Andy Schooler previews the semi-finals of the Miami Open, including Novak Djokovic v Grigor Dimitrov.
Tennis betting tips: Miami Open semi-finals
2pts Novak Djokovic to beat Grigor Dimitrov 2-0 at 4/5 (bet365)
Novak Djokovic v Grigor Dimitrov (1900 GMT)
I’m definitely with Djokovic here.
He’s playing the best I’ve seen from him in some time and is yet to lose a set in Miami. Even when he fell into a spot of bother against Sebastian Korda on Thursday, he extricated himself well to win in straight sets.
Now he faces a player he’s beaten 12 times out of 13, winning the last 10 and all eight played on a hardcourt.
Eleven of the last 12 sets they’ve played have been won by the Serb and I’m quite happy to back Djokovic to win in straights again here.
After beating Korda, he was happy to admit that “I’ve been serving really well the whole tournament” and breaking serve has been a big problem for Dimitrov in their series.
Djokovic has held serve 87% of the time across those 13 matches, also winning 30% of Dimitrov’s service games. That’s very much a winning combination. Add the hardcourt filter and the figures rise to 88-31.
In three of the eight hardcourt meetings, including two of the last three, the Bulgarian hasn’t even created a break point.
For me, Dimitrov needs to arrive at this match in tip-top form and shape and then hope for a Djokovic dip.
While the latter could happen, it’s pretty much unquestionable that the former isn’t the case.
Dimitrov has had to come through two wars with Karen Khachanov and Francisco Cerundolo to reach this stage and he looked completely shot after his match with the latter on Wednesday evening.
Yes, he’s had more time between matches than his opponent but Dimitrov hasn’t been the best at recovering in recent times and his injury record this season isn’t good.
Frankly he was fortunate to win that Cerundolo match, surviving match point in a contest littered with errors from both players.
I expect Djokovic to win this pretty comfortably and 4/5 about a straight-sets win looks a solid play to me.
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Jakub Mensik v Taylor Fritz (2300 GMT)
I didn’t see Fritz’s win over Matteo Berrettini in the last round but he continued his winning ways, despite losing his first set of the tournament.
He probably shouldn’t have – the American had six match points to close the match out in the second set – but that ability to refocus having missed so many chances is to be applauded.
Mensik has also lost just one set so set – back in round one to Roberto Bautista Agut – although he did benefit from a walkover in the last 16 before Arthur Fils faded away rather disappointingly, certainly for those of us who were on him outright at 90/1.
He’s a fine shot-maker who certainly has the potential to trouble the favourite here, although I do feel the odds are about right.
You have to wonder how much baggage Mensik will bring to the court given he won only three games in the pair’s only previous meeting which came at the 2023 US Open. Fritz won 91% of his first-serve points that day and didn’t have to face a break point.
Of course, Mensik has improved a lot since then but that was a chastening experience for the young Czech, one which could affect him in what is arguably the biggest match of his career to date.
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Posted at 1050 GMT on 28/03/25
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