance, albeit to small stakes.

Posted at 1145 BST on 29/06/24

Safer gambling

We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.

If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.

Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.