Tennis betting tips: Today's Australian Open preview and best bets

Tennis betting tips: Australian Open matches

1pt Tomas Machac (+5.5) to beat Novak Djokovic on the game handicap at evens (Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook)

1pt Magdalena Frech (+5.5) to beat Mirra Andreeva on the game handicap at 3/4 (Unibet, BetMGM, LiveScoreBet)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

Novak Djokovic v Tomas Machac

We all know Djokovic is a 10-time champion here and even if you don’t consider him the greatest player of all time, no-one has surely ever been better at Melbourne Park.

But I was unconvinced about his chances of another title at the start of this year’s tournament and such feelings have only grown across the first two rounds.

Once the model of consistency, Djokovic now looks vulnerable in spells in matches.

So far in Melbourne, he’s lost sets against both wild card Nishesh Basavareddy and qualifier Jaime Faria.

Neither man is ranked in the world top 100 so facing 25th-ranked Machac is a considerable step up.

Djokovic will also know this is a player who has troubled him in the past.

Last season in Geneva, Machac claimed an upset win and while that match was on clay, their only previous hardcourt match – in Dubai in 2023 – was only settled by a final-set tie-break.

Back then, Djokovic was playing considerably better than he is now and I feel he could be vulnerable here.

I noted a recent interview with Machac which appeared on the ATP website in which he admitted: “I like the [big] tournaments, and I like to play against the best players. For me, it's great practice to push me up and up.”

Perhaps you’d expect him to say that but his coach, Daniel Vacek, was in agreement, adding: “He really loves to play on the centre courts, on the big courts with a lot of people against the top guys. He really enjoys the top guys, the top events.”

For the record, this match will open Friday’s night session on the Rod Laver Arena, Melbourne Park’s biggest showcourt.

Those ‘big-match’ claims are backed up by last autumn’s upset of Carlos Alcaraz in Shanghai.

My worry here would be that things haven’t gone perfectly in physical terms over the past couple of months. There was a disrupted pre-season, while a retirement followed the recent United Cup.

Still, the Czech did beat Hubert Hurkacz there and fully tested Casper Ruud and Taylor Fritz, whom he led when that retirement came, but maybe that fitness issue could be a factor if this goes long.

It’s a bit of a worry for the bet I’m putting up which is Machac to cover the 5.5-game handicap line.

I was tempted to switch and back him instead to win the first set at 2/1 but I’m going to stick with my original viewpoint that he can really test the former champion, who hasn’t played anyone this highly ranked since early October.

• CLICK HERE to back Machac (+5.5) on the game handicap with Sky Bet

Magdalena Frech v Mirra Andreeva

This is a day I struggled to find anything I had strong views on, hence the low stakes, but I do feel Frech has the ability to test Andreeva here.

There are just 11 ranking places between the pair but one is 2/9 and the other 7/2.

The higher-ranked Andreeva really struggled to reach this stage, coming through an almighty battle with Moyuka Uchijima in the last round.

The Japanese served for the match in the final set and led the ensuing champions’ tie-break 8-6 before her teenage opponent got over the line.

Still, it wasn’t a good display from Andreeva, who delivered 53 unforced errors, and a repeat could well leave her in trouble in this one.

Frech enjoyed some fine results on hardcourts in 2024, notably right here at Melbourne Park where she reached the last 16 of a Grand Slam for the first time, notching a win over Caroline Garcia.

In the latter part of the year, more top-20 stars were defeated, Diana Shnaider, Emma Navarro and Beatriz Haddad Maia all beaten during the Asian swing. There was also a maiden WTA title in Guadalajara.

The Pole will fight fire with fire here in terms of baseline aggression and while I accept that if Andreeva brings her ‘A’ game, she’ll likely win, I do feel that French is overpriced.

I’ll side with her on the handicap, with odds of 3/4 with a 5.5-game start certainly of interest.

• CLICK HERE to back Frech (+5.5) on the game handicap with Sky Bet

Preview posted 1435 GMT on 16/01/25

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