With the 2024 tennis season fast approaching, Andy Schooler brings you his best bets for the ATP Tour campaign as a whole.
Tennis betting tips: 2024 ATP Tour season
1pt Jannik Sinner to be year-end world number one at 7/1 (Unibet, BetUK)
3pts Holger Rune to finish in the world’s top 10 at 4/6 (Unibet, BetUK)
3pts Arthur Fils to finish in the world’s top 35 at 7/10 (Unibet, BetUK)
2pts Andrey Rublev to reach a Grand Slam semi-final at 11/4 (bet365)
3pts Hubert Hurkacz to serve the most aces at 7/4 (Coral, Ladbrokes)
Year-end number one
In 2023, the favourite won what is probably the most prominent pre-season betting market, so can Novak Djokovic do it again?
Plenty will doubtless refuse to back against him after he won three of the four Grand Slam titles and was the beaten finalist in the other. For the record, he’s a best price of 18/1 (bet365) to win all four in 2024.
bet365 are maybe taking a chance offering even money about Djokovic winning this market for the ninth time in his career.
However, that’s a short price to be locking up your money for the best part of a year, while the Serb will turn 37 in May. Yes, he’s a physical specimen but signs of age will show sooner or later.
It’s also fair to say that the challengers are getting closer.
Carlos Alcaraz, the year-end top dog in 2022, denied Djokovic at Wimbledon and will surely have more to say in the coming campaign.
Holger Rune is another young gun I’m expecting more from in 2024 – but more on him later.
In terms of this market, JANNIK SINNER could offer some value.
When breaking through, the Italian was often talked about as a future world number one but there has been less such noise in recent times.
However, Sinner enjoyed a superb second half of 2023, going 32-5 from the start of Wimbledon. Significantly, he was 9-2 against the top 10 during that run, his two losses both coming to Djokovic.
Yet he also beat the Serb twice, once at the ATP Finals in Turin and then right at the end of the campaign in the Davis Cup Finals, where he helped Italy claim the trophy.
That’s quite a platform from which to begin 2024 and if he is able to continue that sort of form in the new campaign, Sinner will very much have the chance to deliver here at 7/1.
What he will need to do is improve his Grand Slam results – he’s made just one semi-final so far – but I still think this is a value price if you are prepared to take on Djokovic.
To finish in the top 10
Coming back to HOLGER RUNE, I’m very keen to back the Dane in 2024.
It was easy to forget what a great talent Rune is during his post-Wimbledon slump which saw him win just one of nine matches.
However, there was a reason for that – a back injury sparked it all off – and it may have inadvertently led to a big positive.
Would Rune have been looking for coaching solutions had he continued on his merry way? The first half of 2023 had gone swimmingly with Masters 1000 finals reached in Monte Carlo and Rome followed by a run to the last eight at Wimbledon.
When things went awry, Rune sensibly looked for answers and he duly appointed Boris Becker as coach, a man who has not only won Grand Slams himself but also one who has guided Djokovic to them from the sidelines.
Becker’s influence was felt almost immediately with Rune showing plenty of encouraging signs in the closing weeks of the season.
He made the Basel semis and twice took Djokovic to a deciding set, also doing the same against Sinner at the ATP Finals.
With an off-season of training in the bank, I’m expecting Rune to be back to his best in 2024 and will happily back him at 4/6 to finish in the top 10.
Admittedly, that’s not a price for everyone but given Rune made 2023’s top eight despite a miserable three months in mid-season, I can see him delivering here, no problem.
To finish in the top 35
ARTHUR FILS finished 2023 as the ATP Tour’s highest-ranked teenager – he looks to be going places.
The Frenchman finished 2023 as the world number 36, yet the Kambi sportsbook has chalked him up at 7/10 to make just a one-spot improvement in 2024. That is worth taking.
Fils won his maiden ATP title in 2023 in Lyon and looks to have the all-court game which will bring many more.
The serve is a strong point, as is the forehand which produces more spin than virtually anyone on the tour.
Fils is another player refusing to stand still and he hired Sebastien Grosjean as coach late in the year. The former France Davis Cup captain is being joined in 2024 by two-time French Open champion Sergi Bruguera, who knows a thing or two about playing with heavy topspin.
I really don’t see Fils being a player who is going to slip back in 2024 and, injury permitting, I expect him, very much, to be part of the top 35 come the end of the season.
To reach a Grand Slam semi-final
Long-term readers will know I have often made a case for ANDREY RUBLEV when he’s looked overpriced.
Admittedly, he’s often let me down (certainly at the Slams) but the Russian did deliver a tasty 66/1 winner for us when he claimed the title in Monte Carlo last season.
I think he’s overpriced again here and will take a shot accordingly.
Some of you will be quick to point out that Rublev, now 26, has never played in a Grand Slam semi-final and that’s certainly true.
But he’s played in nine quarter-finals and is constantly banging on the door of the last four.
Rublev has reached the quarter-finals in five of his last six Grand Slam tournaments and while an 0-9 record in such matches could well become something of a mental block, you’d think that sooner or later he’s going to land a decent draw which helps him progress.
With no reason to expect Rublev to drop off in 2024 – he’s been a member of the top 10 for all bar two weeks of the last three years – I think getting 11/4 about him taking that one extra step in the coming season is worth backing.
To serve the most aces
This market produced this column’s big winner last season, HUBERT HURKACZ delivering at 14/1.
The Pole is favourite this time around but that doesn’t mean he’s not worth a bet.
Hurkacz demolished the opposition in ace terms in 2023, hammering down 1,031 clean service winners, that’s 339 more than he nearest rival, Taylor Fritz.
He did so in fewer matches, too – Hurkacz played 69 matches last season, whereas the other players who finished in the top five of the aces table (Fritz, Rublev, Alex Zverev and Daniil Medvedev) all contested at least 77.
That suggests he’s got plenty of room for error heading into the new campaign.
Of course, there may well be other challengers in 2024.
However, one of the great servers, Nick Kyrgios, is unlikely to be one of them – he’s already out of the early part of 2024 and is more likely to be seen baiting former professionals on Twitter than on the court.
Reilly Opelka is widely considered the main danger to Hurkacz here – he topped 1,000 aces back in 2019.
The 6ft 11in American is returning to the tour after a long-term injury, last playing at tour level in August 2022. Even his comeback at Challenger level lasted only one match in October before a withdrawal.
Regardless of Opelka’s fitness at the start of the new season, I struggle to see him playing enough matches to challenge Hurkacz’s aces total.
Alexander Bublik (10/1) is a possible alternative. He won this market in 2021 but, again, you have to question whether he’ll play enough matches.
He managed only 48 last season, averaging 11.3 aces in each of them. Hurkacz’s average was 14.9.
I’ll therefore go with ‘Hubi’ again, albeit at a considerably lower price.
Posted at 1500 GMT on 20/12/23
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