Tennis betting tips: Olympic Games preview and best bets, women's singles

Olympics betting tips: Paris 2024

1pt e.w. Jasmine Paolini at 20/1 (General)

1pt e.w. Qinwen Zheng at 25/1 (General)

0.5pt e.w. Yulia Putintseva at 250/1 (BetVictor)

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Olympic Games – Women’s Singles

• Roland Garros, Paris, France (outdoor clay)

Iga Swiatek has won four of the last five French Opens, 10 of her last 16 claycourt tournaments and 77 of her last 83 matches on clay.

Given all that, it’s no wonder she’s heavily odds-on – around 1/2 – to win gold back at Roland Garros this week when the world’s best gather at the Olympic Games.

I say world’s best but in fact two of the WTA’s top four are absent – Elena Rybakina a late withdrawal, joining Aryna Sabalenka on the sidelines.

That further explains why Swiatek is so short – for the record, she went off at 4/6 for this year’s French Open.

She was again largely impressive then, although it should be remembered she came within a point of defeat in the second round.

I’ve no interest in backing someone at such a price, particularly in an event which has had more than its fair share of upsets over the years. At this stage, it’s worth pointing out the last two Olympic champions have been Belinda Bencic and Monica Puig.

Swiatek may well win but the Roland Garros courts are likely to play faster this week than they usually do at the French Open – temperatures are predicted to push past the 30C mark which should help the more aggressive players and won’t be ideal for the favourite.

The Pole must also deal with having the weight of national expectation on her shoulders. Wearing a Team Poland top brings a different pressure and she’s already copped some flak for opting out of both the athletes’ village and the opening ceremony, at which she might have been expected to carry her nation’s flag.

Thursday’s draw also threw up some potential pitfalls.

Last week’s Budapest champion, Diana Shnaider, or Linda Noskova, who beat Swiatek at this year’s Australian Open, are possible third-round opponents. Then there’s Jelena Ostapenko lurking in her quarter too – the Latvian famously holds a 4-0 record against Swiatek, knocking her out of last year’s US Open.

At least Rybakina – the only player to beat Swiatek on clay in the past 12 months – has been removed from her half of the draw but, again, it’s not an ideal route through to the final.

I much prefer to look elsewhere and will back a couple of players at much more attractive prices.

I like the chances of QINWEN ZHENG, who is in second quarter, where Rybakina had been due to play.

The Kazakh’s withdrawal is a boost for the seventh seed – the other seeds in this section are now Emma Navarro, Leylah Fernandez and Caroline Garcia.

Zheng, runner-up at the Australian Open in January, has one of the best serves on the WTA Tour and also possesses a real forehand weapon. She should be happy with the temperatures moving up.

She’s also in good form, having warmed up for this tournament by winning in Palermo last week.

Clay is a strong surface for her and it’s certainly significant that winning Olympic gold is seen as the height of sporting success in China.

Make no mistake, she will be fully motivated.

I’m also going to take one in the bottom half, namely JASMINE PAOLINI.

I just can’t have someone who’s just made the finals of both the French Open and Wimbledon at 20/1.

After her loss to Barbora Krejcikova in SW19, she’s back on her favourite surface, one on which she played so well here, just a few weeks ago.

She’s now the third-highest ranked player in this field so I’m not sure why she’s such a big price.

Perhaps the presence of Mirra Andreeva in her section has a little to do with it – the pair could meet in round two. However, it should be remembered that the Russian won just four games when they faced off in the semis of the French Open last month.

Paolini is riding the crest of a wave right now and simply looks overpriced.

Finally, I’m keen to get with someone at a chunky price given the Olympics’ ability to throw up a surprise or two.

It makes sense to head to bottom quarter which, if you are prepared to take on second seed Coco Gauff (as I am), looks wide open.

And the one I’m plumping for is Kazakh firebrand YULIA PUTINTSEVA.

She’s enjoyed a very good past three months on the tour, showing her claycourt ability with a run to the quarter-finals of the Madrid Open, where she beat top-10 seeds Zheng and Daria Kasatkina.

In Rome, she won a couple of matches before running into Swiatek.

Her good form continued when she hit the grass, winning eight matches in a row on the surface, a run which took in the Birmingham title and saw her topple the top-seeded Swiatek at Wimbledon.

Essentially, confidence is flowing right now and while she has an awkward first-round match with seed Marta Kostyuk to negotiate (NB, the Ukrainian’s form she dipped of late), odds of 250/1 are rather tempting.

It would be nice to think that Putintseva can ‘do a Puig’ and go all the way…

Previous results from the women’s singles at the Olympic Games

• 2020 – 1 Bencic, 2 Vondrousova, 3 Svitolina, 4 Rybakina
• 2016 – 1 Puig, 2 Kerber, 3 Kvitova, 4 Keys
• 2012 – 1 S Williams, 2 Sharapova, 3 Azarenka, 4 Kirilenko
• 2008 – 1 Dementieva, 2 Safina, 3 Zvonareva, 4 Li Na*
• 2004 – 1 Henin-Hardenne, 2 Mauresmo, 3 Molik, 4 Myskina
• 2000 – 1 V Williams, 2 Dementieva, 3 Seles, 4 Dokic*
• 1996 – 1 Davenport*, 2 Sanchez-Vicario, 3 Novotna, 4 Fernandez*
• 1992 – 1 Capriati, 2 Graf, 3= Sanchez-Vicario & Fernandez
• 1988 – 1 Graf, 2 Sabatini, 3= Maleeva & Garrison

Asterisk indicates player from host nation

Posted at 2020 BST on 25/07/24

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